Biggest driver of BTC and asset prices that nobody has the guts to discuss, and how I am planning to respond!
I have said it before and now it very badly needs to be said again . . .
Markets HATE uncertainty (often even more than they hate bad news).
Our recent bonus buy signal was triggered when BTC broke out of a nice and tight classic bull flag pattern when the price rose above $82,283 on Monday, September 21, 2026.
Following that buy signal, the price spent most of the next 60 days consolidating in another small range around that breakout price of $82,283, as it continued to hold strong and/or rise over most of the past four months, all in the face of a steady stream of ostensibly bad news.
Then, a couple of days ago on October 29, 2026, Binance, the worlds largest crypto exchange, announced that its hot wallets were hacked for $6.2 B. That very negative news, when coupled with the fast approaching resolution of the world’s biggest and most momentous uncertainty, was enough to drive the price significantly below the natural support of level $82,283, all the way down to a low of $76,141, on Friday October 30, 2026, on relatively high volume.
Friday’s market action formed a new sell signal that, if triggered, will tell me that the recent bonus buy signal has failed, and to liquidate (SELL) positions that were bought on that previous $82,283 breakout buy signal, but only if and when BTC closes below $76,141.
The information above will govern my response to an anticipated increase in price action volatility.
The information below will explain what has been, and is expected to continue to be, the expected primary driver of the price action through the end of 2026 and into the earliest days of 2027.
TRIGGER WARNING: Your author has a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience in matters of money, finance, business and investments. But has never been interested in politics, whether in general or by party. However, like many of us, with the recent onslaught of fast accelerating, rampant and rapacious incursions of political actors into nearly every major aspect of business, finance, and investments, I have now been forced to take a far greater interest in politics. But my interest is purely and completely non-partisan. I have no interest in party politics. I am only interested in the ever increasing economic effects caused by political actions. That interest is now revealing a roadmap for the future of business, finance, economics and investments, immediately ahead.
I now fully recognize that many people can’t handle the truth, because they have not learned that putting facts before feelings leads to better decisions and better outcomes.
So as I gather, organize and report the facts, in the most fair and balanced, straightforward, clear and unbiased manner of which I am capable, I do not intend to show any favor to one side or another. Rather, my only bias is in favor of truth, honor and justice which history has shown to be the most well-proven path to enduring prosperity. So if any of my views or opinions offend you (or even just the very strong and straight words that I use to attempt to simplify, clarify and emphasize very important points), then just know it is purely unintentional and please accept my apologies.
Whether you love it or hate it, since the end of World War II, the USA has been leading the world by nearly every measure. But now, it is quite arguable, that its leadership position may well be on its way into the dustbin of history.
Now, onto the roadmap!
Excluding the fast growing sub group who have lowered themselves and abandoned all sense of truth, honor, justice or independence; to engage in borderline and/or absolute criminal behavior to participate in the grand theft of US resources, which is far too politely called “corruption” (which is a word which sounds more like a mere bad attitude than what it actually is, officially condoned STEALING); here is what the world’s smartest investors are really looking at while preparing to adjust their positions accordingly (remembering that what investors hate most is unnecessary uncertainty):
It is far bigger and will be far more determinate that any of the usual dozens of economic metrics that are constantly bandied about.
Rather, it is the results of the US Mid-Term Elections scheduled for this Tuesday November 3, 2026.
More specifically, it will come down to whether or not the opposition party (Democrat) is able to thereby re-take sufficient control of Congress to be able to stop the continuation of the current reign of terror that has caused widespread death and destruction over the prior two years, during which every branch of government has been under the control of the cult of lying, cheating and thieving automaton followers of a clearly demented (and/or otherwise out of control and megalomaniac) wanna-be dictator; who have captured the former Republican party (which now remains in name only and should be renamed the MAGA party to reflect that reality).
The biggest and most impactful questions regarding our investments and nearly every other aspect of our lives going forward, will be answered if and when the votes have been fully and freely cast, are accurately recorded and counted, all without any federal interference, and the winners of the majority of those votes are finally certified and seated in Congress.
Only then will we know if the majority of US voters are in favor of:
1. Continuation of the march down the slippery slope of constant chaos toward permanent dictatorship, or, the return to the reliable dependability of the rule of law and democracy?
2. Continuation of congressional aiding and abetting of lawless chaos, death and destruction of every kind and nature all around the world, or, its return to standing up to uphold their solemn oaths to defend the Constitution, specifically including its most important provision for the separation of powers?
3. Continuation of the betrayal of our closest, most important and most reliable allies, or, return to our consistent support for them?
4. Continue to support a clownish and apparently compromised dictator causing daily chaos by engaging in the world’s biggest grand theft by corrupt cronyism ever imaginable, using all of the most well-proven failing tricks in history to sell out the country to the highest bidders among the world’s small but most rapacious group of officially condoned looters that the world has ever seen; or, a return to the serious and sober democratic rule of law that is the most well-proven means of creating the fertile foundation for the most stable long-term reliability and wide-spread prosperity?
5. Continuation of having the value of our individual contributions measured by obedience to a dictator, or, a return to measurement by actual merit?
6. Continue with tariffs that ushered in the depths of the last world depression, or, return to freer trade for stronger economies, greater supplies and lower prices?
7. Stay on the tariffs, economic central planning, and officially condoned theft which grease the increasingly slippery slide towards a world-wide depression at best and world and/or civil war at the worst, or, return to the rule of law while staying true to the clear lessons of economic history for enduring prosperity?
8. Supporting representatives who rise to provide truthful public service, or, those who sink to specialize in lies and public gaslighting?
9. Supporting representatives who rise to vote for peace and freedom, or, those who prefer to sacrifice the lives of others and waste money on violence, oppression and war?
Those imminent answers will be the biggest determinant of the shorter term path of the price of BTC, but not its eventual longer term destination.
Providing the world’s most level and reliable playing field to all who came to work to fulfill their dreams of improving their lives, was the true primary driver of what really made America great.
That field was made and kept level and reliable by the rule of law, as opposed to the chaotic and misinformed whims of dictators.
So it stands to reason that the judicious re-leveling, of that now radically tilted field, is the most reliable and perhaps the only enduring way to re-start the US and world march to ever higher heights of greatness and enduring prosperity.
Let’s now hope that the majority of US voters are now finally able to see these foundational issues clearly enough to cast their votes for betterment not bitterness!
If they do that, then we will be on our way to getting back on the right track toward a world of betterment not bitterness.
Otherwise, in the absence of any very significant course corrections, it appears that that we will continue the current slide towards the additional pain and suffering of another deflationary world-wide depression (and/or the hyper-inflation caused by desperate efforts to contain it).
In deflation, nearly all asset prices fall. BTC is an asset which would also be expected to fall. So in that case, our resting GTC buy orders to use our remaining available cash to add to our positions at the $50,000 and $25,000 may still have an opportunity to be filled.
And even in deflationary times, when desperate and arcane interventions have historically come to the fore, BTC has unique structural advantages which are designed to be resistant to such interventions, such that BTC should retain more value that every other risk asset class and thereby decline less (or even potentially rise against the tide).
But in the more likely event that fast and furious interventions will be nearly immediately deployed to ride to the rescue with radical stimulus ala Covid times; that is where the key differentiating advantage of BTC will really shine the brightest. Because while all asset prices will be expected to rise, BTC will be expected to rise the most, because it is the only asset in human history which has its total supply hard-capped at 21 million whole Bitcoins, and therefore, its value is protected against being inflated away by any increase in its supply.
Unlike EVERY other asset, no matter how high its price may rise, the supply remains strictly limited to a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins!
The same is NOT true, even for the world’s second hardest asset, gold.
Because when gold prices rise, more gold mining operations become economically feasible and come on line to find and produce more gold, which eventually results in an increase in supply which then mutes the gold price rise, or even goes further causing the price of gold to reverse and go into decline.
So the imminent answers provided by the US Mid-Term elections will be the biggest determinant of the shorter term path of the price of BTC, but not its eventual longer term destination.
Therefore, the key core thinking remains the same:
Again, the most well-reasoned economic decision that we can hope to make during anticipated difficulties, continues, through thick and thin, to be this:
HODL (Hold On For Dear Life) to the majority of your BTC.
The information provided is also intended to apply to the BTC spot ETF’s, but only as adjusted to their equivalent prices, and . . .
Best wishes!!!
Disclaimers: The views in this article are the author’s personal views. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with their advisor. The information provided in this article has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, crypto currencies and money market funds involves the risk of loss. Their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated in the future.
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