Chain of Thoughts 2026–10–29
Neither Israeli bloc reached 61 seats, the caretaker government keeps its war powers, and Brent rose on reports Washington is planning strikes after the midterms. Bitcoin’s ETFs had a second straight inflow day, and the price didn’t move.
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The Verdict
Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $80,462, up 0.07%. Fund money came in for a second day and sentiment rose back above 50, but the price ended the window where it started. Bitcoin sits 1.5% above the $79,300 floor and 1.9% below $82,000, and the Fed decision lands three hours after this window closes. Lean: neutral. A daily close above $82,000 turns it constructive. A close below $79,000 opens $76,500 and $75,000. Friday’s options expiry has its max-pain point at $78,000, 3.1% below the current price #6.
Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, and funds, banks, listed companies and governments now hold it. The long-term case is that this holder base keeps growing faster than new coins are mined. You pay for that with volatility. Bitcoin still trades with tech stocks, oil and rates, so a 20–30% drawdown can happen without the case breaking.
Ethereum — short term. $2,330.96, down 0.45%. Spot ether ETFs lost about $60 million on Tuesday, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone shedding $93.3 million while Fidelity’s FETH took in $28.6 million #4. That makes about $149 million out over two days. ETH is 1.4% above $2,300, and a daily close below it opens $2,200. $2,500 is 7.3% above.
Ethereum — long term. The bet is that money, funds and securities settle on Ethereum, which would make ETH the collateral of tokenized finance. This week’s tokenization news shows the infrastructure is being built. What’s still unproven is how much of the value it creates reaches ETH holders rather than the apps and layer-2 networks on top.
Cardano — short term. $0.2029, down 1.1%, the weakest of the majors. ADA is 1.4% above $0.20, close enough that one bad session decides it. $0.2315 is 14.1% above. A daily close below $0.20 would hand back the level ADA has defended all month.
Cardano — long term. At roughly $7.6 billion, Cardano’s market value is far larger than its fees, DeFi deposits and active users explain on their own. The rest of the price is a bet that a slow, peer-reviewed network wins where mistakes are costly. Put the valuation next to the usage, and make your own call.
Solana and the rest. SOL $100.90 (+0.15%) is holding $100. A Korean broker, Mirae Asset Securities, issued tokenized notes on Solana #15. BNB $748.43 (−0.26%) slipped back under $750. XRP $1.31 (−0.6%) fell on the same day Moody’s gave Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin an A2 rating #16 and Coinbase listed RLUSD across its platforms #17. Ripple’s business is growing faster than XRP’s price.
Why The Market Is Here
Israel voted, and the strike option survived. With 93% of polling stations counted, Netanyahu’s bloc held 53 seats, Eisenkot’s 48 and the Arab parties 19. No camp has 61 #1. More than half a million double-envelope ballots, many from soldiers, are counted through Thursday evening. Ynet’s key line for markets: a caretaker government keeps the formal authority to approve military action, and the assessment is that a strike decision would still pass unanimously #1. The vote that could have changed Israel’s position on the war left it unchanged. The shekel and Israeli bonds fell on the deadlock #3.
Oil heard the same thing. Brent rose 1.7% to $115.86 and WTI 2.7% to $102.57 on reports the US is preparing to resume strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms #2. On Tuesday Brent had settled down $1.93 at $113.88 on hopes for diplomacy #25. So oil gave back its diplomacy discount within a day. Al Jazeera is asking whether Gulf states now want a regional security pact with Tehran #7, which shows how seriously the region is treating the risk of a second round.
Bitcoin ignored the barrel again. A 1.7% rise in oil on war headlines didn’t move bitcoin, and neither did a flat Nasdaq waiting on Big Tech earnings. China’s stock market has lost about $2.4 trillion as investors doubt its AI spending will pay off #22, and that didn’t move bitcoin either. Bitcoin is set by the next rate decision now, not by war headlines.
The Fed is the next mover, and it lands after the window. Markets priced roughly a 7% chance of a hike on Wednesday and about 73% for December #6. The statement is mostly priced in. What matters is whether Warsh confirms December at the press conference or leaves it open #24.
Washington’s crypto window, one more data point. The Block reports the industry is preparing for different congressional oversight after the midterms #8, and Democrats have said they’d investigate the Trump family’s crypto ties if they win a chamber #9. If that happens, oversight hearings replace market-structure bills on the agenda. Price in a shorter legislative window than the current market assumes.
Who is pushing, and why.
ETF buyers came back, from two issuers this time. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $176 million on Tuesday: IBIT about $150 million, Fidelity’s FBTC $24.5 million, with no flows elsewhere #4. That narrowed October’s net outflow to about $26 million #5. Bitcoin went from $80,429 to $80,462 over the same period, so roughly $286 million of fund buying over two days produced no price change. Either sellers are absorbing it or the buying is covering short hedges. Neither is a breakout.Exchanges had a security problem. Coinbase said an analytics vendor exposed customer data and that funds weren’t affected #10, and Bithumb disclosed that hackers accessed an internal system and leaked personal data #11. Neither breach touched coins. Both raise the chance of phishing campaigns against users of those exchanges in the weeks ahead.A custody failure, in public. Datavault AI’s stock fell 50% after the company said it couldn’t withdraw bitcoin tied to a $150 million deal #19. That’s the risk of owning claims on bitcoin instead of bitcoin.
Institutional Pulse
Tokenization arrived before the rules did. A DTCC unit launched tokenization services #12, Google Cloud outlined an MPC custody service for institutional bitcoin #20, and Mirae put notes on Solana. Pushback came on the same day. JPMorgan and Coca-Cola are among seven more companies objecting to OKX and ICE tokenizing their stock #13, and Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev warned that US uncertainty keeps “serious assets” away #14. Euronext halted CoinShares’ Zcash ETP before its debut over settlement concerns #21. The infrastructure is moving faster than the companies whose shares get tokenized are willing to accept.
Ripple is building revenue, not token demand. Ripple expects a $900 million annualized product revenue run rate as its institutional business grows #18. An investment-grade stablecoin is a strong product. Its users don’t need to hold XRP.
Robinhood: crypto beat while the company missed. Robinhood missed Q3 earnings, but crypto revenue rose about 20% and Robinhood Chain brought in $26 million #23. Retail is still trading, just not enough to move the overall result.
OTC context. Two inflow days with a flat price fit with large holders selling into ETF demand through desks rather than on exchanges. Watch for the MARA-linked coins at Galaxy, or Strategy’s November 2 filing, to show who supplied the other side.
Calendar Watch
Thursday 03:00 JST (Wed 2:00 pm ET): Fed decision, then Warsh at 03:30 JST. This is the first number after the window closes. December guidance matters more than the rate.
Thursday 8:30 am ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE. It follows the Fed by less than a day, so a hot print would test whatever Warsh said.
Thursday evening Israel time: double-envelope count finishes. It’s unlikely to give either bloc 61 seats, but it decides whether coalition talks run through Netanyahu or around him.
Friday, October 30: monthly Deribit expiry. About $11.1 billion in bitcoin options expire, with max pain at $78,000 and the largest call position at $95,000, well out of the money #6. Expiry pins the price only when contracts sit near the current price. If the Fed pushes bitcoin toward $78,000, Friday’s expiry could hold it there.
Friday is also October’s last trading day. ETF flows need about $26 million more of net inflow to end the month positive.
Signals Worth Watching
Rates vs. war: one more session. Bitcoin is 2.5% below $82,500. The Fed lands after this window, so the tracker closes in Friday’s edition. If bitcoin is still below $82,500 then, the conclusion stands: in October, neither yields nor the war set bitcoin’s price. Crypto’s own flows did.
ETF breadth. FBTC joined IBIT, the first sign of the second issuer this signal needed. One more inflow day, with a third issuer, and October closes positive with breadth. That would be the first real turn in fund demand since mid-month.
Price vs. flows. $286 million of inflows produced no price change. If inflows keep coming and price still can’t clear $82,000, someone large is distributing, and a break of $79,000 becomes more likely, not less.
Brent at $110. Brent moved further from that level, not closer. Oil is now pricing the post-midterm strike reports, not the talks.
What would change the thesis. Upside: a Warsh who takes December off the table, followed by a daily close above $82,000 and a third consecutive inflow day. Downside: a confirmed December hike with a hot PCE print, a daily close under $79,000, or the expiry pulling price to $78,000 and holding there.
If I Had $100 This Month
The Fed decides three hours after this window closes, and fund money has come back without lifting the price. You don’t need to guess the outcome. Split your buying around it.
$60 → BTC. Buy one half after the Warsh press conference and the other after Friday’s expiry, since max pain at $78,000 is the level the next 48 hours could test.$25 → ETH. ETF outflows are concentrated in one BlackRock fund while Fidelity’s is adding, so buy near $2,300 and treat a close below it as the sign to wait.$15 → ADA. It’s 1.4% above $0.20 and the weakest major today, so buy on a fixed schedule and don’t add to the position on a break.
Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.
This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.
Sources
#1 — Israel election results: Netanyahu bloc at 53 seats, Eisenkot bloc at 48 as nearly all votes counted — Ynet News#2 — Oil price today: WTI, Brent rise — CNBC#3 — Israeli bonds, shekel fall as election leaves Netanyahu and others far short of majorities — CNBC#4 — US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Draw $176 Million in Second Straight Day of Inflows — Bloomingbit#5 — Bitcoin ETFs shrink October outflows to $26M — Cryptopolitan#6 — Bitcoin Price Prediction: Fed on Wednesday, $11.1 Billion Expiry on Friday — CryptoTicker#7 — Are GCC countries looking for a regional security pact with Iran? — Al Jazeera#8 — Crypto braces for potential shift in congressional oversight after midterms — The Block#9 — Democrats Raring to Probe Trump Crypto Ties if They Win Midterms — Bloomberg Law#10 — Coinbase Customer Data Hit in Analytics Vendor Breach, Funds ‘Not Impacted’ — Decrypt#11 — Bithumb Says Hackers Accessed Internal System, Leaking Personal Data — Decrypt#12 — DTCC unit launches tokenization services — Cointelegraph#13 — JPMorgan, Coca-Cola Among 7 More Companies Objecting to OKX-ICE Tokenized Stocks — Decrypt#14 — Robinhood’s Tenev warns US tokenization uncertainty deters ‘serious assets’ — Cointelegraph#15 — Mirae Asset Securities issues tokenized notes on Solana — Cointelegraph#16 — Moody’s assigns investment-grade ratings to Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin — The Block#17 — Coinbase adds Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin across retail, exchange and Prime platforms — The Block#18 — Ripple expects $900 million annualized product revenue run rate as institutional business expands — The Block#19 — Datavault AI stock plummets 50% after firm says it cannot withdraw bitcoin tied to $150 million deal — The Block#20 — Google Cloud outlines MPC service for institutional Bitcoin custody — Cointelegraph#21 — Settlement concerns prompt Euronext to halt CoinShares’ Zcash ETP ahead of debut — Cointelegraph#22 — China’s Stock Market Has Lost $2.4 Trillion as Investors Doubt Its AI Boom Will Ever Pay Off — Decrypt#23 — Robinhood Chain brings in $26 million as crypto revenue rises 20% in Q3 — The Block#24 — Fed Rate Decision: What Markets and Bitcoin Traders Can Expect — Decrypt#25 — Crude Oil Futures Pull Back; Hormuz Attacks Hit Record High but Prices Stay Near Multi-Month Peak — BigGo Finance
Market Data
Asset Price 24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC) $80,462 +0.07%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,330.96 -0.45%
Cardano (ADA) $0.2029 -1.10%
Solana (SOL) $100.90 +0.15%
BNB $748.43 -0.26%
XRP $1.31 -0.60%Fear & Greed: 51 — Neutral (was 48 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.19% · Nasdaq: -0.01% · DXY: 102.36 (-0.04%) · Gold: $4,055 (-0.04%)
(Crypto snapshot 01:04 JST Thu. S&P, Nasdaq, DXY and CME gold are Wednesday intraday, ~12:00 pm ET, before the Fed decision. Brent ~$115.86, WTI ~$102.57.)
Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.
Israel Voted For Deadlock, Oil Bought The Strike was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.