Bitcoin On-Chain Update — June 2025
Where are we in the cycle, according to the data? I examined key on-chain and derivatives indicators that often precede tops, consolidations, or new legs higher. Here’s what the data is telling us now.
1. Funding Rates & Open Interest: Derivatives Cooled, Not Collapsed
Funding rates have remained positive but modest, suggesting longs still dominate — but without extreme leverage.Open interest is elevated yet not spiking in tandem with price — a sign that derivative-driven excess hasn’t taken over.Interpretation: The market is speculative but not overheated. The blow-off top mechanics (i.e. retail leverage explosion) aren’t present… yet.
2. MVRV: Profitability High, But Not Parabolic
Current MVRV suggests that Bitcoin is over its realized value, but not at levels historically associated with market tops (e.g., MVRV > 3.5).Most participants are in profit, but the incentive to mass exit isn’t extreme.Interpretation: Profit margins are high, yet not euphoric — the MVRV profile looks more mature bull than cycle peak.
3. NUPL: Market in “Belief” Phase, Not Euphoria
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shows that holders are sitting on significant unrealized gains, but not in the “greed/euphoria” zone (ratio > 0.75)There’s still belief, but not irrational exuberance.Interpretation: NUPL reinforces a late-stage but not terminal cycle phase. Tops historically form when NUPL reaches excessive optimism — we’re not there.
4. SOPR Ratio (LTH / STH): Smart Money Exiting in Moderation
The LTH/ STH SOPR ratio is c.2.1, indicating that long-term holders are realizing double the profits of short-term holders.This is typical of structured profit-taking, not panic exit.Interpretation: Smart money is trimming positions, not fleeing — a sign of confidence, not capitulation.
5. Exchange Inflow CDD: Old Coins Staying Put
Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed remains low. Aged coins (held for long periods) are not being sent to exchanges.Interpretation: Long-term holders are not preparing to sell, reducing risk of a surprise top.
6. Exchange Netflow: No Panic Deposits
Netflows remain neutral to slightly negative: more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering.Interpretation: Market participants are still favoring cold storage over selling. This supports a structurally bullish setup.
7. Exchange Reserves: Long-Term Decline Holds
Total BTC held on exchanges continues to drift lower, confirming a multi-year downtrend in exchange balances.Interpretation: Fewer coins available to sell= reduced spot supply pressure — a macro bull case that remains valid.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s price may be steep — but structurally, the data does not confirm a top.
There are signs of maturity:
Long-term holders are selectively realizing gainsProfitability metrics are elevatedDerivatives are leaning long
…but this is not the setup we saw in previous cycle tops:
No parabolic MVRVNo euphoric NUPLNo funding blowoutsNo net inflow panicNo whale-sized exchange movementsConclusion: We’re in the late bull phase, but with no strong signs of imminent reversal. Keep your eyes on derivatives escalation, NUPL spikes, and exchange inflow from aged wallets for that shift. Until then, the structure is holding.
Bitcoin On-Chain Update — June 2025 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.