Bitcoin — party is almost over.
Well, it looks like it’s all over. A beautiful and profitable journey lasting a year and a half is coming to an end.
About a month ago, I published the data from my long-term Bitcoin model. It shifted to a neutral stance for the second time in the current bull cycle.
How to profit in Bitcoin? A good entry isn’t enough — a timely exit is key.
For more details about the model itself, read this post.
Bitcoin: End of the Bull Market or Opportunity to Buy?
I also mentioned that if/when the model gives a clear bearish signal, I will definitely share that information here on the blog. And now, after a month, the time has come. The model has switched to bear mode.
Current model’s score — 0.35
This doesn’t mean that we will start falling today or in the next week. But it definitely indicates that we shouldn’t expect any prolonged or significant growth. In the previous market cycle, after the model showed similar score, Bitcoin was able to reach a new short-term peak(year 2021). After that, it corrected by 50%.
The signal from the long-term model is also confirmed by other indicators. In particular, I track the dynamics of Bitcoin wallets that show successful investment results (this is a separate large topic). Honestly, I haven’t seen anything like this anywhere else. The ideas behind this approach were partially revealed in my articles.
Best Bitcoin Investors Hunting. Part 2Deep into the Bitcoin Blockchain: Exploring Bitcoin’s Best Traders
And I observe that smart players have almost unloaded the Bitcoin position they accumulated during the last long-term market lows.
Naturally, I could be wrong. I’m not encouraging anyone to follow the signals of my model. But I am happy to share them as part of a real-time experiment.
Bitcoin — party is almost over. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.