Q2 closes out on Tuesday, June 30, and quarter-end rebalancing is adding extra noise to an already jumpy market.
💵 USD: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the tone is hawkish — May inflation hit 4.1%, and markets now price nearly three rate hikes this year. The Dollar Index hit a 13-month high above 101.80. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 despite the ECB’s first hike since 2023 — the rate gap is just too wide. Expect short-term USD funding to tighten into Tuesday as dealers do their usual quarter-end repo shuffle, then ease into July.
✨ Gold: trading near $4,000–4,070/oz, down for a 4th straight week on the strong dollar, though still up over 20% year-on-year. Central banks bought near-record amounts in Q1, and almost 90% plan to keep adding — dips still look buyable medium-term.
🛢️ Oil: WTI near $68–69, Brent near $72, the lowest since before the Iran conflict, as Gulf supply and Hormuz shipping recover. Crude is down over 20% in four weeks, but the truce is fragile — fresh talks just shifted to Doha, and one bad headline could flip it fast.
📉 Crypto: Bitcoin near $59,000–60,000, the weakest since 2024, hit by ETF outflows and rotation into AI stocks. Sentiment is deep in “extreme fear” — crypto is trading like a risk asset, not a hedge.
🌍 This week: watch the ISM PMI, the US jobs report, and any Doha headline — that’s what’s moving gold, oil and the dollar together right now.
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📊 NordFX Weekly Forex Forecast: Quarter-End Flows — USD Funding, Gold, Oil and Crypto Before July was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.