A 24-day forensic breakdown of the most significant geopolitical shock to global markets since Russia invaded Ukraine
The Weekend That Rewrote the Market Playbook
At 8:30 a.m. Central European Time on Saturday, February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran.
The operation, which President Donald Trump publicly described as ‘major combat operations,’ targeted Iran’s missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and naval assets. It also resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Every traditional financial market on the planet was closed.
How the Iran-Israel War Annihilated Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, and the S&P 500
What followed across the next 24 days was one of the most dramatic, fast-moving, and analytically rich periods in modern financial history.
Oil surged past $101 per barrel.
Gold, the oldest safe haven in existence, crashed nearly 19 percent from its February high.
Bitcoin held its ground with surprising composure.
The S&P 500 bled steadily lower.
The U.S. dollar climbed toward 100 on the DXY index.
And Ethereum, after an initial 10 percent shock, staged a quiet and largely overlooked recovery.
Key Fact: The IEA described the Strait of Hormuz disruption as ‘the greatest global energy and food security challenge in history,’ echoing the severity of the 1970s oil crisis.
This report examines all six key investment instruments through a single, unified lens:
What happened?
Why did it happen?
What does the data show?
What does it mean for investors in a world where geopolitical shock has become the dominant macro variable?
How the Iran-Israel War Began and Why Markets Were Caught Off-Guard
The military operation that began on February 28 escalated far faster than nearly any analyst had modeled. Within hours of the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting not only Israel but also U.S. military bases across the Gulf. Bahrain confirmed that an American base had been struck. Qatar and the UAE intercepted missiles over their territory. Explosions were reported in Dubai. Bahrain closed its airspace.
According to CoinDesk, the speed of Iran’s retaliation transformed what many had initially read as a contained strike into ‘the broadest Middle Eastern military conflict in decades.’ The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply flows, was immediately threatened with closure.
The structural problem for financial markets was simple and brutal: it was Saturday. Every major U.S. equity exchange, European bourse, and Asian market was closed. Oil futures markets, major forex platforms, and commodity exchanges were all offline. The first real-time price discovery happened not on the NYSE or CME, but on 24/7 crypto markets and decentralized perpetual exchanges.
How the Iran-Israel War Began and Why Markets Were Caught Off-Guard
As Euronews reported, oil-linked perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid surged more than 5 percent almost immediately after the strikes were announced, ‘providing one of the first real-time price signals before traditional markets reopened.’ Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, described that weekend in a memo as ‘the weekend that changed finance.’
Within a single hour of the news breaking on Saturday, Bitcoin sell volume surged by approximately $1.8 billion. Over $300 million in crypto liquidations occurred during that initial strike weekend alone. When traditional markets opened Monday morning, they had a full weekend of geopolitical developments to price in simultaneously.
“This event generates greater macroeconomic risk than recent military conflicts. Through its potential to disrupt global energy markets and supply chains, it looks likely to have material, lasting political and economic consequences.” J.P. Morgan Global Research, March 2026
Oil Ignites. WTI Surges 50% as the Strait of Hormuz Trembles
No asset in this 24-day period moved as dramatically as crude oil. West Texas Intermediate started the period at $67.30 per barrel on February 28. By March 14, it had climbed past $99.34. At its intraday peak, WTI briefly touched above $101 per barrel. That represents a surge of more than 50 percent in under two weeks.
The driver was existential: the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and a significant share of global liquefied natural gas travel through it every single day. When Iran threatened to disrupt or close that corridor, traders did not wait for confirmation. They bought.
The Wikipedia economic impact summary noted that Brent crude surged 10 to 13 percent to around $80 to $82 per barrel by March 2 alone, and analysts immediately forecast that prices could reach $100 per barrel if disruptions persisted, ‘potentially adding 0.8 percent to global inflation.’
The single most dramatic session was March 6. Oil jumped nearly $13 per barrel in a single trading day as the conflict escalated sharply. Iran attacked multiple commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and near the Strait of Hormuz on March 11, further tightening supply fears. The International Energy Agency responded by announcing a planned release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves across its 32-member nations.
“The dollar has been the ultimate safe haven during this conflict. That is detrimental to gold since over the last year, gold has been the ultimate safe haven.” Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist, TD Bank, via Bloomberg
Oil vs. Bitcoin: The Correlation That Defined the Period
According to Bitrue market analysis, rising oil prices raised inflation expectations, reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and tightened liquidity conditions across all risk assets including Bitcoin. ‘The March 2026 episode confirmed this transmission channel in real time,’ the analysis concluded. Bitcoin fell and rose almost exactly as oil moved in the opposite direction, making oil the dominant macro signal for the entire conflict period.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted in its Iran war update that the oil price surge was ‘driving market movements’ across every asset class, adding that ‘war can attract investors into fixed income as perceived safe havens to bridge over the hostilities, but not this time.’
Multi-Asset Price Data (Feb 28 to Mar 23, 2026)
Source: Market data as provided. Weekend/holiday values represent last available price. *Asterisked values denote carry-forward.
The Gold Paradox. The World’s Oldest Safe Haven Crashes 19 Percent During a War
If one data point from this 24-day period will be studied in finance courses for decades, it is this: gold fell nearly 19 percent during one of the most serious geopolitical crises in modern history.
Gold opened the period at $5,274.64 per troy ounce on February 28. It briefly surged to $5,423 in the first hours of the conflict as investors instinctively rotated toward safety. That is what the historical playbook predicted. What happened next was entirely different.
According to CNBC’s analysis of the gold market, gold fell more than 6 percent to $5,085 by March 3 and then continued declining week after week. By March 23, spot gold traded at $4,269.59, a decline of roughly 19 percent from the February high.
Three forces explain this collapse, and they all fed off each other.
First, the oil surge drove inflation expectations sharply higher. When markets price in sustained oil above $90 or $100 per barrel, they also price in a Federal Reserve that cannot cut rates. Higher real yields make gold, which pays no income, structurally less attractive.
Second, the U.S. dollar strengthened aggressively. As Wells Fargo noted, oil is denominated in dollars. A higher oil price increases global demand for dollars to pay for energy. As the DXY climbed from 98.40 toward 99.65, gold faced direct mechanical downward pressure since it is priced in those same dollars.
Third, and most critically, margin calls struck institutional investors across equity and bond portfolios. When leveraged positions lose money in a crisis, portfolio managers sell their most liquid assets to raise cash. Gold, being extraordinarily liquid, was the first thing to go.
As TradingView News reported, ‘during periods of extreme market uncertainty and panic, investors tend to prioritize raising cash urgently rather than holding commodities or securities. During the early phase of the conflict, the surge in demand for US dollars and overall liquidity temporarily surpassed the appeal of gold as a safe haven.’
“Gold is more of a hedge against the wider impact of conflicts, rather than direct wartime threats. Gold primarily insulates against monetary risks like currency devaluation, rising deficits, and economic slowdowns.” UBS Global Wealth Management, March 16, 2026 Market Note
Despite the brutal short-term performance, major bank forecasts remain structurally bullish. J.P. Morgan maintained a year-end 2026 price target of $6,300 per ounce, while Deutsche Bank held its forecast at $6,000. Both banks argued that once the conflict de-escalates or the Fed pivots toward rate cuts, gold stands to benefit significantly from the very macro damage the war has caused.
“Looking at past large-scale conflicts as a guide, the risk premium boost to gold prices during past MENA military conflicts, while sizeable at times, ultimately proved fleeting as more certainty around the situation emerged. In the near term, the potential for a swift lengthening to recent highs in investor gold futures positioning points to a possible 5 to 10 percent risk premium jump in gold prices.” Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy, J.P. Morgan
Bitcoin as Digital Gold. Resilient, Volatile, and Increasingly Relevant
Bitcoin entered the Iran war trading at $66,995 on February 28. It was already down roughly 47 percent from its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,000. The war did not create Bitcoin’s bear market. It tested it.
The first hour of the conflict told one story: Bitcoin sold off hard. The price dropped to around $63,100 before recovering. Over $300 million in crypto liquidations hit in the opening weekend, with $1.8 billion in sell volume in a single hour as traders used the only large liquid market available to express their fear.
But what happened after that initial shock was more significant. Bitcoin did not continue falling. It recovered.
By March 5, Bitcoin had rebounded to $73,156. By March 16, it hit its period peak of $74,864, its highest level during the conflict. Across the entire 24-day window, Bitcoin delivered a net gain of approximately 2.26 percent, easily outperforming gold (down 19 percent), the S&P 500 (down 3.77 percent), and Ethereum (roughly flat).
Bitcoin Daily Price Snapshot (Feb 28 to Mar 23, 2026)
Source: Historical market data provided. All prices in USD.
Two structural factors supported Bitcoin’s resilience. First, institutional adoption has matured. Bitcoin ETFs now provide a regulated channel for institutional money, and while February 2026 saw approximately $3.8 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, those outflows did not trigger a collapse. The underlying demand floor from long-term holders held.
Second, as India.com reported, ‘analysts suggest this huge gain is being fueled by investors now seeing Bitcoin as an asset that can hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation just like gold.’ Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, its fixed supply, and its borderless settlement made it attractive to investors in regions directly affected by the conflict.
Industry Voices on X (Twitter)
X (Twitter) | @APompliano Bitcoin is doing exactly what it was designed to do. It’s a decentralized, censorship-resistant, borderless asset. During wars, that matters. The gold comparison misses the point entirely. Source:
Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital. Active market commentator on X during the Iran conflict. Profile: @APompliano
X (Twitter) | @CaitlinLong_ The Iran war is the stress test crypto has been waiting for. 24/7 markets, no counterparty risk, no margin calls at the exchange level. BTC held. Everything else cracked. Source:
Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank. Profile: @CaitlinLong_
X (Twitter) | @RaoulGMI The macro thesis is actually playing out exactly as expected. Oil shock, dollar up, gold crushed by real yields, equities bleed. Bitcoin is the outlier. It’s the only ‘money’ with no sovereign risk. Source:
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision. Profile: @RaoulGMI
X (Twitter) | @dan_pantera ETH spot ETF inflows held steady through the entire conflict. BlackRock’s ETHB fund hit $254M in its first week. Institutions are not running from crypto. They’re running toward Ethereum. Source:
Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital. Profile: @dan_pantera
X (Twitter) | @SBF_FTX_Alumni The Hyperliquid oil contracts were trading before any regulated market. That’s not a fringe observation. That’s the future of price discovery showing up in real time. Source:
Market commentary widely circulated on X during the conflict’s first weekend, March 2026.
Bitcoin vs. Gold. Who Won the Safe Haven Battle?
Asset Performance Scorecard (Feb 28 to Mar 23, 2026)
Source: Market data provided. Net change calculated from Feb 28 open to Mar 23 close.
The data above settles a debate that has run through financial markets for years. During the 2026 Iran war, Bitcoin outperformed gold by approximately 21 percentage points on a net basis over the same 24-day window. That is not a rounding error. It is a structural statement.
However, intellectual honesty demands a caveat. Bitcoin’s outperformance was concentrated. During the first weekend when traditional markets were closed, Bitcoin served as a panic-selling vehicle rather than a safe haven. The real ‘safe haven’ argument rests on what came after: the recovery, the floor, and the relative stability between $65,000 and $75,000 for the bulk of the period.
Gold’s crash, by contrast, was systematic. It was not driven by crypto-specific factors or weekend liquidity effects. It reflected a fundamental repricing of what gold actually protects against in the modern macro environment. As UBS noted, gold insulates against monetary risk, not direct wartime threats. The Iran war delivered wartime threats at first, then inflation risk and dollar strength, which actively worked against gold.
The S&P 500. A Slow Bleed Dressed as Stability
The S&P 500 opened the conflict at 6,878.88 on February 28. By March 23, it closed at 6,619.00, a decline of 3.77 percent. That number understates the damage. At its lowest point in this window, the index hit 6,506.48 on March 20 and 21. As CNN Business reported, the Dow dropped four weeks in a row, its longest losing streak in three years. The S&P 500 also dropped four consecutive weeks, its worst streak in 12 months.
“The stock market remains in negative territory for the year, and has made new 2026 lows this week, which suggests that the market may not have yet found its bottom and is still in the process of sorting out and pricing in the duration of the Middle East conflict and oil price outlook.” David Laut, Chief Investment Officer, Kerux Financial, via CNN Business
The mechanism of equity pain was straightforward: energy costs. When oil climbs from $67 to over $100 per barrel in two weeks, that cost bleeds into every sector of the real economy. Airlines saw immediate single-digit declines. Shipping costs surged. Manufacturing input costs rose. Consumer spending capacity contracted.
According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, if Brent prices remained elevated through mid-year, global GDP growth for the first half of 2026 could be depressed at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent. Higher energy prices would also feed into inflation, with the global Consumer Price Index potentially rising by more than 1 percent on an annualized basis over the same period.
Analysts from Franklin Templeton favored energy, shipping, insurance, and defense in the near term, while flagging caution on fuel-sensitive cyclicals. That rotation played out visibly in the data: while the broad index fell, energy names outperformed.
One notable divergence was the S&P 500’s outperformance relative to international benchmarks. As Wells Fargo observed, the United States is a net energy exporter, which means higher oil prices benefit U.S. production economics while hurting European and Asian economies that depend on imports. The euro, the yen, and emerging market currencies all faced greater structural headwinds than the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar. War’s Quiet Winner
The DXY U.S. Dollar Index opened the period at 98.40 and ended at 99.65. That 1.27 percent gain looks modest in isolation. In context, it was the most consistent performer across all six instruments, posting gains in almost every single session across the 24 days.
The dollar’s strength during the Iran war reflects three reinforcing dynamics. First, oil is priced in dollars globally. Any nation that needs to buy oil, which is nearly every nation on earth, needs dollars to do so. A supply shock that drives oil prices higher mechanically increases global dollar demand.
Second, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s response to the oil-driven inflation surge was to hold rates steady and raise its inflation forecast. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its March 18 to 19 meeting while explicitly citing oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict as a driver of its revised inflation outlook. Higher-for-longer rates in the world’s reserve currency make the dollar more attractive relative to every other currency.
Third, the U.S. remains the dominant provider of global financial liquidity. In any crisis, institutional investors worldwide seek dollars as the ultimate settlement currency. That reflexive demand served as a constant bid for the DXY throughout the period.
The dollar’s strength had direct negative consequences for gold, as described in Section 3. It also created headwinds for emerging market economies, whose dollar-denominated debt service costs rose in real terms as their local currencies depreciated against the greenback.
Ethereum. The Quiet Outperformer That Most Investors Missed
Ethereum’s story during the Iran war is arguably the most nuanced of all six assets. It is also the most overlooked.
Ethereum entered the conflict near $2,030 on February 26. When the strikes hit on February 27 to 28, ETH plunged approximately 10 percent in a single hour, hitting an intraday low of around $1,859. Over $155 million in ETH positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with nearly 88 percent of those liquidations coming from long positions. As Coinpedia reported, one well-known trader running a 25x leveraged long position was forced out near the $1,863 level.
That was the worst of it. What followed was a recovery pattern that outpaced Bitcoin in relative terms.
According to CryptoSlate data cited by CryptoNews.net, Ethereum rose 18 percent against the dollar since the start of March, compared with a 13 percent gain for Bitcoin over the same period. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 7.6 percent to 0.0315 from 0.0293, confirming that Ethereum was outperforming Bitcoin on a relative basis, not simply riding its coattails.
Three factors drove Ethereum’s recovery and relative strength.
First, institutional buying. BlackRock launched its iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB), which raised $104.7 million in seed capital and attracted more than $45.7 million in additional inflows in its first two trading days alone. The nine spot ETH exchange-traded funds collectively recorded more than $160 million in net inflows in a single week during the conflict period, their strongest weekly intake since mid-January.
Second, corporate treasury adoption. BitMine Immersion purchased 60,999 ETH in a single disclosure during the period, bringing its total holdings to approximately 4.59 million ETH. The company publicly stated plans to acquire up to 5 percent of total Ethereum supply, creating a persistent demand signal that traders could not ignore.
Third, the Ethereum network’s structural yield story. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum offers native staking yield. BlackRock’s ETHB product reframed ETH as a cash-flow-generating asset for institutional allocators, a positioning that matters enormously for pension funds and endowments that need income alongside price exposure.
“Ethereum is increasingly behaving like a financial asset. This dynamic may also help explain why crypto has recently shown relative strength versus other asset classes and does not neatly fit into the traditional risk-on/risk-off framework.” Institutional commentary circulated in March 2026, widely attributed to ETH ETF market research
The Iran war did not cause Ethereum’s problems, as FXStreet noted. But it amplified the asset’s pre-existing fragility from its February decline of roughly 36 percent. What the recovery showed is that Ethereum’s institutional floor, built through ETF inflows, corporate treasury buying, and staking yield, is far more developed than most retail-focused market commentary acknowledged.
The Macro Architecture. How the Pieces Fit Together
Studying each asset in isolation misses the most important story: how they interact. The Iran war produced a specific macro architecture that is worth mapping clearly for any investor who wants to understand why assets moved the way they did.
The chain of causation ran as follows. The Strait of Hormuz disruption triggered an oil supply shock. Oil’s surge drove global inflation expectations higher. Higher inflation expectations caused bond yields to rise. Rising yields reduced the appeal of non-income-producing assets like gold. Rising yields also signaled a Federal Reserve that could not cut rates as planned, which reduced liquidity in the financial system. Reduced liquidity pressured risk assets, including equities and crypto. Simultaneously, global demand for dollar liquidity drove the DXY higher, which added further downward pressure on gold and emerging market currencies.
Key Insight: The critical feedback loop in this period was Oil -> Inflation -> Fed Policy -> Dollar -> Everything Else. Every asset’s performance during the Iran war can be traced back to where it sits in relation to that chain.
According to the Wikipedia economic impact summary of the 2026 Iran war, the conflict has been described as ‘the most severe global supply disruption since at least the 1970s,’ echoing the 1973 oil crisis through ‘acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation, and heightened risks of stagflation and recession.’
The S&P 500’s 3.77 percent decline understates the damage to corporate earnings expectations. Airline stocks fell 6 percent in a day. Global shipping costs climbed. Manufacturing input costs rose. The Nasdaq briefly dipped into correction territory before partially recovering. The Dow’s four consecutive weekly losses marked its longest losing streak since 2023.
Two outcomes diverged from the historical playbook in ways that will define academic analysis for years. Gold fell during a war. Crypto markets provided real-time price discovery when traditional markets were closed. Both represent structural shifts in how global capital operates in 2026 versus how it operated even five years ago.
What Comes Next. Three Scenarios for Markets
Scenario 1: De-escalation and ceasefire (Probability: Moderate)
A Trump aide told the media the conflict could last four to six weeks. As Bloomberg reported, ‘uncertainty over how long the war will last has made it difficult for traders to assess the impact on markets.’ If a ceasefire emerges, the sequence would likely be: oil falls back toward $70 to $80, inflation expectations ease, the Fed resumes its rate cut path, the dollar weakens, gold recovers sharply, Bitcoin breaks higher, and equities stage a relief rally.
Scenario 2: Prolonged conflict, oil above $90 (Probability: Moderate-High)
If the Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted for weeks, oil stays elevated. This keeps inflation expectations high and delays Fed cuts. The dollar stays strong. Gold continues to face structural headwinds from real yields. Bitcoin trades range-bound. Equities grind lower. The J.P. Morgan scenario of 0.6 percent annualized GDP drag begins to bite into corporate earnings.
Scenario 3: Full Strait closure or major energy infrastructure attack (Probability: Lower, but non-trivial)
Wells Fargo’s Iran war update named ‘a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as the highest stage of Iranian escalation.’ The IEA has 400 million barrels in strategic reserve releases planned, but as Tapbit’s analysis noted, ‘once depleted, oil could easily re-test the $115 or $120 mark.’ At those prices, stagflation risk becomes material. Gold could paradoxically recover as a hedge against currency debasement. Bitcoin faces a split: the risk-off selloff vs. the monetary hedge narrative.
Percentage Change Summary by Asset (Feb 28 to Mar 23, 2026)
Note: Oil’s figure reflects Feb 28 to Mar 23 close. Gold’s high and subsequent crash represent a 19% decline from the Feb 2026 high.
Key Event Timeline vs. Asset Reactions
Source: Compiled from CNBC, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, TradingView, Yahoo Finance, Wikipedia economic impact summary, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Conclusion: A New Map for Wartime Markets
The 24-day window from February 28 to March 23, 2026, produced a financial record that is worth reading carefully. Oil behaved exactly as the energy shock playbook predicted. The dollar behaved exactly as reserve currency theory would expect. The S&P 500 behaved as corporate earnings models would forecast under a sustained energy cost shock.
Gold and Bitcoin broke from tradition. Gold fell because the specific mechanism of this war, an oil shock that drives inflation expectations and real yields higher rather than a pure liquidity panic, is structurally negative for a non-yielding commodity priced in a strengthening currency. The lesson is not that gold is broken. It is that gold’s safe haven function is conditional and macro-dependent.
Bitcoin held because its value proposition does not rest on yield, monetary policy expectations, or dollar denomination. Its fixed supply, decentralized infrastructure, and 24/7 settlement capability made it the only asset that could be both sold in panic and bought as a hedge simultaneously. That is unusual. It is also increasingly intentional.
Ethereum’s story is perhaps the most forward-looking. It recovered faster than most expected, outperformed Bitcoin in relative terms during the recovery phase, and attracted sustained institutional buying throughout the conflict. The BlackRock ETHB staking ETF reframed the asset as a yield-bearing financial instrument, not merely a speculative token. That reframing has lasting implications.
The Iran war is not over. Markets are still pricing in scenarios. But the data from these 24 days gives investors a cleaner lens for understanding which assets protect wealth during geopolitical shocks, which ones amplify losses, and which ones are quietly building institutional infrastructure that will matter when the next crisis arrives.
The playbook has changed. The smart money is reading the new one.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How did Bitcoin perform during the Iran-Israel war in 2026?
Bitcoin opened at $66,995 on February 28, dropped briefly to around $63,100 in the initial panic, then recovered to peak at $74,864 on March 16. By March 23, it closed at $68,511, delivering a net gain of approximately 2.26 percent over the 24-day period. It outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and Ethereum on a net basis.
2. Why did gold fall during the Iran war when it is supposed to be a safe haven?
Gold fell because the Iran war triggered an oil supply shock that drove inflation expectations and bond yields higher. Rising real yields make gold, which pays no income, structurally less attractive. Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly as global demand for dollar liquidity surged, creating additional mechanical downward pressure on gold, which is priced in dollars. Margin calls across institutional portfolios also forced large-scale gold liquidation.
3. How high did oil prices go during the Iran-Israel conflict?
WTI crude oil rose from $67.30 per barrel on February 28 to a peak of over $101 per barrel by mid-March, representing a surge of more than 50 percent. The single most dramatic session was March 6, when oil jumped nearly $13 per barrel in a single day as the conflict escalated and Iran attacked commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
4. What happened to the S&P 500 during the Iran War?
The S&P 500 fell from 6,878.88 on February 28 to a low of 6,506.48 on March 20 and 21, representing a decline of approximately 5.4 percent from its early-March levels. The index posted four consecutive weekly losses, its longest losing streak in a year. Rising energy costs, higher inflation expectations, and delayed Fed rate cut prospects all weighed on equity valuations.
5. Did Ethereum hold up during the Iran conflict?
Ethereum initially plunged approximately 10 percent in the first hours of the conflict, with $155 million in ETH positions liquidated in 24 hours. However, it recovered steadily. By mid-March, ETH had risen 18 percent against the dollar since the start of March, outpacing Bitcoin’s 13 percent gain over the same period. Sustained institutional inflows into Ethereum ETFs and corporate treasury buying by firms like BitMine supported the recovery.
6. Why did the U.S. dollar strengthen during the Iran war?
Three factors drove dollar strength. First, oil is denominated in dollars, so higher oil prices increased global dollar demand for energy payments. Second, the Federal Reserve held rates steady and raised its inflation forecast, signaling higher-for-longer rates in the world’s reserve currency. Third, in any global crisis, institutional investors and sovereign entities seek dollar liquidity as the ultimate settlement currency, creating consistent demand for DXY.
7. Is Bitcoin a safe haven asset like gold?
Bitcoin demonstrated characteristics of a safe haven during the 2026 Iran war in the sense that it ultimately held value better than gold, stocks, and most other risk assets. However, the initial reaction was a sharp selloff, which is more consistent with a risk asset than a traditional safe haven. The honest answer is that Bitcoin is increasingly functioning as a hybrid: a risk asset that benefits from safe-haven demand under specific macro conditions, particularly those involving sovereign or monetary risk rather than pure liquidity panics.
8. How did crypto markets function during the weekend when traditional markets were closed?
Crypto markets operated continuously 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, as they always do. When the Iran strikes began on Saturday February 28, crypto markets became the only major liquid venue for global price discovery. Decentralized perpetual exchanges like Hyperliquid saw oil-linked contracts surge more than 5 percent almost immediately. Bitcoin sell volume surged by approximately $1.8 billion in a single hour. This real-time price discovery function, described by Bitwise’s Matt Hougan as ‘the weekend that changed finance,’ highlighted a structural advantage of crypto infrastructure.
9. What did J.P. Morgan and other major banks say about the market impact of the Iran war?
J.P. Morgan Global Research stated that the conflict ‘generates greater macroeconomic risk than recent military conflicts’ and projected that sustained elevated oil prices could depress global GDP growth by 0.6 percent on an annualized basis in the first half of 2026. J.P. Morgan also maintained a year-end 2026 gold price target of $6,300 per ounce, arguing that gold would recover once the monetary risk channel reasserted itself. Deutsche Bank held a $6,000 year-end target for gold.
10. What are the best assets to hold during a geopolitical war based on the 2026 Iran conflict data?
Based on the 24-day performance record, oil and energy-related equities performed best in absolute terms. The U.S. dollar delivered the most consistent gains with the lowest volatility. Bitcoin held its value better than gold despite early volatility. Ethereum recovered strongly on institutional demand. Gold and equities broadly underperformed. The most important lesson is that asset performance during wars depends heavily on the specific mechanism of the shock: an energy supply disruption creates a very different macro environment than a financial liquidity crisis or a conventional military conflict.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Nothing in this article should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Past market performance during geopolitical events is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions carry risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market data cited in this article reflects historical figures as provided and may not reflect real-time or final settlement prices.
Sources and References
1. CoinDesk: ‘Bitcoin could see further downside risks as Iran attacks U.S. bases across Middle East’ (Feb 28, 2026)
2. Euronews: ‘Crypto’s 24/7 platforms dominated Iran war trading when markets closed’ (Mar 5, 2026)
3. TradingView / CoinTelegraph: ‘How Bitcoin and gold reacted differently to the Iran war shock’
4. Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance: ‘Gold wavers as high energy prices threaten Fed rate path’ (Mar 16, 2026)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-wavers-near-5-000-005652913.html
5. CNBC: ‘U.S.-Israel strikes Iran: What we know as markets brace for turmoil’ (Mar 1, 2026)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/iran-khamenei-trump-us-investors-markets.html
6. CNBC: ‘Global markets after Iran strikes: Oil surges, airlines sink, bonds defy safe-haven playbook’ (Mar 2, 2026)
7. CNBC: ‘Why gold hasn’t moved since the Iran conflict and where it could go next’ (Mar 12, 2026)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/gold-iran-conflict-where-next-markets.html
8. CNN Business: ‘Stocks, bonds and gold slump while Iran war rages’ (Mar 20, 2026)
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/investing/us-stocks-iran
9. J.P. Morgan Global Research: ‘US-Israel Military Operation Against Iran: Are Markets on Edge?’ (Mar 2026)
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/iran-us-tensions-market-effect
10. Wells Fargo Investment Institute: ‘Iran War Update’ (Mar 2026)
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/research-analysis/reports/policy/iran-war-update.htm
11. Wikipedia: ‘Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war’ (Ongoing)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_2026_Iran_war
12. Bitrue: ‘Oil and Bitcoin’s Correlation: US Iran War Impact Explained’
https://www.bitrue.com/blog/oil-bitcoin-correlation-us-iran-war-sentiments
13. FXStreet: ‘Ethereum Weekly Price Forecast: Early bullish momentum fades as Iran war weighs on markets’ (Mar 20, 2026)
14. CryptoNews.net: ‘Ethereum gains ground over Bitcoin amid rising US-Iran war’
https://cryptonews.net/news/ethereum/32575144/
15. BusinessToday India: ‘West Asia conflict jitters not enough: Iran war pushes oil up, but caps gold, silver gains’ (Mar 21, 2026)
16. Bloomberg: ‘Crypto Prices Fall as Israel-Iran Conflict Spurs Risk-Off Sentiment’ (Mar 18, 2026)
17. Tapbit Blog: ‘Oil Prices Amid the 2026 Iran-Israel Conflict: What’s Next for Crypto Markets?’
https://blog.tapbit.com/oil-prices-amid-the-2026-iran-israel-conflict-whats-next-for-crypto-markets/
18. CoinMarketCap AI: ‘Latest Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis’
https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/ethereum/price-analysis/
19. Brave New Coin: ‘S&P 500 Erases $3.2 Trillion as Iran War Escalates’
How the Iran-Israel War Affected Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, and the S&P 500 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.