XRP has pulled back under $1.50 after briefly surpassing $1.60 yesterday, with a popular analyst saying the token now sits at a critical decision point and that a single piece of legislation could determine whether it breaks higher.
According to EGRAG CRYPTO, the CLARITY Act is the primary catalyst standing between XRP’s current price and a potential run past the $1.65 to $1.70 resistance band they dubbed “Zone 1.”
An Ascending Triangle With One Condition Attached
In their analysis, posted on X on March 18, EGRAG pointed out that XRP was forming an ascending triangle just below the $1.65-$1.70 range.
This is a pattern that usually leads to upward breakouts, and, according to the analyst, it shows rising lows, which would suggest that buyers were stepping in. The chart also showed that resistance has so far been flat, meaning that liquidity is concentrated above the current level.
EGRAG estimated that there is a 65% chance the XRP price will break above Zone 1, mainly due to structure and building compressions. However, the other 35% points to a rejection or fakeout, which they believe could happen if the CLARITY Act is postponed.
The Ripple token has gone up about 6.5% in the last seven days, with a range stretching from $1.37 to $1.60. That breakout happened around the same time as a buildup in derivatives positioning, as revealed by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha. According to him, XRP’s open interest delta rose by $16 million on March 13 and another $18 million on March 16, with the second wave coming just before the cryptocurrency’s jump above $1.50.
Whale activity followed suit, with chartist Ali Martinez reporting that large addresses had added 200 million XRP in the last two weeks, bringing their total from 10.88 billion to 11.08 billion.
But despite all this, XRP was rejected at $1.60, and was trading near $1.45 at the time of writing, a price that another market watcher, Tara, stated they were closely monitoring, referring to it as the macro 0.618 Fibonacci support level.
What Zone 1 Doesn’t Unlock
EGRAG’s analysis made it clear what the $1.65 to $1.70 zone can trigger, as well as what it cannot deliver on its own. According to them, while breaking above that range would be a meaningful technical event, getting to the next level at $2.60 and beyond requires additional conditions.
These include institutional flows or ETF-style exposures, stable BTC prices, or a drop in the number one cryptocurrency’s dominance, as well as weekly XRP closes above the $1.85-$2.00 band.
The CLARITY Act itself is moving, with negotiations possibly concluding as early as next week, according to investor Paul Barron. U.S. President Donald Trump had publicly blamed banks for holding the bill back in order to protect their deposit base.
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