Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a critical resistance level near $100,000 this week, a point that some analysts say will decide the asset’s next major trend.
According to them, the outcome will determine whether the recent recovery is the start of a new bullish phase or merely a pause in a longer-term decline.
The $100,000 Battle Line
After five consecutive days of gains, the longest winning streak since early October 2025, Bitcoin momentarily pushed past $94,000 on January 6, according to CoinGecko data.
The asset is now up roughly 7.6% over the past week, but the broader picture remains uncertain. A key metric tracked by on-chain analysts, the average acquisition price for coins that last moved between six and twelve months ago is currently sitting near the $100,000 mark.
As noted by analyst Crypto Dan, Bitcoin’s price is trading below this level. Past experience shows that when the price remains under this cost basis, the overall trend tends to stay negative, with a higher chance of further losses.
“Historically, when price sits under this level, the broader trend leans bearish, and the risk of further downside remains elevated,” wrote the expert.
However, a clear break above $100,000 would signal a major shift, given that reclaiming that level has previously marked changes from bearish to bullish trends. According to Crypto Dan, the current setup makes this price point the single most important level for traders to keep an eye on.
“Right now, that cost basis sits near $100K,” they stated. “After weeks of sideways movement, Bitcoin is showing early signs of a rebound, making this level the key threshold to watch.”
Failure to exceed it would suggest the downtrend that began after October’s all-time high above $126,000 is still active. This technical analysis matches up with observations from other experts, including Doctor Profit, who previously noted that Bitcoin had broken a short-term resistance level, opening a path toward the $97,000-$107,000 range.
Conflicting Signals in a Transition Phase
Other market data paints a mixed picture, suggesting Bitcoin may be in a transitional phase. On one hand, the ratio of Bitcoin to stablecoins on Binance shows a buildup of buying power.
As analyst Darkfost pointed out, stablecoin reserves on the platform grew by about $1 billion recently. This increase indicates a significant amount of capital sitting on the sidelines, ready to buy BTC and support prices.
On the other hand, BorisD observed that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio, which measures returns relative to volatility, is dropping even as the price rises. This suggests the recent move higher is driven more by internal market mechanics and short-covering than by strong, new demand from external investors, and it is behavior often seen when a market is searching for a clear direction.
That being said, all eyes are focused on whether Bitcoin can overcome the $100,000 barrier and alter its narrative as the market looks to consolidate.
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