Bitcoin’s (BTC) price remains stuck around the $90,000 level, which has prompted renewed debate over where the market is headed as the year-end approaches.
According to analyst Axel Adler Junior, the cryptocurrency is in a rare holding pattern: technically in a correction, but still far from the deep drawdowns that have historically defined full bear markets.
$90K Range Standstill
In his latest analysis, Adler said that Bitcoin’s current maximum correction stands at roughly -32% from its all-time high. This is milder than the -60% to -80% declines seen at the end of major cycles since 2011. In previous cycles, a steady break below -40% served as the gateway to a far deeper decline, but Bitcoin has not crossed that threshold in the current 2025 cycle.
This positions the market in an unusual middle zone, where the correction is unmistakable, but its severity does not match past bearish extremes. Unrealised loss metrics further validate this picture. Adler explained that only 12% of the supply is currently in loss, while an overwhelming 88% of coins remain in profit.
Even the recent local peak, around 17% of supply in the red, sits dramatically below historical capitulation levels, where roughly 60% of supply fell underwater in previous cycle bottoms. Such limited unrealised losses indicate strong resilience among holders and suggest that this downturn more closely resembles a mid-trend correction within a broader bullish supercycle than the terminal phase of a bear market.
However, the same strength also introduces risk, as so many holders are still in profit. Therefore, any negative trigger could accelerate profit-taking and push drawdowns deeper. Adler argued that Bitcoin is effectively balancing between two possible paths. If the correction holds above the -35% zone and unrealised losses remain moderate, it would boost the case for a structurally “flatter” market shaped by institutional demand and ongoing supply constraints.
But a slide beyond -40% would sharply raise the probability of a classic bear cycle, opening the door to -60% to -70% declines and a more severe capitulation phase. For now, Bitcoin’s frozen price action indicates this delicate equilibrium. The next major move will hinge on whether drawdowns continue to deepen and unrealised losses begin climbing toward historically important thresholds. Those signals will decide whether Bitcoin remains in a mild correction or transitions into a classic bear market.
Bearish Flag Alarm
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also warned that Bitcoin could be setting up for a deeper correction after observing a potential bearish flag formation. The 12-hour chart shows BTC consolidating within a narrowing ascending channel after a sharp downward move. This is a classic continuation pattern that often leads to another leg lower.
Martinez noted that if this pattern breaks down, the technical target sits near $70,000, which points to an over 22% drop from current levels.
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