I Took 100 Trades Using One Pattern — Here Are the Stats
Trading is a numbers game, but it’s also a test of discipline, patience, and the ability to stick to a plan. Everyone has their favorite patterns, indicators, or “secret setups,” but the real question is: do they work consistently in real trading conditions? I wanted to find out for myself.
Over the past few weeks, I took 100 trades using just one simple trading pattern. No fancy strategies, no multiple indicators, just one repeatable setup. I tracked every trade, recorded every win and loss, and analyzed everything to see whether a single pattern could produce consistent results. Here’s my full experience, stats, and lessons learned.
Choosing the Pattern
I decided to use the EMA crossover with RSI confirmation, a pattern that’s widely discussed in crypto trading communities. It’s simple enough for beginners to understand but can still be powerful in trending markets.
Here’s the setup:
Entry Rule (Long): EMA 9 crosses above EMA 21 and RSI is below 70.Entry Rule (Short): EMA 9 crosses below EMA 21 and RSI is above 30.Exit Rule: Close the trade when EMA 9 crosses back, or when RSI signals the opposite.Stop Loss: 0.5% per trade.Take Profit: 1% per trade.
The simplicity was intentional. I wanted to test the pattern on its own, without overcomplicating things with dozens of indicators or complex signals.
Preparing for the Experiment
I traded BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT, mainly on 15-minute charts, which offered a balance between seeing enough trades per day and not being overwhelmed by noise like on 1-minute charts.
I documented every single trade:
Entry price and exit priceTrade outcome (win, loss, break-even)Market conditions (trending, sideways, volatile)Notes about emotions or mistakes
The goal was to see whether one pattern could survive in different market conditions and whether a trader could remain disciplined over a large sample size.
Trades 1–20: The Early Days
The first 20 trades were a mixture of excitement and frustration.
Wins: 11Losses: 9
At first, it felt promising. The EMA crossover with RSI confirmation caught some solid trends in BTC, and I started seeing small profits accumulate. But it wasn’t perfect. Sideways or choppy markets led to false signals, and a few trades hit stop losses within minutes.
Key Takeaways From Early Trades
Context is critical. Even a reliable pattern fails in a flat market.Patience matters. Waiting for confirmation — even one extra candle — could save you from a fake signal.Emotions are dangerous. I had a few moments of hesitation that caused me to enter too late, missing profits.
Trades 21–50: Reality Sets In
By the 30th trade, reality began to hit. Not every setup was profitable. Some trades looked perfect on the chart but immediately reversed.
Wins: 17Losses: 13
At this stage, I noticed a trend: the pattern worked best in trending markets. When BTC or ETH was moving in a clear direction, the EMA crossover consistently indicated entry points. But in low volatility periods, it produced almost as many losses as wins.
I also learned that documenting trades is invaluable. Seeing your own mistakes on paper — or in a spreadsheet — prevents repeating them. For example, I realized I often ignored the larger trend, which sometimes caused a winning setup to fail.
Trades 51–80: Adjusting to Market Conditions
Halfway through, I decided to tweak my approach slightly without abandoning the core pattern. I started:
Filtering trades to only align with the overall market trendAvoiding trades when RSI was extremely overbought or oversold, even if EMA conditions were metSkipping trades during low-volume hours
These adjustments improved results. The win rate increased, and losses became smaller. It reinforced an important lesson: a pattern alone is rarely enough. Context and discipline matter just as much.
Trades 81–100: Finishing Strong
The final 20 trades felt smoother. By this point, I had a rhythm:
Identify the setupCheck market trend and volumeExecute with clear stop loss and take profitRecord every detail
This approach reduced impulsive decisions and allowed the pattern to perform closer to its theoretical potential.
By the 100th trade:
Total Wins: 57Total Losses: 43
Overall, the pattern was profitable — but just barely. Most wins were small, and a few larger losses offset some gains. Still, the experiment proved that even a simple, repeatable pattern can work if applied with discipline and market awareness.
What Worked
Simplicity — Using one clear pattern kept decision-making straightforward.Consistency — The pattern could be applied repeatedly without confusion.Trend Alignment — Trades taken in the direction of the larger trend had much higher success.Record-Keeping — Documenting every trade helped identify mistakes and improve execution.
What Didn’t Work
Sideways Markets — EMA crossovers produced many false signals when the market was choppy.Ignoring Context — Early in the experiment, I took trades without considering the bigger picture, which led to losses.Overconfidence — Seeing early wins made me slightly careless, resulting in avoidable losses.Emotional Fatigue — 100 trades is mentally taxing, and decision fatigue can lead to mistakes.
Lessons Learned
Patterns Are Tools, Not Guarantees — No setup works 100% of the time. Patterns provide probabilities, not certainties.Market Conditions Matter — Trend, volatility, and volume all influence outcomes.Discipline is Key — Sticking to your rules — even when tempted to deviate — is what separates consistent traders from inconsistent ones.Track Everything — Recording trades helps refine strategies and reduces repeated mistakes.Adapt, Don’t Abandon — Small tweaks to filter trades based on trend or volume significantly improved results.
Reflections on the Experiment
Taking 100 trades using a single pattern taught me more than months of casual trading. It forced me to confront my weaknesses: impatience, overconfidence, and the temptation to override my rules.
It also reinforced a truth every trader eventually learns: there is no perfect setup. Success comes from disciplined execution, context awareness, and careful risk management — not from any single pattern.
Practical Takeaways for Traders
Start with one pattern and test it thoroughly before adding complexity.Only trade when the market conditions favor your setup.Document every trade; analysis is more important than intuition.Accept losses — they are part of trading, even with the “perfect” setup.Focus on quality trades over quantity; not every signal is worth taking.
Final Thoughts
Would I trade only this pattern forever? No. But taking 100 trades with it was an invaluable experiment. It showed that simple, repeatable patterns can work, but only when combined with patience, discipline, and awareness of the bigger market picture.
Trading is not about finding magic formulas — it’s about applying consistent rules in the right context, managing risk, and learning from every trade.
For anyone wondering if a single pattern can be profitable: yes, it can, but the key isn’t the pattern — it’s how you use it.
I Took 100 Trades Using One Pattern — Here Are the Stats was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.