It’s Not the Market That’s Random — It’s Us
I’ve heard this countless times — “The market is so random.” Honestly, I used to believe that too. Every time a candle spiked up out of nowhere or broke a level and instantly reversed, I’d shake my head and say, “There’s no logic here.”
But over time, I realised something that completely changed the way I think about trading.
It’s not the market that’s random. It’s me.
My Turning Point
Back when I started trading, I had no real system. I’d jump into trades based on what I “felt” was about to happen. No real confirmation, no higher time frame analysis, no stop loss discipline. And of course, when trades didn’t work out, I’d blame the market for being unpredictable.
But as I began to journal my trades and look back at my decisions with an honest eye, a pattern became obvious — the real randomness wasn’t in the market. It was in my thinking, my emotions, my lack of structure.
The Market Has a Rhythm
Sure, markets can be volatile. News hits, volume changes, sentiments shift. But if you zoom out, you’ll see how beautifully the market repeats itself. Support and resistance, breakouts, retests, volume patterns — they all come together like a puzzle if you’re paying attention.
What feels like chaos at the 5-minute level often makes perfect sense when you look at the 1-hour or daily chart. I just wasn’t looking in the right place. I was reacting instead of preparing.
Emotional Trading Feels Like a Coin Toss
Let me be real: trading based on boredom, revenge, fear, or FOMO is basically gambling. And when you gamble, the outcome feels random.
Now I know why some trades used to feel like I was in a casino — I was trading without a plan. No risk control, no analysis, just hope.
Hope is not a strategy. It took me a while to learn that.
How I Fixed My Own Randomness
It didn’t happen overnight. But I started small:
I chose one or two setups that made sense to me.I began every session with a top-down analysis.I started journaling my trades, noting my emotions, decisions, and results.
Slowly, I stopped feeling like I was guessing.
Instead of reacting to the market, I started understanding it. Not perfectly — but with enough structure to feel grounded.
A Quote That Stuck With Me
“Markets are never wrong — opinions often are.” — Jesse Livermore
This hit me hard. I realized the market wasn’t out to get me. It was doing what it always does — moving based on price, volume, and sentiment. My opinion, my fear, my overconfidence — those were the real issues.
Final Thoughts
If you feel like the market is random, step back and ask: is it really the market, or is it your approach?
When I began trading with a clear mind, a consistent plan, and controlled risk, the market didn’t seem so wild anymore. It started to feel… understandable. Even logical.
The randomness faded — not because the market changed, but because I did.
Rahul Meena
Blogger | Trader | Investor
It’s Not the Market That’s Random — It’s Us was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.