Are you a crypto bull? Are you slightly bearish? where do you think this is likely to go in the next 12 months?
So let me give you a little background, I have been a trader 25 years — I have traded various assets and instruments and found myself an early adopter in 2011. I was on a private flight from Vienna to London, just before boarding a magazine cover caught my eye.
Inside this magazine was an explanation of a blockchain transaction protocol, I started some due diligence over the next couple of days and once I figured out how to setup my first wallet, I tested a transaction. Those days, you needed a degree in astro physics for this step.
Jump forward a few years and I was at an event for Family Office investment in Monaco when a Bitcoin discussion broke out, the general conversation was about “taking a punt” on this new Blockchain tech idea. Why some were completely against it and some were interested, but limited. What was interesting here, was it was still pretty much an unknown this was 2015. Now as I would see over the next two years, what the general consensus of the sentiment seemed to be was it is now something to look at, but not sure how. Venture Capital firms were trying to find partners or syndicates and Angels to limit their exposure, but still have some exposure. At this stage, the larger LP’s (Limited Partners) who are often Family Offices, Hedge Funds, Private Equity firms and Banks. where not anywhere near this space.
Then during the run up in 2017, what I noticed was that VC’s were looking at blockchain investments with the opinion that if if Bitcoin was up on the day or the week, those start-up founders were in luck. If Bitcoin was down, there was no investment for blockchain companies.
Then of course Christmas 2017 — What a time that was.
I remember this well as I had arranged to meet my parents in Montreux over in Switzerland. I remember making investments in coins “Linda Coin” for one, this is my Grandmother’s name and it was a gamble more than an investment. Almost like a day at the races.
Another was XVG — Verge, this was a very, very good performer for my portfolio.
And another that is maybe a little more well-known today was XRP. (Ripple).
Now here’s where it get’s interesting.
After Christmas; the market as a whole seem to take a heavy drop, a lot of this was people like myself cashing out. But this wasn’t all, from here in the investment world, there was a shift. This was almost as if Crypto had proven itself, it dumped and did not die.
So, what did this mean or do for crypto?
Let me give you some context before or it won’t make sense for what I will share on the reasons why.
Well, the larger institutional players took some notice. Hence this became accumulation.
I posted about this not long after on TradingView.
Then the price started to climb properly into a re-accumulation phase, again I wrote an article about this.
What was interesting here, was that it truly felt like the institutional involvement was clearly visible on the chart. It was like watching poetry in motion.
As we moved into 2021 and climbed near that first $65,000 high, there was a little clue at roughly 58,000. I covered these moves as well.
Bitcoin – They blew up the rocket?
Again all fascinating to watch in real-time and very profitable.
Now — what does all of this mean?
It means instead of Bitcoin being seen as a technology play, it was now an institutional tradable asset class.
What does this mean? Well, from a trader’s perspective some of the sentiment analysis techniques such as Elliott Waves and Wyckoff can be used to give some clues, human nature hasn’t changed much in the last 100 years. We are fuelled by fear and greed.
Now as we moved up from the swing low around $15,500, many retail traders were calling for 100k, (often the same people who were buying at 69k just before).
Instead, we moved near the older high (exactly into liquidity) and broke down. Now as we look back the price action is giving a very clear signal.
however we have to look at “how we got here” — we moved up on the hope Blackrock would have their ETF approved, later it did. We have since seen a halving and another 11 ETF’s approved. There is often talks about the PRICE MULTIPLIER, Trump endorsement and the list goes on.
Here’s the kicker; the Vaneck CEO came out and stated 90% of the buying of the ETF’s are retail (here’s the article) https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/2024-04-11-vaneck-ceo-retail-investors-account-for-90-of-bitcoin-etf-inflows-6624985400386
So we see all around, retail sentiment is clearly up. Vaneck CEO explained who the buy side is. If we look at COT data, clearly Leveraged Funds are selling.
So, now the question is what will drive the price to 100k, 250k, 350k or even some claiming 49million a Bitcoin…
After all of the positive sentiment above with the 12 ETF’s multiplied by a halving and multiplied again with the multiplier, shouldn’t the question actually be — why not 100k already?
In my next article, I have an angle that covers the cost of opportunities and why SPX can do its thing and why Bitcoin does not have to play ball.
The Truth About Bitcoin No One Wants to talk about was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.