$250,000 BTC remains in play.
Crypto prices have been wild for the last couple of days.
Top cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) all crashed by 20% or more.
It’s now been almost three months since bitcoin made new all-time highs.
Many inexperienced investors are giving up on crypto.
I hope you recognize they’re making a mistake. This selloff is a buy-the-dip opportunity.
The best part of the bitcoin cycle is still ahead of us.
BTC prices have followed a “3 up, 1 down” pattern. We call it the bitcoin 4- year cycle.
Every fourth year, crypto prices plunge. The last time that happened was in 2022.
Markets then recover slowly, with the biggest gains being handed out in years 2 and 3, as this table of bitcoin’s annual returns shows.
Year 2 was 2024, and year 3 is 2025:
Here’s another way to look at the 4-year cycle:
Source: AurelienOhayon
We’re in what has historically been the best time to own crypto — the “sweet spot” that’s typically produces the biggest gains.
If you think the four-year cycle is a myth, have a look at this chart.
It compares this bull market with the last two.
Source: Glassnode
Just look at how closely the current bull market (black line) mirrors the last two markets (green and blue lines).
Would this be happening if the four-year cycle was dead? I don’t think so.
Based on what I’m seeing, bitcoin price should peak around October 2025.
How high can bitcoin go?
In August 2023, when bitcoin was trading for $27,000, I told members of my premium crypto advisory RiskHedge Venture it was headed to $150,000. Bitcoin price has more than tripled since:
I think my bitcoin prediction was too conservative.
Trump has won the election, and his administration is the most pro-crypto administration ever. Crypto will finally be free from regulatory handcuffs. For the first time in years, innovators and entrepreneurs can build useful crypto projects without fear of getting sued or subpoenaed.
To add fuel to the fire, Trump also announced the creation of a US crypto strategic reserve which will hold BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars being unleashed on the crypto market.
It’s a perfect recipe for higher prices.
Based on all this, I believe BTC could run to $250,000 in 2025.
But I wouldn’t buy bitcoin.
During the “euphoria phase,” bitcoin is one of the worst cryptos to own.
You could divide the bitcoin cycle into roughly four phases as such:
As the above chart shows, the euphoria phase is when things get truly silly to the upside and the lion’s share of the profits is made.
The euphoria phase also marks the start of the so-called altseason.
During the accumulation and growth part of the cycle, bitcoin leads the charge. Big money floods in, pushing BTC to new heights.
During the altseason, bitcoin still does well, but it’s other cryptos that really start to surge.
During the last altseason, for example, Ethereum outperformed bitcoin by about 8 to 1. And many altcoins did even better.
But you don’t want to buy just any altcoin. I wouldn’t touch 99% of them, especially meme coins.
You want to choose quality cryptos with world changing potential. I’m talking about real business models making real money.
I just released a report on three such cryptos.
One crypto is disrupting Google. The second one has built an Airbnb for AI chips. And the third does business with big brands like Disney, Netflix, HBO, Apple, and Nike.
Click here to read the full report.
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I publish fresh research on stocks and crypto every Monday and Friday.
Where are we in the bitcoin cycle? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.