A 2020 vs 2024 Cycle Comparison
Despite the 6 months of painstaking chop, and the dashed hopes of a an already parabolic bull run, we are in fact closely following (and exceeding) the 2020 early stages of the previous bull market.
Below is a brief comparison of the 2020 pre-bull and the 2024 pre-bull. This should be considered one of many factors that strongly suggest the bull run is nearing the beginning stages of its parabolic phase, and that contrary to recent sentiment, this bull run is shaping up to outperform the 2020 bull run.
2020 vs. 2024 Pre-Bull:
BTC “2020 Cycle” (Pre-Bull run)BTC “2024 Cycle”
Bear Market Lows to Pre-Bull Highs:
The 2024 bull market has thus far markedly outperformed the 2020 bull market on its increase from bear market lows.
(2020 cycle) From the bear market lows of $3.2K in Dec 2018, Bitcoin went up roughly 3x in 6 months to over $12K.(2024 cycle) From the bear market lows of $15.7K in Nov of 2022, Bitcoin went up to 4.6X to over $73K in 5 months.
New ATH Before 2024 Halving:
Again, 2024 has thus far outperformed 2020 by breaching the previous ATH prior to the halving.
(2020 Cycle) Bitcoin did not break its ATH until Dec 2020, 7 month after the halving.(2024 Cycle) Bitcoin broke its previous ATH in March 2021, a month before the halving (8 months earlier than in 2020)
Post-Halving Performance:
The 5 months post-halving in 2020 far outperformed the 5 months thus far after the 2024 halving (+34% in 2020 vs -13% in 2024). It looks very much like Covid interrupted the 2020 cycle, and pushed back the positive price action to after the halving. Conversely, in 2024 the price recovery from the bear market depths continued uninterrupted and shifted that recovery to before the halving. As a result, the post-halving price action in 2024 has been lackluster and rather out of character for this stage of the bull run.
(2020 Cycle) From the halving in mid May 2020 to the equivalent of where we currently are in the market (mid October — 5 months later), Bitcoin ground upwards from roughly $9.3K to $12.5K (+34% in 5 months)(2024 Cycle) From the halving in mid April 2024, Bitcoin effectively ranged and ground down from roughly $65K in to its current price of $56.7K at the time of writing ( -13% in 5 months)
Pre-Bull Chop:
(2020 cycle) If we ignore the Black Swan Covid dip, Bitcoin actually ranged from the low $8,000 to mid $11,000 range for the better part of a year from Nov 2019 to Nov 2020 before finally starting the first parabolic move to $40K.(2024 Cycle) From its lows in Nov 2022, Bitcoin actually had a consistent grind higher until Mar 2024, a full 5 month grind back past ATH with minimal interruption.
Parabolic Phase:
(2020 Cycle) From mid October 2020 to early Nov 2021, Bitcoin went on to nearly 7X from $11K to $69K in 12 months.(2024 Cycle) TBD — Judging from past cycles, the accumulation phase should shortly be coming to an end, and the first stages parabolic portion of the bull run may be only weeks away.
Conclusion:
Sentiment is at peak bear market levels, with the vast majority of influencoors and crypto X calling for new lows and economic collapses. It is perhaps the bitter taste of dashed hopes that has made the past 5–6 months of accumulation so much more difficult for the bulls to weather.
The countdown to parabolic bull run has started, and whether you get in now or 10% lower will be completely irrelevant when Bitcoin is at $200K and your altcoins are 10X, 50X or 100X higher. When we have seen so much red for so long, it can be hard to imagine the true magnitude of the bull market to come. Ironically, once we are well within it, it will be hard to imagine the bear market that follows, but you will know it by the overwhelming calls for a super cycle and $1M Bitcoin.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)
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Bull Run Final Countdown was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.