Peak fear = peak opportunity
The market is testing us all. Crypto X is awash with calls for $40K Bitcoin, the end of the cycle, and FUD from every corner. Even the most die-hard crypto bulls are questioning their thesis, and there isn’t a degen in sight that has any liquidity left. And yet with peak fear comes peak opportunity.
The bull market is coming, and once it does the FOMO to exit the sidelines and get back into the game will create some GOD candles larger than any in crypto history.
The Bullish Thesis:
Stablecoin market caps are reaching record highs daily. Tether is at a record high of almost $120B.Rate Reductions are coming this month, and as many as three 1/4 point rate hikes are expected by year end.Trump presidency would be a massive boon to crypto regulation as well as the economy in general.M2 money supply has begun to tick higher again, and should ramp up as we approach the election in Nov.Despite the panic on Crypto X, Bitcoin is actually following previous cycles very closely. In 2020, prices went parabolic in Oct of 2020, 5 months after the halving. If 2024 were to mirror 2020, that would suggest the real bull run kicks on in the next 30 days or so.This cycle may in fact be RIGHT shifted rather than left shifted, as many were expecting early this year. My expectation is that the bull run extends into late fall 2025, and potentially later depending on when we finally do kick off.Market sentiment is at levels last seen in the depths of the bear market back in 2022, and huge amounts of capital are sitting on the sidelines. Once prices move, they will move hard as folks waiting to buy back on dips are forced to jump in to catch the moving train.Heavy support at the 21 week EMA (eww, TA).Traditional markets are flying, and liquidity outside the Crypto markets is strong. As rates drop, those funds will go further out the risk curve and much of it will settle into cryptoCheck out Virtual Bacon’s X post showing the incredible correlation between global liquidity and the Bitcoin price.Source: Virtual Bacon
Conclusion:
A FUDster holding BTC down.
Let’s be honest, the reason that crypto cycles are so similar is precisely because crypto directly absorbs the market sentiment, free from obstructions, regulations, operating hours, government intervention and so much more.
Fear and greed are very powerful emotions, and the stakes make them all the more influential. Yet boredom is the true retail-killer, as even those who have mastered their fear and greed succumb to the desire to act, even when inaction would be far more profitable.
Most market participants are slaves to their emotions … they sell when prices drop and fear takes over. They buy when prices rise and greed takes over. They trade and fiddle when patience is key. Those emotional market participants are like the resources in a PVP game. They are farmed by those who control their emotions and invest with a contrarian mindset.
Make no mistake, crypto is the ultimate PVP game. Most are terrible at it, but the few who master their emotions will harvest those that do not.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)
I release regular altcoin and crypto updates, subscribe for more info and to keep up to date!
Social Media:
Twitter (X) https://twitter.com/fourthesauriPhaver App: https://phaver.app.link/fourthesauri
Referral Bonuses/Codes:
✅Cross Chain Swaps & Bridge: RocketX Exchange
Best rates by far, bridge/swap ANY chain, swap/bridge in a single transaction, CEX & DEX, no KYC. 20% OFF Fees with code
✅Browser Wallet: (Metamask alternative): Rabby Wallet
Excellent security measures, very compatible, all EVM chains, built-in swaps and approvals checker.
✅Portfolio Tracker and Toolset: Nexus
Free version or premium version, best token & NFT tracker on the market, launchpad allocations, private sale tracker, research tools, etc.
Disclosures:
I own or am accumulating the above mentioned tokens/investments.Not financial advice.I rebalance my portfolio occasionally and the above may change from time to time.
Keep Calm and HODL On was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.