Ethereum is grappling with a decisive support range between the 100-day MA ($3.2K) and the 200-day MA ($3K), a critical region serving as the buyers’ last line of defense.
The outcome at this level is expected to shape Ethereum’s mid-term trajectory.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
ETH recently encountered heightened volatility as it approached the significant $3.2K-$3K price range, reflecting an intense battle between buyers and sellers. The price action highlights sellers’ attempts to push the asset below these key moving averages, signaling a potential bearish breakdown.
Currently, Ethereum is finding temporary support within this range, with the price confined between the $3.2K level and the bullish flag’s upper boundary. A decisive breakout in either direction is likely to determine the next major trend for Ethereum.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum consolidated near the 0.5 ($3.2K) and 0.618 ($3K) Fibonacci retracement levels before briefly breaking below this critical support zone. However, strong buying interest quickly drove the asset back above the $3.2K mark.
This region remains pivotal as it represents the final primary support zone for buyers. A sustained hold above the $3.2K level could reignite bullish momentum, targeting a recovery toward higher resistance lines.
Conversely, a breakdown below this range could trigger liquidations, potentially driving the price toward the $2.5K support zone. For now, Ethereum is consolidating near this critical region, with a battle between buyers and sellers dictating the market’s next move.
Onchain Analysis
By Shayan
The Binance liquidation heatmap provides insights into key levels where significant liquidation events are likely. Based on the clustering of liquidation levels for long and short positions, these levels often act as magnets, driving price action toward them as market participants aim to capture liquidity.
During the recent shake-off, Ethereum grabbed liquidity at the $3K mark, resulting in a sharp price recovery. A notable cluster of wrecked levels still exists just below the critical $3K support, representing long-position liquidations. This makes the $3K area highly attractive to bears and institutional sellers, increasing the probability of a bearish breakout toward these levels in the mid-term.
However, a significant liquidity pool also rests at the $4K threshold, marking a potential ultimate target for buyers. However, it is likely that the price may grab liquidity below $3K first, creating a shakeout phase before resuming a bullish trajectory toward $4K. While Ethereum’s current price action reflects consolidation, the $3K level remains pivotal. A bearish breakout to capture liquidity below $3K is plausible in the short-to-mid term.
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