Chain of Thoughts 2026–11–11
Brent slid again on peace hopes, but October’s hot inflation came from rent and food, a December hike went to 96% odds, and Bitcoin fell onto its 200-day line.
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The Verdict
Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $73,206, down 2.84%. The attempt to get back above the 50-week average (about $75,500) failed, and CPI pushed it the other way: Bitcoin traded near $73,900 after the print #6 and is now sitting on the 200-day average at about $73,200. Lean: cautious, tilting defensive. Monday’s selling was leverage. Tuesday’s was the cost of money, and that seller doesn’t run out after one day.
Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin is a fixed-supply bearer asset that no central bank can issue and no government can freeze. Over a multi-year horizon, that matters most when debt keeps growing and access to the financial system is used as leverage. A Fed hiking into sticky inflation makes the next few months harder. It doesn’t change the reason to hold it.
Ethereum — short term. $2,027.54, down 5.44%, through the $2,100 support that held Monday and a fresh low for this move. Lean: bearish, with $2,000 the round number now directly underneath. A rate shock hits the higher-beta asset harder, and ETH is still the one carrying the most leverage.
Ethereum — long term. Ethereum is the settlement layer most tokenized dollars and securities are being built on, and the bet is that ETH stays the collateral underneath that activity. Vitalik Buterin is now openly framing ETH as a store of value rather than just gas #22. That is a claim the market has to price over years, not a fix for this quarter.
Cardano — short term. $0.1731, down 4.72%. Monday’s dip under $0.18 looked like a wick. Tuesday turned it into a break. Lean: neutral-to-weak below $0.18, with $0.17 the next level to watch. There’s still nothing Cardano-specific in the tape. It’s moving with the board.
Cardano — long term. At about $6.5 billion in network value, ADA is priced well above what its current fees and DeFi activity generate. Owning it is a bet that its slow, peer-reviewed build eventually brings the usage to close that gap. Make your own call.
The rest. XRP $1.04 (−6.22%) and SOL $82.30 (−6.18%) took the hardest hits among the majors. BNB $676.62 (−1.89%) slipped through the $680 cushion it had held.
Why The Market Is Here
The inflation isn’t coming from oil anymore. October CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% consensus, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2% #1. Energy, the driver in September, rose just 0.7%. The pressure came from shelter, rent and food #2. Core has now printed 0.3% three months running #4. That matters for crypto because it breaks the trade markets have leaned on for weeks: if Hormuz calms down, oil falls, inflation fades, and the Fed relaxes. Tuesday proved the first two steps can happen without the third.
Who pushed? The Fed, out loud. Governor Waller said he would back a quarter-point hike in December even if inflation improved, and that a half-point should be on the table if core prints 0.3% or more #5 #3. Core then printed exactly 0.3%. December hike odds jumped from about 76% to 96% #5. The 10-year yield rose to about 4.99%, the dollar index gained 0.6%, and CME gold fell 1.5%. When gold falls alongside a rising dollar, the market is paying for real yield, not hedging chaos. Binance Research argues that global tightening is slowing and that Bitcoin benefits when it does #21. That may be true elsewhere, but the US is the exception, and the US sets the dollar’s price.
Monday’s split is over, and that’s the clearer signal. Yesterday, stocks rallied and crypto fell, which pointed at a crypto-only seller. Today the S&P and Nasdaq both fell (−0.6% and −0.75% intraday) alongside Bitcoin. A shared move points at a shared cause: the price of money. Leverage flushes end when positions are gone. Rate repricing ends when the Fed says so, and Waller just said December.
The peace track kept oil falling, which makes the CPI miss worse, not better. Trump called renewed strikes on Iran “highly unlikely” if talks make progress #7, and after his call with Qatar’s prime minister said Gulf states prefer the blockade status quo to new action #8. Brent fell another 2% to about $90.72. But the conflict is still hot underneath: Iran has dropped its 2,000km cap on missile range #10, Saudi-Houthi attacks are escalating #11, and Al Jazeera’s read is “positive momentum,” not a deal #9. If cheaper oil couldn’t produce a soft print, a peace deal is no longer a guaranteed rescue for risk assets.
Risk capital also has a new $1.3 trillion destination. Anthropic set its IPO range at a valuation of up to about $1.3–1.4 trillion #25. A listing that size pulls growth money toward one ticket at the same moment rates are pulling it toward bonds. That’s not why Bitcoin fell today, but it is one more reason the marginal speculative dollar isn’t rushing back.
Institutional Pulse
The ETF bleed slowed, but it hasn’t stopped. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on Monday, a smaller number than last week’s pace, with BlackRock’s IBIT down $213 million on its own #12. That’s seven straight sessions and about $1.66 billion out of IBIT since Oct. 30 #13. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT took in $22 million, a small sign that new wirehouse channels are buying while the biggest fund is being sold. Net, the year-to-date figure is about −$1.1 billion against roughly +$25 billion at this point in 2024 and 2025 #12.
The earnings show where the retail money went. eToro’s Q3 profit fell 74% on weaker crypto trading #16. Canaan’s revenue fell 90% as mining-rig sales collapsed #17. BitGo’s profit nearly doubled on crypto gains while revenue fell 51% #18. Trading desks and hardware makers are reporting a quiet quarter. That fits a market where the selling is institutional and the dip-buyers aren’t showing up in volume.
Washington is pruning the offshore routes. Binance has halted transfers to and from MEXC after FinCEN named the exchange a primary money-laundering concern and cut it off from the US financial system #14. FinCEN says MEXC handled at least $16 billion in illicit flows from 2021 to 2026 #15. That’s not a market-wide solvency event, but it does mean some offshore leverage just lost its on-ramp. Meanwhile, the regulated side kept connecting: Moody’s is testing credit-rating delivery across chains with Chainlink #23, and Visa added Monad to its stablecoin settlement options #24.
Policy risk, new data point. Elizabeth Warren, crypto’s sharpest critic in the Senate, is set to chair the Banking Committee in January and is promising “tough questions” on prediction markets and Trump-linked crypto #19 #20. The committee that writes market-structure rules will be run by the person most likely to slow them down. If you’re holding on the assumption of a friendly 2027 legislative calendar, that window just got shorter.
OTC, quietly. Two days of forced and rate-driven selling into the 200-day average is the kind of tape where large buyers prefer to work off-exchange. The tell will be the ETF line, not the price: if Tuesday’s flow (released after this window) comes in near flat while BTC sits on $73,000, someone is absorbing size without chasing the screen.
Calendar Watch
Wednesday, Nov. 11: Veterans Day. US stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, so the 10-year can’t confirm or reverse Tuesday’s move until Thursday. Expect thinner macro signal and a crypto tape that trades on its own flows for a day.
Dec. 10: November CPI, which brings the year-over-year rate back after October’s shutdown gap #4. With core at 0.3% for three months and Waller’s half-point marker already hit, that print could decide between a 25bp and a 50bp hike at December’s meeting.
Signals Worth Watching
BTC $73,200 (200-day average). A daily close below it puts Wintermute’s $68,000 support in play. Holding it through Wednesday’s bond-market holiday would mean the rate shock is priced for now.BTC $75,500 (50-week average). Still the reclaim level. Until it’s back above, every bounce runs into it as resistance.ETH $2,000. A daily close below the round number opens the next leg. Getting back above $2,100 would mean Tuesday was an overshoot.ADA $0.17. Now that $0.18 is lost, this is the next floor. Reclaiming $0.18 on a close would bring it back to neutral.The 10-year at 5%. A clean break above it on Thursday tightens financial conditions for every risk asset. A pullback to 4.85% would say the market overreacted to one print.50bp odds for December. If they climb above roughly 20%, expect another leg of de-risking across crypto. They were around 10% after the print.Brent $90. Below it, oil is clearly no longer the inflation story, which puts all the pressure on shelter and wages and keeps the Fed hawkish regardless of Hormuz.Retired: the stocks-up/BTC-down split from Monday. It lasted one session and closed today with both falling together. It was a leverage event, not a lasting decoupling.
If I Had $100 This Month
The Fed just told you it’s hiking into December, and Bitcoin is sitting on its 200-day line. A fixed schedule lets you buy through a rate shock without having to guess the low.
$60 → BTC. It’s testing the 200-day average, and a monthly buy here doesn’t depend on whether that line holds.$25 → ETH. It broke $2,100 and is carrying the most leverage, so keep it a measured slice rather than chasing the discount.$15 → ADA. It lost $0.18 with no catalyst of its own, so the smallest weight still fits.
Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.
This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.
Sources
#1 — Inflation remained elevated in October, CPI report shows, upping odds of Fed interest rate hike — CBS News#2 — ‘Not great’: October CPI inflation rises 0.4% as food and rent costs spike — Yahoo Finance#3 — CPI Report Shows Core Prices Up 0.3% Again, Hitting Waller’s Line for Weighing a Half Point Hike — StockTitan#4 — October CPI rose 0.4% as government shutdown blocks most annual rates — Quartz#5 — Bitcoin price eyes $74K as Fed rate-hike bets hit 96% after Waller speech — Cointelegraph#6 — Bitcoin Price Trades Near $73,900 After Hot CPI Print — Bitcoin Magazine#7 — Trump says restarting Iran war ‘highly unlikely,’ warns he could strike — CNBC#8 — Trump says renewed Iran strikes ‘quite unlikely’ as Gulf allies back blockade status quo — investingLive#9 — ‘Positive momentum’: Is the US war on Iran about to end? — Al Jazeera#10 — Iran lifts 2,000km limit on its ballistic missiles: What that means — Al Jazeera#11 — Attacks escalate between Saudi-led forces and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis — Al Jazeera#12 — Bitcoin ETF Outflows Slow to $201M as IBIT Losses Hit $1.7B — Cointelegraph#13 — Investors pull money from BlackRock’s IBIT for a seventh straight day — Cryptopolitan#14 — Binance Halts MEXC Transfers as FinCEN Cuts Exchange Off From US Financial System — Decrypt#15 — Binance blocks MEXC transfers after FinCEN’s $16B crackdown — crypto.news#16 — eToro’s Q3 profit plunges 74% as weaker crypto trading weighs on earnings — The Block#17 — Canaan’s Q3 revenue plunges 90% to $14.5 million as bitcoin mining hardware sales slump — The Block#18 — BitGo Q3 profit nearly doubles on crypto gains as revenue falls 51% — Cointelegraph#19 — ‘Tough Questions’ Ahead: Warren Targets Prediction Markets, Trump Crypto as Banking Chair — Decrypt#20 — Crypto’s Toughest Critic, Set to Chair Senate Banking: Can She Move Prices? — BeInCrypto#21 — Bitcoin may benefit as global tightening slows, Binance Research says — Cointelegraph#22 — Morning Minute: Vitalik Recasts ETH as a Store of Value — Decrypt#23 — Moody’s and Chainlink test cross-chain credit ratings distribution — The Block#24 — Visa adds Monad to stablecoin settlement network options — The Block#25 — Anthropic heads for lower than expected $1.3 trillion valuation in stock market debut — BBC Business
Market Data
Asset Price 24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC) $73,206 -2.84%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,027.54 -5.44%
Cardano (ADA) $0.1731 -4.72%
Solana (SOL) $82.30 -6.18%
BNB $676.62 -1.89%
XRP $1.04 -6.22%Fear & Greed: 32 — Fear (was 29 yesterday)
S&P 500: -0.62% · Nasdaq: -0.75% · DXY: 102.27 (+0.61%) · Gold: $4,052 (-1.51%)
Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.
The Oil Fell. The Rent Didn’t. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.