Bitcoin dumped below $74,000 earlier today after closing five straight weeks in the red.
And according to CryptosRus, the question is whether new capital can support any rebound the OG cryptocurrency makes.
Bitcoin’s $76K Test Comes Down to Capital Flows
In a November 9 analysis, CryptosRus pointed to approximately $1.65 billion in combined weekly outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, compared with a $212 billion expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet since its low at the end of last year.
As CryptoPotato reported, BTC ETFs bled about $1.28 billion last week, with over $840 million of that coming from the last two trading days. On the other hand, their ETH counterparts saw more than $365 million flow out, with the only green day that week being November 4, when about $53 came into the funds.
According to CryptosRus, ETFs are one of crypto’s most visible channels for institutional investment, with persistent withdrawals meaning BTC must now rely more heavily on “native demand, treasury buyers, or leveraged positioning.” They also noted that Ethereum ETFs still hold about $12 billion in cumulative net inflows, suggesting that the longer-term investment channel is still intact even with the recent selling.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet hit $6.75 trillion, taking it $212 billion above its December 2025 low, with about $390 billion of that increase made up of Treasury holdings, partly offset by mortgage-backed securities rolling off. But while a growing balance sheet can improve the backdrop for risk assets, the analysis noted that it’s not exactly the same as buying crypto directly.
“That distinction matters when ETF flows are still negative and Bitcoin is struggling to establish momentum,” CryptosRus noted.
Indeed, the asset was trading just above $74,000 at the time of writing, having lost 2.5% from its price in 24 hours and over 5% in the last 7 days. Across 30 days, the damage was worse, with CoinGecko data showing a 10% drop in that period, keeping BTC more than 27% lower than where it was one year ago and 41% under its October 2025 all-time high.
Liquidations and Economic Data Add to BTC’s Problems
The latest selling has already triggered widespread liquidations, with more than $1 billion in leveraged positions wiped out in one day, $930 million of that being long positions.
More pressure could also come from this week’s US economic calendar, as the CPI figures for October are due tomorrow, followed by PPI data on Friday. In addition, there are 17 Federal Reserve speaking events to come, as well as OPEC’s oil market report set for November 11 that could influence expectations around inflation.
For CryptosRus, for the outlook on Bitcoin to turn bullish, it needs a sustained recovery above $76,000 backed by stronger spot trading volume and improving ETF flows.
“The setup would weaken if BTC repeatedly rejects near $76,000, forms a lower high and loses short-term trend support on rising sell volume,” read the analysis. “A rebound without ETF improvement would also remain vulnerable to reversal.”
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