Chain of Thoughts 2026–11–03
Strategy spent $208 million buying back its own preferred stock and $65.5 million on bitcoin. Binance’s net outflows passed $7 billion. Stocks rallied and BTC slipped, the day before America votes.
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The Verdict
Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $77,488, down 0.56%. The S&P and Nasdaq rose almost 1% on Monday and BTC didn’t follow. That leaves the four-session standoff between $79,000 and $76,500 unresolved, so this edition resets the levels to what the chart and the buyers are actually showing. The floor is the 100-day moving average at about $76,550 (1.2% below), which has held since mid-August and sits just above last week’s $76,300 low #7. The ceiling is $80,846 (4.3% above), the average price Strategy paid for its latest coins #2. Lean: neutral, tilted cautious into the vote. A daily close under $76,550 opens $75,000 and then the 200-day average near $73,125 (5.6% below).
Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million, and the long-term case is that savings keep moving into an asset no central bank or company can dilute. This week tests the second half of that sentence. Exchanges can be hacked and treasury companies can change priorities, but neither changes the supply schedule. The long-term case depends on demand from many holders, not one big buyer.
Ethereum — short term. $2,273.27, up 0.34%, the only major in the green. It held the $2,200 floor (3.2% below) for another day and sits 1.2% under the $2,300 reclaim line. The best-known corporate ether buyer is almost done buying: Bitmine added 8,573 ETH last week, bringing it to 6.06 million ETH, 99% of its 5%-of-supply target #11. Roughly 50,000 ETH more and that weekly bid stops by design. A daily close above $2,300 turns the lean neutral. A close under $2,200 opens $2,100.
Ethereum — long term. Ethereum is the main settlement network for stablecoins and tokenized assets, and the bet is that ETH becomes the fee and collateral asset for that system. The supporting trend continued this week: Hong Kong moved tokenized settlement to 24/7 and is planning stablecoin trials #19. The risk hasn’t changed either. Those flows can grow without ETH capturing the value.
Cardano — short term. $0.1900, down 1.52%. ADA fell more than BTC on a day ETH rose, and it now sits 5.3% above the $0.18 floor. No Cardano-specific news moved it. It’s trading as a high-beta altcoin in a risk-off week for crypto, and the floor matters more than any headline this week.
Cardano — long term. ADA has a market value of about $7.1 billion. Cardano’s development is deliberate, with formal proposals and peer review before shipping, and recent rounds have focused on quantum-resistant signatures and regulated stablecoins. Network fees and on-chain usage are still a small fraction of what that valuation implies. Compare that gap with the roadmap and make your own call.
Solana and the rest. BNB $701.34 (−1.77%) gave back Sunday’s lead and was the weakest major. The $680 floor is now 3.0% below, with Binance’s full reserve proof due today. SOL $93.47 (−1.32%) has the attacker’s laundering on its chain: Chainalysis says the hackers have started swapping stolen Solana tokens for bitcoin #12. XRP $1.25 (flat) held even though the hacker moved all 233 million stolen XRP, about $293 million, into six new wallets #14.
Why The Market Is Here
The largest corporate buyer bought its own paper first. Strategy’s weekly filing shows 811 BTC bought for $65.5 million at an average of $80,846 #2. In the same week it spent $208.2 million buying back 2.09 million shares of STRC, its preferred stock, more than three times its bitcoin spend #1. The week before, the STRC buyback was $204.9 million. Strategy funded it by selling about $164 million of common stock: $65.5 million went to bitcoin and $98.5 million went to cash #2. Its dollar reserve is now $4.9 billion and its holdings are 849,327 BTC #3.
Who is pushing, and why. Strategy didn’t give a reason, but the pattern is clear: issue common stock, retire preferred stock, hold more dollars, buy a little bitcoin. That’s what a company does to protect its funding when its own securities are under pressure, eight days before MSCI rules on whether to drop it from its indexes. For two years, Strategy’s money-raising machine has been bitcoin’s most dependable buyer. Over the last two weeks, about $413 million went into buying back its own stock and $87.6 million went into BTC. A ratio like that is why BTC can’t hold rallies that stocks hold. Strive added another $10 million of bitcoin #16, but that’s small change next to what Strategy used to buy.
Binance passed the proof it set and missed the one it promised. On Monday, users could verify their balances against a Saturday snapshot that shows 10 assets, including BTC, ETH and USDT, backed at least 1:1 #4. The full zero-knowledge proof, promised for Monday, is now due “by Tuesday, 2026–11–03 (UTC)” because it takes 40 to 50 hours to compute #5. Net outflows grew past $7 billion by Monday afternoon, up from $5.8 billion earlier that day. Binance’s tracked wallets now hold about $127.9 billion, compared with $144.9 billion on the day of the hack #6 #5. OKX took in $445 million and Bybit took in $112 million #6, so most of the money left exchanges altogether. One critic counted only 21 of 252 listed assets open for withdrawal #5. Binance’s backstop is also thinner now. Its SAFU emergency bitcoin wallet is down to about 7,500 BTC from 15,000, and its policy sets no deadline to refill it #4.
The attacker is still holding bitcoin, not selling it. The roughly 18,000 BTC from the hack hadn’t moved as of Sunday #20, and the stolen Solana is being converted into BTC #12. A weekend swap halt at THORChain also slowed the laundering #13. For now the largest overhang in the market is accumulating BTC. That changes once those coins reach a broker.
The election is priced. The policy window may not be. Kalshi gives Democrats a 93.6% chance of winning the House on Tuesday, and Trump says he’ll become “Mr Veto” if they do #7. A veto can block bills. It can’t pass one, and crypto market-structure legislation still needs a willing Congress. If the odds are right, the window for pro-crypto law is likely to close in January, not 2028, and crypto trades as a policy-risk asset until that’s clear. The seasonal pattern doesn’t help either: BTC finished the fourth quarter lower in each of the last three midterm years, by 17.3%, 43.5% and 14.8%, though all three were already bear markets #7.
Oil fell. War risk didn’t. Brent traded near $108.50 on Monday morning, down about 2.8% from Friday, as Iranian negotiators met in Qatar on reopening Hormuz #8. Axios reported that Netanyahu urged Trump to strike Iran right after the midterms, a vessel in the Strait was hit by a projectile on Sunday, and Goldman raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105 from $90, saying a roughly $27 war premium explains most of October’s rally #8. Tehran says talks with Washington could resume “within a short period” if its demands are met #9. Lower oil eased worries about a Fed hike, and gold rose 1.5% #10. Gold and stocks both benefited from cheaper oil on Monday. Bitcoin didn’t, which tells you its problem this week is crypto-specific supply and demand, not macro.
Institutional Pulse
ETFs: no Monday print yet. Monday’s flows publish Tuesday. The new context is how thin the cushion is: after October’s outflows, US spot bitcoin ETFs are up only about $361 million for 2026 #15. Another week like Friday’s would put the year in the red.
Corporate treasuries: one buyer near its finish line, one busy with its own stock. Bitmine is 99% of the way to its ETH target #11. Strategy is spending most of its new money on its own preferred stock #1. Neither is selling, but both are buying less of the underlying coin than they did a quarter ago. Tom Lee argues the muted reaction to the hack is “very constructive”: ETH fell about 4% this time, against 8% right after the 2025 Bybit hack #11. That’s a fair point about resilience. It says less about where new demand will come from.
OTC: where the $7 billion went. About nine of every ten dollars leaving Binance went to private wallets, not rival exchanges #5. Coins in cold storage aren’t for sale. If any of that comes back to market this week, it will come through OTC desks rather than order books, and the first sign will be exchange inflows rising after the election, not a sudden price drop.
Calendar Watch
Tue Nov 3: US midterm elections. Binance’s full zero-knowledge reserve proof is due by the end of the day UTC #5. September job openings data is released #7.Wed Nov 4: First ETF print that includes election-day flows. Binance takes a new reserve snapshot covering more tokens, with its proof due 40 to 50 hours later #4.Fri Nov 6: Payrolls are forecast at +65,000 after September’s +29,000. The CME tool prices a December hike at 67–75% #7. A weak number is the clearest path to cutting those odds.
Signals Worth Watching
BTC $76,550 vs. $80,846. New levels. A daily close below the 100-day average sends it toward $75,000. A close above Strategy’s latest average cost would mean buyers are paying more than the market’s biggest buyer just did.Strategy’s next filing. If next Monday’s 8-K shows another week of STRC buybacks larger than its bitcoin buys, the shift from buying bitcoin to managing its balance sheet is a pattern, not a one-off. Watch MSCI’s November 11 decision for why.Binance’s full proof. A clean report today ends the solvency question. Another delay, or a gap in any asset, brings it back. BNB at $680 (3.0% below) is the quick check.The attacker’s BTC. It’s likely growing, not shrinking. The first transfer of that stack to an exchange or OTC desk would matter more than the election result.Post-election strike risk. Netanyahu’s reported push for strikes after the vote puts Wednesday and Thursday in play. A Brent rebound above $113 would mean the market is pricing it.ADA $0.18. 5.3% below. A daily close under it breaks the last clean floor.
If I Had $100 This Month
The run on Binance turned out larger than Sunday’s first count but stayed orderly, and the bigger news is that bitcoin’s most reliable corporate buyer is now spending most of its money on itself. With an election, a reserve proof and a jobs report all inside four days, spreading buys out matters more than timing them.
$60 → BTC. Split it in thirds: one after the election result, one after Friday’s payrolls, and one on any daily close under $76,550 or after the November 10 CPI, whichever comes first.$25 → ETH. It was the only major that rose on Monday, but its biggest corporate buyer is about to stop, so buy half now and the rest on a daily close above $2,300.$15 → ADA. Keep it small and on your normal schedule, and pause only on a daily close below $0.18.
Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies. Self-custody has its own homework this week: BTCPay Server warned of hot-wallet thefts on outdated versions #17, and Trezor raised its passphrase limit after a series of Coldcard wallet thefts #18. Update your software and use a long passphrase.
This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.
Sources
#1 — Strategy spends triple its weekly Bitcoin outlay on STRC buybacks — Cointelegraph#2 — Strategy Resumes Bitcoin Buys With $66M Purchase — Decrypt via Yahoo Finance#3 — Strategy Buys 811 Bitcoin for $65.5M as Cash Reserve Reaches $4.9B — Bitcoin.com News#4 — Binance taps half its SAFU Bitcoin holdings, releases reserve proof — Cointelegraph#5 — Binance Has Shed $16B Since The Hack as Its Proof Lands Tuesday — Bitcoin.com News#6 — OKX draws $445M in net inflows as Binance outflows exceed $7B — Cointelegraph#7 — BTC heads into US midterm showdown: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week — Cointelegraph#8 — Oil slides on Hormuz deal hopes but Trump keeps Iran strikes on the table — Euronews#9 — Iran says US talks could resume ‘within a short period’ if demands are met — Al Jazeera#10 — Gold, silver rebound as Iran diplomacy sends oil lower, easing Fed tightening concerns — Kitco#11 — Bitmine Hits 99% of Ether Goal as Tom Lee Downplays Impact of $6.3B Binance Hack — Bitcoin.com News#12 — Binance hackers begin swapping stolen Solana tokens for Bitcoin: Chainalysis — Cointelegraph#13 — THORChain halts swaps after block reorg bug, slowing Binance hackers — Cointelegraph#14 — Binance Hacker Moves All $293M in Stolen XRP as $242M Slips out Through Tron — Bitcoin.com News#15 — Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million in outflows Friday, and 2026 is barely green now — CoinDesk#16 — Strive inches closer to becoming second-largest public bitcoin holder after latest $10 million buy — The Block#17 — BTCPay Server warns of hot wallet thefts running on outdated software — Cointelegraph#18 — Trezor lifts password ceiling after Coldcard’s $100M wallet thefts — Cointelegraph#19 — Hong Kong takes tokenized settlement to 24/7, plans stablecoin trials — Cointelegraph#20 — North Korea’s $1.4B Bitcoin Haul From Binance Hack Remains Untouched — Bitcoin.com News
Market Data
Asset Price 24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC) $77,488 -0.56%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,273.27 +0.34%
Cardano (ADA) $0.1900 -1.52%
Solana (SOL) $93.47 -1.32%
BNB $701.34 -1.77%
XRP $1.25 +0.00%Fear & Greed: 37 — Fear (was 34 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.87% · Nasdaq: +0.95% · DXY: 101.71 (-0.18%) · Gold: $3,970 (+1.52%)
Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.
The Biggest Buyer Bought Its Own Paper was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.