Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for four weeks in a row.
Analyst Ash Crypto sees that as a sign the bottom is in, yet the average still slopes down, and Bitcoin sits about a third below its all-time high.
Bitcoin Holds Above a Falling 50-Week Average
“Historically, this means the bottom is in and the new bull market has started,” Ash Crypto wrote in a post on X.
The weekly chart attached to the post showed BTC near $84,000 against a 50-week average of roughly $77,000, after a low near $58,000 and a strong green weekly candle that carried price back above the line. That average is the mean of the last 50 weekly closes, which is about a year of trading.
As CryptoPotato reported earlier, Bitcoin topped out near $87,000 on October 2, slid to around $80,000 last Thursday, and had been trading near $83,000 since a Friday rebound. But the latest CoinGecko data shows it passing $84,000, up about 1% in the last 24 hours and 9% on the month, but down 2% across seven days and 24% lower than where it was a year ago.
A CryptoRus note on X reminded that an earlier short-lived push through $84,000 forced out nearly $83 million in short positions, bets on falling price that traders must close when it climbs. That forced buying can speed up a move but cannot sustain one alone, according to the note, which puts the market at “a decision point rather than a confirmed breakout.”
Fund flows have not helped. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681 million in net outflows last week, the most since late June, including $487 million on Wednesday as the price dropped.
Confirmation Still Depends on Demand
Meanwhile, XWIN Japan sees conditions for a bottom improving but ties confirmation to sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying and a continued recovery in demand.
Its on-chain charts show exchange BTC reserves still low and whale holdings around 3 million BTC, while its Apparent Demand measure has climbed from deeply negative levels but remains below zero.
The firm noted that markets have priced in roughly an 18% chance of an October Fed rate hike, with the November 3 midterms approaching. In XWIN’s words, “A correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”
CryptoRus wants repeated four-hour closes above $84,000 on rising volume and says another rejection there would show positioning did more of the work than conviction. Furthermore, it said releases such as inflation data (CPI and PPI), retail sales, and jobless claims could change market liquidity quickly.
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