Chain of Thoughts 2026–10–06
Bitcoin’s biggest corporate buyer spent six times more buying back its own preferred stock than buying bitcoin. Futures traders took ADA up 6% while BTC finished flat. When the large balance sheets step back and leverage leads, you need to know who is actually doing the buying.
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The Verdict
Bitcoin — short term (3–5 months). $85,258, flat (−0.01%). It just posted its best weekly close in eight months, then failed to push higher on Monday #1. The next ceiling is the $87,599 retracement level, 2.7% above, and behind it the 100-week average at $89,832, 5.4% above #2. Bitcoin is sitting right on its $85,000 floor, which is 0.3% below. A daily close under it opens a slide toward the moving-average cluster at $75,000–79,000 #2. A second, stronger golden cross just printed #3. Golden crosses are lagging signals. They describe a trend that’s already underway. The lean is still up, but the next leg needs a buyer that isn’t there yet.
Bitcoin — long term (1–3 years). Bitcoin’s long-term case depends on corporate holders becoming permanent owners rather than traders. That process is now visible. Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, about 4% of all bitcoin that will ever exist #4. Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC and bought back 11,000 to show creditors it can raise cash, as it prepares to seek a credit rating #6. Bitcoin treasury companies are starting to act like rated borrowers, financing themselves with bonds and preferred shares against their coins. That supports demand over a multi-year horizon. It also means the largest holders now have creditors, and creditors can force a sale in a bad year.
Ethereum — short term. $2,696.27, down 0.10%. Spot ether ETFs lost $138 million last week while bitcoin funds took in money #7. The $2,822 supply zone is 4.7% above. The $2,300 invalidation is 14.7% below. The ETF bleed has now lasted a full week, and the price hasn’t broken down. Something is absorbing the selling.
Ethereum — long term. Ether’s long-term case rests on becoming the settlement layer for tokenized assets, and the infrastructure is arriving faster than the law. OKX and ICE, the owner of the NYSE, plan 24/7 tokenized stock trading under an SEC exemption #9. On the supply side, one company, Bitmine, is at 99% of its goal of owning 5% of all ether #8. Steady demand from tokenization is a slow, durable tailwind. A single holder controlling one-twentieth of the supply is a concentration risk that your thesis has to account for.
Cardano — short term. $0.2641, up 6.32%. It peaked near $0.27 on Monday and gave part of it back. It’s now testing the $0.2632 breakout level, 0.3% below. A confirmed hold puts the $0.275–0.28 resistance zone in view (about 6% above), then the $0.3136 swing high, 18.7% above #10. Support sits at the 200-day EMA, $0.2472, 6.4% below, then $0.2328, 11.9% below.
Cardano — long term. Cardano’s long-term value depends on whether the network can attract the dollar liquidity that drives on-chain activity elsewhere. Stablecoins are where usage is growing fastest. Chainalysis found peer-to-peer stablecoin wallets in China grew 43-fold despite the country’s restrictions #12. Without deep dollar liquidity on-chain, ADA’s price gets set by futures traders rather than by people using the network. Cardano’s market value is now about $9.9 billion. Set that against how much dollar liquidity actually sits on Cardano, and make your own call.
Solana and the rest. SOL $119.44, down 1.74%, the weakest of the six. BNB $787.18, down 0.11%. XRP $1.49, down 0.66%, slipping back under $1.50.
Why The Market Is Here
Oil traded supply, not war. The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, and Brent rose 0.79% to $103.06 in early trading, while Abu Dhabi’s Murban grade hit $110 #15 #13. Then Saudi Arabia cut its benchmark price to Asia as flows expand, and Brent fell back toward $101 #14. The reason is that Middle East oil exports have climbed back above pre-war levels, helped by US naval escorts out of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers #16. Hormuz is still effectively closed to normal commercial shipping. But the oil is getting out. The market isn’t stuck between Brent above $105 and below $100. It’s sitting in the middle, because the war continues while the barrels keep moving.
The Red Sea route moved in the Saudis’ favor. Yemeni government forces said they took Dhubab and key positions around the Bab al-Mandab strait, with the Saudi-led coalition saying 100 jets are flying in support #17 #18. If those gains hold, the Red Sea bypass that Saudi exports depend on becomes safer. That partly explains why the Aramco attack claim didn’t hold Brent above $103.
The war got closer to Europe. The Pentagon pulled every US bomber out of RAF Fairford in England after a suspected terror plot near the base, which British officials say shows strong signs of Iranian involvement #19. Markets didn’t react. It’s still a reminder that this conflict now reaches well beyond the Gulf.
Bonds are still the ceiling. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.30%, the upper line from last week, and a level not seen since 2002 before the recent run #20. The ISM services index slowed to 54.9 but its prices component rose to 74, the highest since March 2025 #21. Activity is cooling while costs keep rising, which is the mix that keeps yields elevated. The odds of an October hike have fallen to 18.3% from 70% a week ago after Friday’s 29,000 payrolls print #2. Stocks took the softer jobs data as good news. Bitcoin is still waiting for the 10-year to agree.
Cardano’s 6% came from futures traders. ADA futures open interest rose 15% in 24 hours to $615 million, funding stayed positive, and nearly all of the liquidations were shorts being forced out #10. That means leveraged longs piled in and squeezed short sellers. It isn’t spot buyers accumulating. Cardano also just flashed a golden cross, and the last one was followed by a 42.4% decline #11. Rallies built on leverage can keep going, but they reverse quickly when funding turns.
Fear & Greed jumped five points, to 70. Bitcoin didn’t move. The greed came from altcoin leverage, not from the asset most people hold.
Institutional Pulse
The ETF bid stayed positive but got smaller. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $241.09 million last week, their third straight week of inflows #2. Ether funds lost $138 million over the same week #7. The money is still choosing bitcoin over ether, but the weekly bitcoin total is a tenth of the $2.39 billion week in mid-September.
Strategy put its cash into its own paper. Strategy bought 334 BTC for $28.7 million at about $85,839 each. Over the same week it spent about $176 million buying back its STRC preferred stock #5 #4. It also reported a $21 billion third-quarter gain on its holdings. The company that set the pace for corporate bitcoin buying now gets more value from shrinking its preferred stock than from adding coins. That’s a reasonable choice for its shareholders. It also means the most reliable bid in this market is smaller than its headlines suggest.
Others stepped in. Strive added 2,000 BTC, its biggest purchase since June, and is closing in on MARA’s holdings #22. Bitmine added 15,112 ETH, about $41 million #8. Buys this size usually go through OTC desks, so they don’t move the exchange price on the day they happen. That’s part of why bitcoin can sit still while 2,000 coins change hands.
Metaplanet’s round trip. It sold 10,000 BTC for about $790 million and bought back 11,000 for about $950 million, ending the quarter with 44,000 BTC #6. The aim was to prove to future creditors that it can sell. The sale was also below cost, which produced an estimated $97 million tax asset. Treasury companies now trade their own bitcoin for balance-sheet reasons. You should expect more of that.
Calendar Watch
Wednesday, October 7. The FOMC minutes now arrive with October hike odds down to 18.3%. A hawkish tone matters more than it did a week ago, because the market has already moved toward the dovish side. October 7–8. Token2049. October 14. September CPI, the first test of whether ISM’s 74 prices reading shows up in consumer inflation.
Signals Worth Watching
$85,000. 0.3% below. It’s the line bitcoin is sitting on. A daily close below it opens $79,000 and then the $75,000 moving-average cluster.
$87,599, then $89,832. 2.7% and 5.4% above. A daily close over the first, backed by a fourth week of ETF inflows, makes $90,000 the target.
ADA funding. If ADA holds $0.2632 while funding cools and open interest stops rising, spot buyers are taking over from leverage. If funding spikes while the price stalls under $0.28, expect a flush back toward $0.2472.
The CFTC’s retail leverage rule. The CFTC proposed a federal framework for leveraged retail crypto trading #23. Moves like Cardano’s are driven by exactly this kind of trading. A rule that brings it onshore could deepen these markets, and it could also make the swings sharper.
Brent at $100–105. It’s back inside the range, so neither of yesterday’s lines triggered. Another Houthi strike that keeps Brent above $105 would put pressure on yields again. A Saudi move to keep cutting prices toward $100 would be the oil market telling you supply has won.
What would change the thesis. Upside: the 10-year below 5.15%, a dovish tone in the FOMC minutes, a fourth week of ETF inflows and a daily close above $87,600. Downside: the 10-year above 5.35%, hot CPI, Strategy pausing BTC buys entirely and a daily close under $85,000 that doesn’t recover within two sessions.
If I Had $100 This Month
Bitcoin is flat at its floor, ether is absorbing ETF outflows, and the coin making headlines is moving on borrowed money. A fixed monthly buy is how you take part without chasing anyone’s leverage.
$60 → BTC. ETF inflows are still positive and new corporate buyers like Strive are stepping in, even with Strategy buying less.$25 → ETH. A full week of ETF outflows hasn’t broken the price, and tokenization infrastructure keeps getting built on it.$15 → ADA. Keep the position small. This move came from futures, so let the funding reset before adding more.
Hold actual coins. Not ETF shares, not equity proxies.
This is how I’d think about it. Make your own call.
Sources
#1 — Bitcoin price fails to break higher after best weekly close in eight months — CoinTelegraph#2 — Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC holds $86K as ETF inflows, Fed hike bets ease — FXStreet#3 — Bitcoin Just Flashed a Second, Stronger Golden Cross: Here’s What That Means — Decrypt#4 — ‘More orange than ever’: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys 334 bitcoin for $28.7 million as total holdings top 848,000 BTC — The Block#5 — Strategy opts for bigger spending on STRC buybacks over BTC purchases — CoinTelegraph#6 — Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC in Q3 before buying back 11,000 BTC to ‘demonstrate liquidity’ — The Block#7 — Bitcoin ETFs notch third inflow week as Ether ETFs shed $138M — CoinTelegraph#8 — Tom Lee says ether ‘dwarfing other macro assets’ as Bitmine adds 15,112 ETH — The Block#9 — OKX and NYSE Owner ICE Plan 24/7 Tokenized Stock Trading Under SEC Exemption — Decrypt#10 — Cardano Price Forecast: ADA rally strengthens bullish breakout setup — FXStreet#11 — Cardano golden cross: the last one ended 42.4% lower — CryptoTicker#12 — China P2P stablecoin wallets grew 43x despite crypto restrictions: Chainalysis — CoinTelegraph#13 — Oil prices split as Brent tops $102, Murban hits $110 per barrel on Oct. 5, 2026 — Gulf News#14 — Oil Swings to Loss as Deep Saudi Price Cut Offsets Yemen Concern — Bloomberg#15 — Brent up 0.79% on Oct 5 after Houthis claim Aramco attacks — The Nation Thailand#16 — Is Iran charging a toll to allow oil traffic through Hormuz? — Al Jazeera#17 — Yemen government forces claim Bab Al Mandeb gains as Saudi coalition says 100 jets join Houthi offensive — The National#18 — Yemeni government forces say they have ‘secured’ Bab al-Mandab Strait — BBC World#19 — US withdraws B-1 bomber aircraft from UK’s Fairford base amid Iran fears — Al Jazeera#20–10-Year Treasury Yield Near 5.3%: Weak Jobs, ISM Services and the Week That Tests Stocks — The Vanderbilt Report#21 — Nasdaq Gains as Rising ISM Prices Split Wall Street Open — TS2#22 — Strive adds 2,000 bitcoin in biggest buy since June, closes in on MARA — The Block#23 — CFTC proposes new federal framework for leveraged retail crypto trading — The Block
Market Data
Asset Price 24h
──────────────────────────────────────
Bitcoin (BTC) $85,258 -0.01%
Ethereum (ETH) $2,696.27 -0.10%
Cardano (ADA) $0.2641 +6.32%
Solana (SOL) $119.44 -1.74%
BNB $787.18 -0.11%
XRP $1.49 -0.66%Fear & Greed: 70 — Greed (was 65 yesterday)
S&P 500: +0.50% · Nasdaq: +0.70% · DXY: 102.20 (-0.29%) · Gold: $4,161 (-0.27%)
(S&P, Nasdaq, DXY and CME gold are Monday intraday, ~12:15 ET, at data cutoff. Brent ~$101–103 range Monday.)
Chain of Thought is a daily crypto and macro market digest. Not financial advice.
Strategy Bought Its Own Paper. Retail Bought Cardano. was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.