Bitcoin has started October above $84,000 after gaining 6.39% in September. The early price action has been relatively stable, but several factors could create pressure as the month progresses.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, profit-taking is returning, and the October 31 Mt. Gox repayment deadline could add potential supply to the market. At the same time, whale deposits to exchanges have declined and on-chain risk remains moderate.
These mixed signals make the next few weeks important for Bitcoin’s price trend.
Bitcoin Has Held Up Better Than Its October History
Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been one of its weaker short-term periods, with an average decline of 0.66%.
This year, BTC has performed better. Bitcoin closed September at $83,574 and October 3 at $84,743. From the October 1 close to October 3, BTC declined only 0.14%.
By October 4, Bitcoin was trading near $85,132, around 1.86% above its September close.
However, holding above $84,000 does not remove the risks facing the market. If demand weakens, the same levels that currently act as support could become important areas to watch on the downside.
ETF Demand Is Losing Momentum
One of the clearest concerns is the slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF demand.
The 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow in almost a year. But inflows declined during the following five sessions, falling to $31.07 million on September 28.
On September 30, the funds recorded $148.69 million in net outflows, ending a nine-day inflow streak.
ETF flows turned positive again on October 1, with $102.67 million in net inflows. However, the overall pace remained much lower than the previous week.
The funds recorded just $51.25 million in net inflows across the four sessions from September 28 to October 1, compared with $2.39 billion during the previous week.
Trading activity has also declined. Daily trading volume across the 12 funds fell from $4.57 billion on September 21 to $1.97 billion on October 1.
If ETF demand continues to weaken, it could make it harder for Bitcoin to sustain an extended move higher.
On-Chain Risk Has Not Reached Extreme Levels
The on-chain picture is more balanced.
Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio is around 2.5. This is well above the 1.0 level historically associated with widespread capitulation but remains below the 10+ readings seen during periods of stronger profit-taking.
The 7-day and 30-day averages are also moving higher.
The Sell-side Risk Ratio is around 40.1 after falling sharply earlier in 2026. Its recent recovery indicates that realized profit-taking is returning as Bitcoin rises.
However, the metric remains below the levels historically associated with market overheating and major distribution.
This means the on-chain data is not currently showing a major warning signal. The concern is whether these indicators continue rising alongside price and eventually move toward historical risk zones.
Whales Are Providing Some Support
Whale activity provides a counterpoint to the weaker ETF data.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin whales ended a period of net deposits to exchanges in late August. The period lasted more than three months, roughly twice as long as any other similar period since 2023.
Since then, whale exchange flows have remained negative.
Lower exchange deposits can reduce immediate selling pressure if large holders continue to keep their BTC away from exchanges.
This is one reason the current market does not yet show a clear distribution pattern.
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Analysts Remain Bullish
Despite the potential risks, several analysts continue to expect higher Bitcoin prices.
Nansen’s CEO does not expect Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 again. His view is based on continued government spending, monetary expansion and Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply.
Raoul Pal also remains positive on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. He views BTC as an important monetary asset for the emerging digital and machine economy. He points to rising open interest and funding rates as signs that speculative activity is returning, while broader liquidity and institutional adoption could support further gains.
Michaël van de Poppe is focused on the $85,000 level. He believes a sustained move above that price could lead to stronger upward momentum, with $90,000 as a potential next target.
These views provide a bullish outlook, but they depend on Bitcoin maintaining demand and avoiding a significant increase in selling pressure.
Mt. Gox Could Add Supply Later This Month
Mt. Gox remains one of the biggest event risks for Bitcoin in October.
Arkham data shows that Mt. Gox-labeled wallets held around 34,387 BTC, worth approximately $2.88 billion.
The current court-approved deadline requires creditor repayments to be completed by October 31.
Another extension would keep the remaining Bitcoin outside the market. If distributions take place, some creditors could sell their BTC, potentially increasing short-term supply.
The previous deadline was also extended in October 2025, just four days before the scheduled cutoff.
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Holdings, Source: Arkham
October History Is Positive, But Not Guaranteed
Bitcoin’s historical October performance is generally strong.
From 2013 through 2025, Bitcoin recorded an average October return of 18.64%, with a median return of 12.73%.
The strongest October gains include 60.79% in 2013, 47.81% in 2017 and 39.93% in 2021.
However, Bitcoin also fell 12.95% in October 2014, 3.83% in 2018 and 3.69% in 2025.
The historical data therefore supports a positive seasonal trend but does not remove the risks facing the market.
What Could Show Up on the Bitcoin Chart?
Bitcoin enters October with a mixed setup.
The price is holding above $84,000, whale exchange deposits have declined and on-chain risk remains moderate. But ETF demand has weakened, profit-taking is increasing, and the Mt. Gox deadline could introduce additional supply.
For the bullish trend to continue, Bitcoin needs to maintain the 84,000–85,000 area and attract stronger demand.
A sustained move above $85,000 could support the next move toward $90,000, as some analysts expect. On the other hand, continued weakness in ETF flows or increased selling pressure could make the $84,000 area an important test.
For now, Bitcoin’s October trend is still intact. But the market has several problems to work through, and those risks could become visible on the price chart if demand begins to weaken.
Bitcoin Looks Strong in October, But These Problems Could Change the Trend was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.