The cross-border token is approaching the apex of a narrowing technical structure as accumulation continues on certain scales, and several analysts expect the volatility to resume and possibly expand soon.
While the direction is not guaranteed, the majority believe the upside potential is higher. This is somewhat in contrast to the recent growing FUD around the popular altcoin.
$1.53 Can Unlock the Next Leg Up
Ali Martinez highlighted a triangle formation that has continued to tighten as XRP moves closer to its apex. Interestingly, this comes despite the lack of major moves from whales in the past week or so. Recall that these large market participants went on a wild accumulation spree on several occasions in the past few months, but Martinez said they have remained on the sidelines lately, with no significant changes in their holdings.
This leaves the technical structure as the immediate factor to watch rather than fresh capital coming from whales. The analyst added that a close above $1.53 on the 4-hour chart could confirm a bullish breakout and open the door toward the next major target at $1.62.
Celal Kucuker shared a similar opinion, indicating that XRP has approached the tip of its triangle. However, his momentum indicators are mixed: MACD is recovering, but RSI is still below 50, meaning the asset has not yet entered what he calls a strong bullish zone. Nevertheless, Kucuker puts the probability of an upside breakout at around 65%-70%, compared with 30%-35% for a move south.
Bird also believes XRP has reached a “major decision point” and outlined a chart showing that the asset is currently testing the same resistance at around $1.51-$1.53.
We’re back at the major decision point for $XRP guys https://t.co/cNIk9AqwxH
— Bird (@Bird_XRPL) October 5, 2026
Certain Accumulation Continues
Although whales might not have been as active as they used to be during the August and September breakouts, CryptoQuant’s CW added an on-chain angle to the setup, showing that smaller investors have been accumulating heavily for seven consecutive days.
CW added that this phase has not yet finished, and the next meaningful price move could begin once it concludes. They also pointed to the strengthening MACD and EMA trends in recent tweets as evidence that bullish momentum is developing.
Separately, Dark Defender, a well-known XRP bull, highlighted a significantly more aggressive long-term scenario, which sees the token skyrocketing to $4.10 first, followed by $7.07, and then all the way up to $36.76. The analyst based his theory on the Elliott Wave pattern, suggesting that XRP has completed Wave 1 and is currently progressing through Wave 2.
Obviously, even the first, most modest target sounds a bit far-fetched right now, since XRP can’t really break out of the $1.51-$1.53 range. Nevertheless, the token has staged mind-blowing price rallies in the past, which leaves many fans hopeful for another similar run.
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