The Fed has raised rates to 3.75–4.00%. 🏦 It’s the first hike in more than three years, it was unanimous, and the dot plot points to one more hike this year.
The obvious trade was “hawkish Fed, so sell risk and gold”. 🪙 The market did something else. US stocks rallied the next day, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.7% and the S&P 500 up 1.1%. Gold slipped after the decision and now trades around $4,350, still below the $4,400 resistance. The first reaction was noise, and the real message came later. 🔄
Here is what is driving the market now:
📈 The 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.74%, a cycle high, and the 10-year is near 5%.
🛢️ Brent is around $102 after four straight sessions of losses. It is still high enough to keep inflation worries alive, and core inflation is above 3%.
💵 The Dollar Index sits near 100 and USD/JPY is around 157. 💴
🌍 Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and strikes between Ukraine and Russia keep geopolitical risk high.
🤝 The Trump–Xi summit on September 24 is the next big test. Preparatory trade talks have started, and many traders are waiting on the sidelines. ⏳
The takeaway 💡
✅ The first reaction shows the surprise. The second move shows the direction.
✅ Yields, oil and geopolitics often decide what happens after a rate decision.
✅ Before big political events, waiting is also a position.
Wait for the second move, not the first. 🎯 Trade with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/registration?utm_source=social&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=nordfx
NordFX: The First Move After a Central Bank Is Often the Easiest One to Misread 🧭 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.