Fundamental differences in this cycle, and how they will impact the remainder of this bull run.
The State of the Markets:
The harsh reality is that this cycle has once again proven that although the cycles may rhyme, they are not carbon copies. The institutional adoption via ETFs, political climate and mainstream economic struggles have all combined to shift the underlying structures, and we must now question many of the previous assumptions.
Funds Flow Dynamics:
In previous cycles we had come to expect a predictable flow of funds. New capital would enter the cryptosphere first via BTC, then trickle to ETH and blue chip altcoins looking for alpha, and finally settle in small and microcap coins as the retail pile in in search of life changing gains.
The new dynamic is very different, and though perhaps more obvious in hindsight, has not been discussed at large. There are effectively now two separate ecosystems in crypto; institutional coins and retail coins. Institutional has access almost exclusively to BTC and ETH via the spot ETFs. To date, funds have sought out predominantly BTC and pushed the price almost 40% above previous ATHs. At some point, capital will likely begin to search for more alpha as the BTC space becomes crowded, and institutions will have very few options apart from ETH ETFs. At that point, there will be a big rotation of capital to the ETH ETFs, and the much less liquid ETH market will respond very quickly (as it did briefly on initial approval of the ETH ETF, jumping by 15% in a day).
The rotation to ETH and subsequent price appreciation will trickle into blue chip Altcoins to an extent, as crypto native firms with actual ETH holdings begin to front run an alt-season. I believe the ETH rotation is getting very close, but only time will tell.
Which brings me to the second ecosystem: retail coins …
Retail are Skipping BTC and ETH altogether:
For the first time in crypto history, retail are not dipping their toes in BTC and ETH and then migrating those gains further out the risk curve. They have realized that, from a “life-changing gains standpoint”, they are too late to the BTC and ETH game and must go way out the risk curve.
Folks are struggling in the real world, outside our little crypto bubble. They are getting hammered by inflation, outrageous taxes, stagnant job markets, suffocating costs of living. Most don’t have wealth to invest and save for retirement. They don’t care about Bitcoin and ETH. Instead, they are bypassing the rich folk coins (BTC, ETH, blue chips), downloading Phantom wallet, and diving face first into the unknown depths of meme shenanigans in search of lottery tickets for life changing wealth. Most will find only ruin, and eventually leave the crypto sphere for good.
The funds flow in this retail ecosystem has now been completely upended. Funds flow straight to memes, do not pass go, do not think about tech or utility at all. Gains are concentrated in a small minority of veterans that are just waiting at the gates like trinket salesmen at a hot tourist spot, ready to drain the new retail wallets as soon as they get there with visions of grandeur and riches (“look at this $50 to $1M wallet, you can do it too!”)
There is no newly created wealth in the altcoin markets looking for a new home … yet. It is PvP wealth re-allocation, from the meme retailers to the professional grifters taking them for all they are worth. Memes may have started as fair-launch “stick it to the man” altcoins, but have shifted to rigged launches with scammers and grifters sniping large portions of the token allocations at launch, rugs, and worse. The game is timed, and only so much capital can be leeched before it searches for another home.
It is my expectation that the meme casino we have seen is cannibalistic, and will soon devour itself. The larger memes will survive, and likely do very well. The rest will sink into obscurity along with the wealth of the majority of the retailers who got sucked in. Even in the best case scenario, it is one giant casino game of hot potato, where 95% + will end up losing.
The effect on non-tradefi funds flow is that the majors like SOL, AVAX, etc will need to pull in big VC, institutional and retail capital to ignite the altcoin run. This will likely follow the spillover from BTC to ETH, as the institutional and retail whales begin searching out the risk curve for a home for their new gains. Whale wallets have recently begun net selling of BTC 👀
GameFi has a nasty Virus:
In the initial gamefi run in the early parts of this cycle, the Gaming projects absolutely nuked themselves by launching vapourware after vapourware projects with terrible games, high FDVs, useless tokenomics and a myriad of other issues.
Now the real projects that have been building for years and are preparing to launch have an epic uphill battle to overcome the stigma, and to gain traction for their projects. That said, there are some real solid projects out there in the GameFi space that have all the ingredients for a huge hit. Once we get one big success, the rest of the GameFi ecosystem will have a huge speculative run.
Launchpads are dead … but the survivors will come out very strong.
VCs destroyed this meta by trying to leech maximum value from retail investors. Long vesting, high fully diluted value (FDV), extractive CEX listings with vulture market makers … the VC’s sunk their own boat to steal the fish.
A new meta is growing, and it could very well see a large resurgence in top launchpad projects. The low FDV, high unlock, no-CEX listings have performed markedly better than the extortionate VC meta of old. The key will be investing in the top tier launchpads, as the access to these deals will be far more exclusive and difficult to source.
One thing is for sure, it only takes a couple 50X or 100X launches to have retail absolutely scrambling for launchpad tokens and access.
95% of tokens are unnecessary, and useless.
Lets be honest, the main utility of tokens in crypto is speculation. 5% of them have real utility, and offer part ownership in revolutionary technologies and platforms. The rest are PvP speculation tokens that will invariably crash to zero. In the meantime, the right ones can make huge returns.
Dilution has made the Crypto Market Crowded and more difficult to navigate
In 2020, we had roughly 10,000 tokens at the peak of the market. Now we have that many created daily. Most are complete garbage, but they create a cacophony that drowns out the projects with real value and innovation. Make no mistake, those revolutionary projects are out there, but they are orders of magnitude harder to find, particularly for the regular retailer who has a very surface level understanding.
This is a large part of the reason newbies gravitate towards meme coins. They need zero understanding to comprehend a cute dog with a hat whose feature is quite literally that it has no utility. That and the lottery ticket casino.
Influencers, generally, leech far more value than they contribute
The crypto influencoor has deteriorated to such an extent that only a small minority continue to add value and alpha, where most have resorted to absurd clickbait thumbnails, shameless shilling and promoting, and downright scammery.
The meme coin meta has made influencers much less relevant for real data, and they have pivoted to unabashed shilling and pump and dumps. Take care to parse the good info from the bad, and never blindly follow these false shepherds.
MircroStrategy may well be the GBTC of this cycle
The premium to NAV on $MSTR is going bonkers. It is a sign of outsized tradeFi demand for BTC. It is entirely possible that as we near the end of the cycle, the premium begins to reverse and eventually turn into a discount. Watch for this metric as a sign of the cycle reversal, and despite all the inevitable claims of the a supercycle in the midst of the peak bull, there will absolutely be a giant bear market drop at some point.
For those that can see the signs, this may eventually be an excellent way to play the the market to the downside. But not any time soon.
Altcoin season is dead, ETH is dead … The ultimate contrarian indicators.
There is a crescendo of calls for the death of ETH, that Altcoins will never have the much anticipated altcoin season. It will come, and this is the perfect contrarian indicator.
I am holding strong on both my ETH positions (despite the massive underperformance) and my long held Altcoin positions (which have had very mixed results; some excellent, some terrible). Just as everyone stares at Bitcoin price runs and abandons their positions in Alts an ETH to smash buy BTC at the local top, only then will alts and ETH finally begin their run.
ETF Options will add huge volatility … on the way up AND the way down.
Almost $2B in notional options value traded on day 1 of $IBIT only, heavily weighted to call options (bets on the price of BTC going up). When those call options are written, they are generally hedged by the sellers by buying the underlying ETFs … which pushes price up. We are seeing that play out in style, and will likely continue over the coming months.
Regulation clarity is a huge boon and removes all friction at the access gates to crypto.
In past cycles, capital looking to enter the cryptosphere had significant friction at every turn … on ramps, off ramps, regulatory uncertainty, pending legal cases, over-caution by exchanges and crypto entities. That is now shifting 180 degrees. There is easy access for tradeFi via the spot ETFs and clarity in regulation that opens the flood gates not only to capital looking for crypto itself, but for investment capital looking to be deployed in crypto companies and startups.
The chips have all fallen into place …
No one could have predicted how many bullish factors have aligned with absolutely perfect timing. This bull run has all the ingredients to be the most explosive one to date. Altcoins and ETH included. Patience!
BTC and ETH spot ETFs approvedTrump huge pivot TO crypto and positive crypto regulationTrump full sweep election victoryGary Gensler resignsVarious sovereign entities acquiring BTCChina “unbans” crypto … againFavourable legal precedents set in Coinbase and XRP casesRecord amounts of Stablecoins printedRecord low BTC and ETH exchange balancesMicroStrategy buying $42B of BTC over the next 3 yearsBTC ETF’s largest in ETF history … orders of magnitude larger that Gold.
Infrastructure improvements magnify the potential of this bull run
Exchanges, wallets, defi protocols and tradeFi access have all improved dramatically. UI and UX are significantly simpler and easier to use, and continue to improve drastically with the friendlier regulatory environment. These improvements remove a great deal of friction, and will accommodate far more retail capital once we have bull run liftoff.
Conclusion:
The unfolding of this crypto bull run has been anything but predictable. And yet the one thing that remains easy to predict in every cycle are retail’s inevitable emotional reactions. The newest overvalued thing is amazing, buy it! The old underpriced thing is boring, sell it! Alts are dead, buy Bitcoin! ETH is dead, sell it!
It never fails that those calls are perfect Cramer-like contrarian indicators. 95% of retailers will lose in the end. Make sure you are among the 5%, be contrarian.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)
I release regular altcoin and crypto updates, subscribe for more info and to keep up to date!
Social Media:
Twitter (X) https://twitter.com/fourthesauriPhaver App: https://phaver.app.link/fourthesauri
Referral Bonuses/Codes:
✅Cross Chain Swaps & Bridge: RocketX Exchange
Best rates by far, bridge/swap ANY chain, swap/bridge in a single transaction, CEX & DEX, no KYC. 20% OFF Fees with code
✅Browser Wallet: (Metamask alternative): Rabby Wallet
Excellent security measures, very compatible, all EVM chains, built-in swaps and approvals checker.
✅Portfolio Tracker and Toolset: Nexus
Free version or premium version, best token & NFT tracker on the market, launchpad allocations, private sale tracker, research tools, etc.
✅All-in-One Portfolio Tracker and Wallet: Zerion
Free and premium version, excellent portfolio tracker with mobile and desktop versions. All-in-one with swaps, defi, bridges, etc.
Disclosures:
I own or am accumulating the above mentioned tokens/investments.Not financial advice.I rebalance my portfolio occasionally and the above may change from time to time.
The State of the Crypto Markets, and the unique future of this Bull Run was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.