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𝗖𝗣𝗜/𝗣𝗣𝗜 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫: 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮?

📊 The Fed’s story faces its first real test this week. US July CPI drops Wednesday, August 12, PPI follows Thursday, August 13.

Two weeks ago, Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, a split 9–3 vote with three members wanting a hike. Their message: inflation is still too high, and rates are staying higher for longer.

🛢️ Since then, the picture has flipped twice. Oil driven by the Iran conflict and tariff pressures pushed September hike odds as high as 82%. Then a shockingly weak July jobs report, with payrolls actually shrinking, cut those odds back down fast. Markets are on edge, and this print decides which story wins.

💰 Gold is caught in the crossfire, holding near $4,300 an ounce, still off January’s record above $5,500 but climbing again as traders hedge both sticky prices and Fed confusion.

⚡ Hot data revives hike bets, lifts the dollar and yields, and pressures gold. Soft data hands the doves their case back. Either way, FX, gold and equities are set for a wild ride.

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𝗖𝗣𝗜/𝗣𝗣𝗜 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗙𝗫: 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗴𝗲… was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.