Bitcoin
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Last 7d price movement
is on a tear. Earlier today, as the world digested a Donald Trump presidency, the world’s most valuable coin eased past $75,000, rallying to nearly $76,000. Though the BTC price has since cooled off, the coin is currently trading above March 2024 highs, which is a huge validation that the uptrend remains.
Historically, the bull mania of “uptober” tends to spill over to November and December.
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If this is the case, there could be more room for bulls to push harder, even breaking $76,000 on their way to six digits—$100,000.
And sentiment charts support this bullish outlook: Over 70% of votes think Bitcoin will continue rallying.
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Bitcoin May Not Rally Hard As People Think
While everyone is aiming for the one, one analyst on X is cautious about the extent of the bull run.
Admittedly, the analyst thinks BTC will grow.
However, it is doubtful whether it will register the 300% surge seen in the 2016 to 2017 rally.
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According to his projection, Bitcoin’s best gain in this cycle is around 30% to 40%.
Therefore, to prepare for any eventualities, and considering that Bitcoin holders tend to “change hands” every two years based on the Realized Cap and the UTXO Age Bands, this could be the best time to exit longs—but not all at once.
The Realized Cap measures the value of all BTC based on the last time they moved. On the other hand, the UTXO Age Bands metric assesses the coin’s distribution over time.
Ownership Shift?
As historical data shows, ownership shifts markedly every two years, especially when prices turn from bearish to bullish.
In 2022, prices sunk to as low as 415,800 before racing to $73,000 and $75,000.
Since it has been two years, BTC holders will likely sell, booking profits.
The best approach is to gradually sell as the coin churns higher, printing fresh all-time highs.
By selling on every advance, traders will protect their baselines while concurrently maintaining their tempered expectations of massive returns.
From the daily chart, the local support is at a November 5 high of nearly $70,500.
(BTCUSDT)
Technically, even if bears force prices lower, peeling back impressive gains of the last 18 hours, the uptrend remains, and buyers can buy the dips.
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Possible Drivers In Q4 2024 and Beyond
Already, the demand is soaring, especially in the United States.
Parallel data shows that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index is back in positive territory after being negative.
The index is useful and gauges BTC demand in the United States versus the rest of the world.
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Whenever it shifts to green, more people in the United States rush to buy BTC, outpacing others who choose Binance, a popular global exchange.
Combining the two and factoring in a Donald Trump presidency, Bitcoin may rally.
For now, how far Bitcoin’s price spikes, and is $100,000 inevitable? Only time will tell.
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