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Introduction
The upcoming November 2024 general election in the United States is approaching, with election data and recent campaign reports highlighting the high stakes and importance of this year’s vote, which will eventually become one of the most consequential in recent memory. Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, goes head-to-head against former President Donald Trump. There is also an independent candidate, and that is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It indicates how current polls have changed, some critical campaign issues, and some of those battleground states that might easily determine this election.
Overview of Potential Contenders
The 2024 race is generally a battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, since each candidate presents fundamentally different visions about what America’s future ought to be.
Harris will campaign for the continuation of policies the Biden administration pursues with respect to social services, healthcare, and environmental protection in hopes of attracting that left-leaning electorate. Meanwhile, Trump’s platform has focused on economic revival, reduced regulation, and conservative policies with respect to most social issues.
Lastly, there is the new, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaign that heralds something different, having rested its entire appeal to disappointed voters in the two old parties on issues related to personal freedoms and alternative ways of making policy for all this broad cross-section of concerned voters who want things other than as they have them now.
Latest Polling Data
As of late October 2024, national metrics, as well as state-by-state battleground polling, indicate that Harris and Trump are running neck-and-neck. For example, a number of national metrics and several states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan even show them as tied. Trump has a great stronghold in the Midwest as well as in the South, while Harris leads on the West Coast and in the Northeast. Independent candidate Kennedy has drawn some attention, especially among the undecided and independent voters. His support in key states, however, is not much.
While Kennedy’s support is unlikely to challenge the major candidates, according to analysts, he will likely influence the outcome of close swing states. Independent support and those who feel that both parties have disappointed them may be the game changers, especially if Harris and Trump are deadlocked in a state.
Voter Priorities and Key Issues
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Economic issues remain at the center of voters’ concerns, although inflation, job growth, and economic stability dominated the concerns in the primary election. Harris’s push for the Biden administration to continue its job creation/infrastructure push is countered by a recent slowdown that makes her promise of a solid recovery more difficult to express. Trump has used grievances on the economic front. He has spoken about lowering taxes and rolling back various forms of deregulation that are seen as being undertaken in a less business friendly climate.
Others include access to healthcare, social programs, and environmental policies. Harris’s campaign based much of her platform around the expansion of the social safety net as a way to help mitigate financial pressures, especially healthcare. However, her approach to aggressively pushing climate initiatives has caused mixed reactions, especially to states that are energy reliant, such as Texas and West Virginia.
Campaign Strategies and Swing States
The nature of the electorate has also been understood by both candidate campaigns in varied strategies employed in the critical battleground states. Harris has spent much on urban centers, assuming she will excite the established Democratic strongholds of youth, women, and minority groups. Trump has tried to activate rural and suburban voters through patriotism, law and order, and security issues in the economy.
Both candidates continue to ratchet up the play in swing states: Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, as well as in North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada. Harris would go after suburban families as well as more middle-income households with more messages over healthcare and education, where Trump continues working-class appeals, focusing mainly on the economic growth and reductions of regulations, especially as relates to manufacturing and energy-producing regions, among others.
The Role of Early and Mail-In Voting
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Record-breaking early and mail-in votes are anticipated in 2024, with more than half the voters planning to cast their votes early. The trends about early voting traditionally leaned toward the Democratic camp. To Harris’s advantage, a strategy shift that was apparent in 2020, where Trump encouraged the same and was going to reverse earlier gains from early turnout, is now employed against this potential advantage by early votes.
The early voting has already started in some states, and one can promise to be quite active, especially in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Results from the early votes can help detail the pattern of turnout and possibly influence the final push into election day by both campaigns.
Third-Party and Independent Candidates’ Influence
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy has complicated this extremely tight race. Even though polls suggest that he cannot win any state outright, his candidacy may yet affect the final outcome of some key battlegrounds, potentially siphoning off some votes that could otherwise determine the balance between Harris and Trump.
This effect especially can be seen in such states as Florida and Wisconsin, where Kennedy has dedicated campaigning efforts and, more importantly, where there can be a very competitive outcome and even a low percent of votes could become pivotal.
CONCLUSION: A Super-Tight Election Under Conditions of Very High Uncertainty
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The election of 2024 promises to be among the closest-watched-and most fiercely contested presidential races ever held in the United States. Two distinctly different paths that this nation can take into its future are contrasted vividly by the visions enunciated so starkly, above all on issues-economic, environmental, and social-by Harris and Trump. It is, however, when weighing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy against the confounded landscape that takes unpredictability yet another step beyond indicating that many voters are now searching for alternatives to the traditional two-party system.
The battleground states will be the decisive area as early voting continues and Election Day draws near. Both sides are trying their best in final mobilization efforts targeting independents and swing voters whose choices may decide which way the United States is going to take.
“U.S election 2024: Latest Polls, Key Topics, and Prediction” was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.