XRP has followed the broader rebound in crypto markets as geopolitical conditions appear to be easing. With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility—however uncertain—of progress toward an end to the Iran–US conflict, risk appetite has improved.
In that environment, XRP has surged and briefly pushed toward the $1.51 level on Friday for the first time in almost a month, alongside a set of catalysts that could determine whether the rally gains real momentum—or quickly unwinds.
The Timeline That Could Make Or Break XRP
In his latest report, market expert Sam Daodu points out that while the near-term outlook for XRP looks promising, it hinges on three dates coming up in the next two weeks.
The first factor is tied to the macro story itself: a possible extension of the Iran–US ceasefire. The closest deadline is April 22, when the Iran ceasefire is set to expire.
Daodu links the timing of this expiry directly to market risk, arguing that if tensions return and the conflict resumes, the broader crypto market would probably fall again—dragging XRP down with it.
The second major date is tied to US regulation, and it is arguably the bigger one for XRP’s longer-term recovery: the CLARITY Act markup that the Senate Banking Committee is targeting for late April.
If the CLARITY Act is delayed beyond May, he suggests the bill would likely be shelved until 2027. In that scenario, the expert asserts XRP would lose its biggest remaining catalyst for 2026.
The third key date is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28–29. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%.
Daodu argues that, on its own, the meeting may not move XRP much. The bigger issue is what happens if geopolitical risk and regulatory momentum both disappoint at the same time.
If the Iran ceasefire collapses and the CLARITY Act stalls, a hawkish surprise from the Fed would likely worsen conditions. In other words, it is not just each event standing alone; it is the interaction between them that could shape the next phase of the market.
Potential Outcomes For The Next Two Weeks
Against that backdrop, Daodu offers three price scenarios for XRP, framing them around what happens with the ceasefire, the CLARITY Act, and the broader market over roughly the next two weeks.
In his bullish case, XRP could move into a range of $1.50 to $1.90. That would depend on the Senate Banking Committee scheduling the CLARITY Act markup before the end of April and on the Iran ceasefire being extended beyond April 22.
Daodu believes XRP could aim for the 200-day moving average near $1.90 by May. Still, he cautions that reaching that point would require sustained ETF inflows and continued strength in Bitcoin (BTC).
In a base-case outlook, Daodu forecasts XRP trading between $1.35 and $1.50. This scenario assumes the ceasefire extends past April 22, but the CLARITY Act markup is pushed to May.
In the bearish scenario, Daodu sees the altcoin potentially falling into a range of $1.15 to $1.30. This would be triggered if the war resumes after April 22 and oil prices spike above $100 again, which would likely pressure the entire crypto market.
In that case, Daodu says a move back below $1.30 becomes more likely. If Bitcoin also breaks down below $70,000 at the same time, XRP could retest the $1.15 support area.
At the time of writing, the altcoin is trading at around $1.49, still recording major gains of 10% and 13% over the seven- and fourteen-day periods, respectively.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com