Despite a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices since last October, analysts at Bernstein argue that the current downturn does not resemble a traditional crypto bear market.
In a note to clients released on Monday, the firm described the pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” even as the asset has fallen about 44% from its all‑time highs in current trading.
Bernstein Defends Bitcoin’s Fundamentals
The analysis was led by Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, who said the recent sell‑off reflects a loss of confidence rather than deeper structural problems.
The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact and that the decline should not be mistaken for a systemic breakdown. Bernstein reaffirmed its long‑term outlook, maintaining a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
Bernstein noted that many of the “red flags” that have historically preceded major Bitcoin crashes are missing this time. The analyst asserts that there have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the crypto ecosystem.
Instead, the firm sees a market weighed down by negative sentiment, even as broader conditions appear unusually favorable. The analysts pointed to what they described as strong institutional support for Bitcoin.
This includes a pro‑Bitcoin US president, the continued expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), growing adoption by corporate treasuries, and sustained interest from large asset managers.
In Bernstein’s view, these factors clearly distinguish the current cycle from past downturns that were driven by excess risk and fragile market structures.
Holders And Miners Can Weather Long Downturn
The firm also addressed shifting narratives around technology trends. Bernstein noted that some investors now argue Bitcoin has become irrelevant as global attention turns toward artificial intelligence (AI).
The analysts dismissed that view, saying it reflects changing investor focus rather than a genuine threat to Bitcoin’s role. They added that fears around quantum computing have similarly been overstated, pointing out that such risks would affect all critical digital systems, not just Bitcoin.
The firm further downplayed fears of forced selling driven by corporate treasuries or miner capitulation. Bernstein said major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to withstand prolonged downturns.
Referencing comments from Strategy’s recent earnings call, the analysts noted that only an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years—would trigger a need for restructuring.
Miners, they added, are also better positioned than in past cycles. Many have diversified their revenue by reallocating power resources toward AI data center demand, reducing reliance on Bitcoin mining alone and easing pressure from production costs.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,627, having recorded losses of 20% and 22% over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com