Bitcoin has plunged almost 40% from its peak of $126,000. While it currently trades a little above $77,000, prices remain fragile, and investors are positioning for a deeper drawdown.
Amidst intense bearish sentiment, Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, said that widely circulating claims that BTC and the broader crypto market are “broken” represent a false narrative driven by temporary liquidity conditions rather than a failed cycle.
Bitcoin and SaaS
Pal said the dominant market story indicates the crypto cycle is over, and prices are collapsing due to factors such as exchange issues, institutional actions, or structural flaws. But he described this view as an “alluring narrative trap” which has been reinforced by continued daily price declines. Analysis showed that the UBS SaaS Index and Bitcoin have followed nearly identical price patterns, which essentially indicates a common underlying factor rather than asset-specific problems.
According to Pal, that factor is US liquidity, which has been constrained as a result of several technical and fiscal factors. He pointed to the completion of the US Reverse Repo drain in 2024, followed by Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuilds in July and August that lacked an offsetting liquidity injection, which ended up resulting in a liquidity withdrawal.
Pal stated this liquidity shortage has also contributed to weak ISM readings. While Global Total Liquidity typically has the strongest long-term correlation with Bitcoin and US equities, he argued that US Total Liquidity is currently more influential because the US is the primary source of global liquidity. The GMI founder added that global liquidity has led US liquidity this cycle and is beginning to turn higher, which is expected to feed through to US liquidity and economic indicators.
Bitcoin and SaaS have been particularly affected because they are among the longest-duration assets and therefore most sensitive to liquidity conditions. The rally in gold absorbed marginal liquidity that might otherwise have flowed into riskier assets such as Bitcoin and SaaS, leaving insufficient liquidity to support all asset classes at the same time, he said.
The current US government shutdown has intensified the liquidity drain, as the Treasury did not draw down the TGA after the previous shutdown and instead added to it. He called the resulting environment a temporary “air pocket,” which has caused severe price pressure.
However, Pal said signs indicate the shutdown could be resolved soon, and characterized it as the final major liquidity obstacle. He reiterated that additional liquidity factors, such as adjustments to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR), partial TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts, remain ahead.
Hawkish Fed Fears
Some market commentators have hinted that expectations of a more cautious pace of rate cuts under incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh have also weighed on markets. But Pal rejected claims that Warsh represents a hawkish policy stance, and instead called the narrative incorrect and rooted in outdated comments. He believes Warsh’s approach aligns with policies favoring rate cuts and economic expansion, while maintaining balance sheet stability due to reserve constraints.
Despite the recent turmoil in the market, Pal said that he remains strongly bullish on 2026.
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