NOT yet triggered, but get ready . . .
Photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash
Let’s first check the important changes have occurred since my last writing.
I am writing to you shortly before the opening of New York markets on January 14, 2026. Most notably, prior to yesterday, BTC had been mostly contained in a tight range between US$84,000 and US$94,000 since November 18, 2025.
I had said on December 25, 2025 that the surest bet was that volatility (price movement) will increase. Now that is starting to happen, as the high yesterday exceeded $96,000, and the close was above $95,000, for the first time since November 18, 2025, which constituted a modest breakout from that nearly two month consolidation range, notably on significantly increasing volume.
Why now? In addition to the valid and increasingly important longer term increases in major institutional adoption, there are a few near term developments which likely play a role in this particular timing:
As I had previously reported regarding a recent bout of BTC network disharmony:
But in the meanwhile, this current spate of disharmony (for those in the know of such small but important details), injects a bit of additional uncertainty into the picture, which as we discussed above, is universally hated by investors, some of whom may be responding by awaiting further clarity on this before resuming their regular magnitude of BTC purchasing.
Just a few days ago, that situation was effectively neutralized (for the time being) by the core developers finally responding appropriately to network dissension, by withdrawing the controversial version 30 of the BTC network software, just as so many network participants had been increasingly strongly suggesting.
2. Regarding the pending momentous ruling from the high court on the current use of tariffs, I had said:
If this high court could ever get one big decision right (meaning within the bounds of the Constitution and applicable prior binding legal precedent), by early to mid 2026, it may be able to effectively stop the “gummint” from shooting itself and the rest of the world in the face using its current form of whiplash tariffs insanity.
Such a ruling would be virtually certain to spark an immediate and enormous market rally of epic proportions.
Now some highly placed in congress are, for some unspoken reasons, strongly suggesting that the high court’s ruling on tariffs is likely to come out much sooner than later.
Those two developments may have been enough to get the price above $95,000.
However, to be more likely to be sustained and built upon for further increases, we will need to see the buy signal being actually triggered by a closing price above $96,250.
We must be prepared to take immediate action to deploy at least some portion of our remaining available cash when BTC closes above $96,250, because that could very well signal the last opportunity to buy at any prices below $100,000.
Please bear in mind that some such signals are false or at least premature. In this case, I would feel much more confident in buy signals generated in the fourth quarter of this year, but every signal has the real potential to be the opportunity which we cannot afford to miss. So to balance the importance of taking action, against concerns about the odds of that action actually proving be timely, we can use our discretion to adjust the percentage of our available cash to deploy.
Any percentage between 20% to 80% could be reasonably justified. Very often when in doubt, 50% can be viewed as the most reasonable amount.
In attempting to set that percentage to our individual confidence and comfort, one tool that I will be using is to watch the most leveraged (and hence most risky) instruments which trade at the highest volume. Because most typically, in a true bull market (as opposed to a small head fake), the most leveraged instruments most strongly race ahead to lead the way. That is why I will be closely watching what I view to be the most likely leader of this asset class, MSTR.
If MSTR begins to consistently gain at percentages which are significantly higher than the gains being made by BTC, then the pending BTC buy signal (when triggered), will be far more likely to lead to sustained gains which continue to go higher for longer.
When the buy signal becomes triggered, I will write to alert/confirm. But I hope that you will be prepared to use these thoughts to take the immediate action that you deem to be most appropriate considering this context.
Let’s continue to be prepared to buy lower at areas of anticipated support, any one of which may prove to be strong enough to form the bottom and turn the market back to rallying higher. Or, if any one or more of the areas of support are never reached prior to a new buy signal being generated, then strongly consider using at least 20% (or up to as much as 80%) of your remaining cash (or other short term assets) to buy higher when next new buy signal is eventually formed and triggered.
Here are some re-calibrated allocations that I will be planning to deploy near the anticipated areas of support, as follows:
I will place/maintain Good Till Canceled (GTC) orders to add holdings near levels of anticipated major support (any one of which may prove to be strong enough to stop and reverse the decline), as follows:
25% of remaining cash near the $75,000 level;
25% of remaining cash near the $50,000 level;
25% of remaining cash near the $25,000 level; with the remaining
25% (or up to 80%) of ALL cash remaining at the time of the next buy signal.
All of the same thinking applies to the BTC spot ETF’s, but only as adjusted to their equivalent prices.
This is not the time for pussy-footing around and believing any mere words coming from any sweet talking tooth-fairies, or hoping that pigs will fly.
Rather, we must prepare to act rationally by applying sound portfolio management principles and bearing firmly in mind that “Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance”.
Only fidelity to truth, honor and justice can set us free!!!
And the most well-advised economic decision that we can hope to make during the anticipated difficulties remains to continue through thick and thin to be this:
HODL (Hold On For Dear Life) to the majority of your BTC.
Best wishes!!!
Disclaimers: The views in this article are the author’s personal views. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with their advisor. The information provided in this article has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, crypto currencies and money market funds involves the risk of loss. Their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated in the future.
Affiliate Link Disclosure: You may assume all links in this article are affiliate links. If you purchase any product or service through the link, I may be compensated at no extra cost to you.
BTC Buy Signal Pending was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.