Intelligence-linked estimates suggest Venezuela may control over 600,000 BTC, raising speculation about its potential impact on a future U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Market speculation around sovereign Bitcoin holdings intensified this week following renewed claims that Venezuela’s alleged Bitcoin and Tether reserves could Intelligence-linked estimates suggest Venezuela may control over 600,000 BTC, raising speculation about its potential impact on a future U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.be absorbed into a future U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). If confirmed, such a move would significantly reshape global Bitcoin ownership rankings and bring U.S. state-linked holdings close to the symbolic one-million-BTC mark.
Venezuela’s Shadow Bitcoin Accumulation Since 2018
According to intelligence-linked estimates circulating in crypto research circles, Venezuela may have quietly accumulated more than 600,000 BTC over several years as part of its efforts to bypass U.S. sanctions imposed in the late 2010s under President Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
The accumulation reportedly began around 2018, coinciding with Venezuela’s liquidation of gold reserves from the Orinoco Mining Arc. Proceeds from gold swaps, oil settlements, and mining-related seizures were allegedly converted into Bitcoin and USDT, forming a parallel financial system designed to operate outside traditional banking rails.
Estimates place the total value of Venezuela’s crypto-linked holdings between $56 billion and $67 billion, depending on acquisition timing and conversion prices.
Gold Swaps and Early Bitcoin Purchases
Some intelligence estimates suggest that roughly $2 billion in gold proceeds were converted into Bitcoin between 2018 and 2020, at an average BTC price near $5,000. That alone would imply purchases of around 400,000 BTC during Bitcoin’s early institutional era.
At current prices near $90,000, that tranche would be valued at roughly $36 billion, making it one of the most profitable sovereign-scale Bitcoin accumulations ever recorded — if verified.
Additional gold swap activity between 2018 and 2020 is estimated to represent $45–$50 billion in value today, forming the backbone of Venezuela’s alleged Bitcoin position.
Oil Settlements, USDT, and Continued Crypto Exposure
After the collapse of Venezuela’s state-backed Petro experiment, oil exports between 2023 and 2025 were reportedly settled using Tether (USDT). Portions of those proceeds were later converted into Bitcoin, according to intelligence-linked assessments.
Oil-related crypto activity is estimated to contribute an additional $10–$15 billion to the country’s total crypto exposure, reinforcing claims that Venezuela has relied heavily on digital assets to sustain trade under sanctions pressure.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Implications for the U.S.
Market analyst MartyParty highlighted that combining Venezuela-linked holdings with existing U.S. government Bitcoin could push a future Strategic Bitcoin Reserve close to one million BTC.
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Market observers have increasingly speculated that Venezuela’s seized or recovered crypto assets could eventually be folded into a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, should legal or geopolitical developments allow such transfers.
With the U.S. government currently estimated to hold around 328,000 BTC, the addition of 600,000–660,000 BTC would bring total holdings to approximately 928,000–988,000 BTC — remarkably close to the 1 million BTC target outlined in early Senate Strategic Bitcoin Reserve markups.
Such a scenario would dramatically alter sovereign Bitcoin rankings and reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a geopolitical reserve asset rather than merely a speculative instrument.
How Venezuela Would Rank Among Global Bitcoin Holders
If the estimates are accurate, Venezuela would rank among the largest Bitcoin holders globally, rivaling or exceeding major institutional players:
Satoshi Nakamoto: ~1.1 million BTC (estimated)BlackRock (IBIT): ~770,000 BTCStrategy: ~672,000 BTCVenezuela (estimated): 600,000+ BTCU.S. Government (current): ~328,000 BTC
These figures highlight how state actors — both adversarial and allied — are quietly shaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics.
Bitcoin Market Context
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $92,000, with a market capitalization above $1.8 trillion. Trading volume has surged alongside renewed attention on sovereign adoption, reserve strategies, and geopolitical use cases.
While none of the Venezuela-linked estimates have been officially confirmed, the narrative underscores a broader trend: Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as strategic infrastructure, not just a financial asset.
Whether Venezuela’s alleged holdings ever formally surface — or become part of U.S. reserves — remains uncertain. What is clear is that Bitcoin’s role in global power dynamics continues to expand well beyond retail speculation.
Disclaimer
The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. All claims involving sovereign Bitcoin holdings are based on publicly available reports, estimates, and market commentary that may be subject to change or dispute. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and exercise caution before making any financial decisions.
Venezuela’s Alleged Bitcoin Stockpile Could Push U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Near 1 Million BTC was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.