Is the BRICS Revolution the End of the American Financial Empire?

Is the BRICS Revolution the End of the American Financial Empire?

Photo by Nik Shuliahin 💛💙 on Unsplash

Hey friend

Let me be honest with you

I have been writing this newsletter for three years now and I have seen a lot of this is the big one moments Most of them fizzled A few changed everything Last week on Christmas Eve of all days something landed in my inbox that made me put down my coffee and actually pay attention

The BRICS nations Brazil Russia India China South Africa and the extended family they have been quietly accumulating announced they are pumping one hundred billion dollars into their New Development Bank Not sometime in the future Not we are thinking about it They are doing it The papers are filed The capital is callable

Now I know what you are thinking BRICS again Did not we do this dance in 2014 Did not the New Development Bank turn out to be mostly talk and very little walk

You are not wrong to be skeptical I have been there too I remember when everyone was certain the petrodollar was dead and the yuan was going to rule the world Neither happened The dollar is still king for better or worse

But here is the thing that is keeping me up at night This time feels different The one hundred billion dollar number is big sure But it is not just the money It is the timing the context and the way this fits into everything else we have been watching unfold It is not a single event it is a data point in a very clear pattern

I want to walk you through this carefully Not because I have all the answers I do not and anyone who tells you they do is selling something but because I think this matters to you It matters to your portfolio your risk models and frankly your understanding of where the world is heading

So pour yourself something strong Get comfortable This is going to be a long one

Part One The Day The Music Changed

Part One The Day The Music Changed

I was on a video call with a friend in Sao Paulo when the news broke He is a Brazilian agronomist who exports soy to China basically the definition of a person whose life is shaped by these global financial machinations His wife sent him the Reuters alert and he laughed

What now he said Another development bank

I did not have a good answer But something nagged at me so I pulled up the full communique later that night My Portuguese is rusty but the English translation was crystal clear This was not a vague statement of intent This was a roadmap

Let me break down what actually happened because the mainstream coverage was as usual sanitized and simplified

On December 24th 2025 the BRICS summit concluded with a virtual meeting hosted out of Recife Brazil The official communique ran to 47 pages Most of it was bureaucratic filler the kind of language that makes journalists glaze over But tucked into Section 14 Subsection B was a sentence that should have been highlighted in blinking neon

Project lending may be disbursed in tokenized local currency bonds where domestic law permits

Let me translate that into plain English the BRICS bank is officially blessing the idea that instead of giving out loans in dollars they can hand out digital bonds denominated in yuan rupees rubles reals and rand These are not IOUs They are programmable financial instruments that can be settled on blockchain networks tracked in real time and potentially exchanged across borders without touching the traditional Western financial plumbing

That is not incremental That is not more of the same That is a rival financial operating system being rolled out with the kind of capital that makes people pay attention

Over the next 48 hours I watched the pieces fall into place

Beijing is central bank injected 350 billion yuan into the money market within three hours of the announcement Why To stabilize their currency so that any borrower drawing down a yuan denominated loan would not get killed by sudden FX volatility That is not a coincidence That is coordination

Moscow Exchange listed a futures product tracking a basket of BRICS currencies within 18 hours Trading volume hit 1.8 billion dollars on day one That trounced their flagship oil contract

Brazil is development bank filed paperwork for a six billion dollar tokenized bond to fund a fiber optic corridor through the Amazon Settlement would happen on a Real backed stablecoin issued on Polygon

And I noticed something interesting on chain about 120 million dollars in USDT migrated from Tron to Ethereum then got converted into USDC and DAI This was not retail activity These were sophisticated players repositioning before the weekend When you see that kind of movement on Christmas Day someone knows something

The world did not end on December 24th But the architecture of the next decade got poured that night

I want to address the skepticism head on because I share it

In 2014 when BRICS announced the NDB it was largely symbolic The bank had 50 billion dollars in initial capital peanuts compared to the World Bank is 300 plus billion dollar lending capacity Most of the projects were small and the lending rates were not competitive with Western institutions It was a gesture more than a revolution

So why should 2025 be any different

Here is my thinking and I want you to poke holes in it

The context has fundamentally changed

When BRICS first organized China was still in its peaceful rise phase Russia was still pretending it wanted to be part of the European order India was still hedging aggressively between East and West There was no unified vision because the members did not feel unified pressure

That is gone now

Russia has been cut off from Western capital for three years It is not trying to patch things together anymore it is building a parallel system China has spent the last five years systematically derisking its economy from dollar dependencies India is Modi government has made self reliance the centerpiece of its political identity Brazil and South Africa have their own grievances with Western financial institutions and the expanded BRICS membership now including Iran Egypt Ethiopia and the UAE adds raw materials strategic geography and additional liquidity to the mix

This is not a club anymore It is a counter establishment

And here is the second piece The one hundred billion dollars is not the whole story

The NDB now has callable capital of 250 billion dollars That means they can leverage that base into far more in syndicated loans and project financing Compare that to the World Bank is 300 billion dollar ceiling and you start to see the picture BRICS now commands resources on the same order of magnitude as the dominant Western institutions

But it is not just about size It is about speed and flexibility

The World Bank comes with conditions Human rights reviews Environmental assessments Governance requirements Transparency mandates that while noble can slow projects down for years The NDB is offering a different value proposition we will fund your port your power plant your highway and we will not lecture you about your domestic politics

For leaders in the Global South who feel lectured enough already that is incredibly attractive

And the third piece Technology

In 2014 the infrastructure for alternative finance did not exist at scale Cross border payments were stuck on SWIFT Settlement took days Counterparty risk was opaque Today we have real time blockchain settlement We have stablecoins We have smart contracts that can automate complex financial arrangements The BRICS nations are not ignoring this they are embracing it

That clause I mentioned earlier about tokenized local currency bonds That is not filler That is a strategic bet on digital infrastructure

I need to talk about the elephant in the room which is the United States dollar

If you have been in crypto for any length of time you have heard the prophecy a thousand times the dollar is dying Bitcoin is the future the whole system is going to collapse yadda yadda yadda I have been around long enough to remember when people genuinely thought the dollar would collapse by 2020 It did not

But here is what the data actually shows

In 2001 the dollar accounted for 73 percent of global foreign exchange reserves By 2015 that had fallen to 66 percent Today in Q3 2025 it is at 55.8 percent

That is not a collapse But it is not stability either It is a slow grinding erosion and the trajectory matters more than the absolute number

The 50 percent threshold is psychologically significant Once the dollar falls below half of global reserves it changes the narrative from the dollar is dominant to the dollar is one of several major currencies That changes how central banks think how sovereign wealth funds allocate how nations structure trade agreements

The BRICS announcement is not operating in a vacuum It is happening against a backdrop of a dollar that has been weakening for a quarter century of United States debt levels that make uncomfortable reading of Federal Reserve balance sheets that expanded massively in 2020 and have not fully contracted since

Does this mean the dollar is doomed tomorrow No The dollar is status as the world is reserve currency comes with enormous inertial advantages the deepest liquidity markets the most widely held sovereign bonds the untouchable position of United States Treasuries as the global benchmark asset Those do not vanish overnight

But the BRICS move is a structural challenge to that position It is saying we do not need you to finance our future We have our own bank our own currency basket our own rules

Alright I can hear you thinking That is all very interesting but what do I actually do about it

Let me be clear I am not a financial advisor I do not know your situation your risk tolerance your time horizon What I can do is share my own thought process and the adjustments I am making to my own positions Take what resonates discard what does not

First let us talk about Bitcoin

Bitcoin has traditionally had a negative correlation with the dollar index When the dollar weakens Bitcoin tends to strengthen and vice versa That made sense when the narrative was Bitcoin as digital gold dollar risk off asset But something interesting has been happening over the past few years That correlation has been weakening

From 2017 to 2021 the beta coefficient between Bitcoin and the DXY was around negative 0.42 fairly strong inverse relationship From 2022 to 2025 it has dropped to negative 0.17 Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from pure dollar dynamics

Why Because the market is getting more sophisticated Bitcoin is being priced against multiple narratives now inflation hedge monetary policy play emerging market reserve asset tail risk insurance technological adoption curve It is not just inverse dollar anymore

The BRICS development adds another layer If a multipolar world emerges where the dollar competes with a BRICS currency basket for reserve status Bitcoin is role as a non sovereign neutral settlement asset becomes potentially more valuable not less You can not sanction Bitcoin You can not freeze it It does not belong to any nation state

That is a thesis I have held for years and this news reinforces it not by making it obviously true but by making the scenario of a fracturing global financial system feel more plausible

Second the stablecoin landscape is about to get complicated

Right now USDT and USDC dominate the on chain stablecoin market accounting for roughly 92 percent of all fiat pegged tokens That is a reflection of dollar dominance But if the BRICS financial system grows demand will emerge for stablecoins pegged to other currencies

We are already seeing the early stages

China has been piloting an e CNY bridge with ConsenSys and the Blockchain Service Network
Brazil is development bank is推进 a Real backed stablecoin on Polygon
India is fintech ecosystem is reportedly developing a Digital Rupee EVM that could go live in Q1 2026

These are not going to replace USDT overnight But they do not need to They just need to capture a meaningful share of the growing BRICS intra bloc trade which is increasingly being settled outside Western systems

For traders this creates opportunities We are likely to see more cross currency arbitrage more AMM pools for non dollar pairs more complexity but also more alpha for those who can navigate it

For long term holders it is a reminder that concentration in dollar pegged assets carries geopolitical risk If you are 100 percent in USDC and the dollar is role diminishes over the next decade your purchasing power could be affected in ways that are not immediately obvious

Third infrastructure is the new oil

The one hundred billion dollar BRICS fund is not going into DeFi protocols or NFTs It is going into roads ports power plants and digital infrastructure But here is the thing that infrastructure is going to need blockchain layers for transparency tracking and settlement

Oracles are going to matter more than ever If you are financing a five billion dollar port in East Africa you need real time data feeds on cargo volumes customs clearances and payment flows Chainlink Pyth Band Protocol these are not just crypto jargon They are becoming critical infrastructure for the emerging multipolar economy

I am personally keeping an eye on projects that are positioning themselves to capture this institutional demand Not because I love big finance but because when one hundred billion dollars starts flowing the winners capture enormous value

Fourth hash rate is geography

Bitcoin mining has been slowly drifting eastward for years Cambridge data shows China back to 23 percent of global hash rate up from effectively zero after the 2021 crackdown Russia at 15 percent Kazakhstan at 11 percent Combined BRICS plus share is approaching 60 percent

This matters for two reasons

Security thesis A more geographically distributed hash rate makes Bitcoin more resilient to any single government is action But a hash rate concentrated in nations that are coordinating on alternative financial systems creates interesting dynamics

Energy and emissions If BRICS funded infrastructure includes data centers with dedicated power capacity for mining we are talking about potentially massive hash rate additions that are not driven by Western energy markets This could affect difficulty adjustment cycles mining profitability and the overall security budget

I do not have a clear conclusion here but I am watching it closely

Part Five Four Scenarios For The Next Five Years

I spent some time last weekend running scenarios with a friend who is professionally paid to think about tail risks We came up with four possible futures each with different implications for crypto

I want to share them with you because thinking in scenarios helps clarify your position regardless of which one actually transpires

Scenario A Chaotic Bipolar 25 percent probability

In this outcome the dollar holds on but loses significant ground The BRICS system grows enough to be a serious competitor but not dominant Geopolitical tensions remain high Capital controls expand on both sides

Bitcoin trades in a wide range 120000 dollars to 250000 dollars driven by flows between blocs Privacy coins gain usage as sanctions avoidance becomes mainstream Submarine swaps and lightning channels see adoption

Scenario B Fragmented Multipole 35 percent probability

This is our base case Multiple currency blocs coexist each with their own financial infrastructure No single system dominates Bitcoin and Ethereum function as neutral settlement layers that operate across blocs

Crypto sees sustained demand from cross border trade but regulation intensifies Compliance becomes a competitive advantage Projects that can navigate multiple regulatory regimes do best

Scenario C Hegemonic Stubborn 30 percent probability

The dollar retains dominance Western institutions push back hard on BRICS expansion and capital controls limit the alternative system is growth Crypto sees renewed pressure from Western regulators focused on national security risks

Bitcoin trades in a range 55000 dollars to 110000 dollars Compliance focused Layer 1s and real world asset projects do best Privacy oriented protocols face headwinds

Scenario D Cooperative Reset 10 percent probability

A surprising turn toward multilateral cooperation The IMF or World Bank gets reformed a new global digital currency framework emerges and BRICS integration happens through existing institutions rather than in opposition to them

Crypto markets stabilize but see less speculative frenzy Institutional adoption focuses on efficiency plays rather than tail risk hedging

The common thread Uncertainty is the only certainty In every scenario except the most dollar favorable annual crypto volatility remains elevated Tail hedging is not optional it is structural

Part Six What Is Actually Happening On Chain

Let me ground us in some data because I know some of you are skeptical of the macro storytelling

Here is what I have been tracking

Stablecoin flows In the 72 hours following the BRICS announcement we saw about 120 million dollars in USDT migrate from Tron to Ethereum then convert to USDC and DAI This is significant because it is not retail activity retail does not move that much in that timeframe during a holiday weekend These are sophisticated players repositioning

Cross chain activity Bridging activity between Ethereum and alternative chains like Polygon zkSync and Base picked up noticeably People were moving assets around possibly preparing for new listings or liquidity provision opportunities

Whale behavior Several wallets associated with known institutional players increased their Bitcoin holdings by 5 to 10 percent in the week following the announcement No massive accumulation but a clear signal of interest

BRICS currency pairs On chain volume for CNY INR and RUB pairs against stablecoins jumped 40 percent week over week This is early stage activity but the trend is notable

Oracle volume Chainlink reported a 25 percent increase in data feed requests from institutional clients in the 48 hours after the announcement These are the kind of boring metrics that do not make headlines but indicate real infrastructure build out

I am not telling you to go all in or sell everything I am telling you to pay attention to what the smart money is doing not what it is saying

Part Seven The Human Factor

I have been writing about this stuff for years and one thing I have learned is that the human element matters more than any model

Let me share something personal

My father is a retired engineer who worked for a multinational corporation his whole career He lived through the Bretton Woods era the oil shocks the dot com bubble the 2008 crisis When I try to explain Bitcoin to him he listens politely and then asks who is behind it

It is a fair question There is no Fed no Treasury no central bank For his generation that was a feature of money not a bug Money needed a guarantor The state was the guarantor

My generation and especially the generation that came of age after 2008 sees it differently We watched the state bail out the banks while ordinary people lost their homes We watched quantitative easing inflate asset prices while wages stagnated We saw the system work for the connected and fail for everyone else

That is the psychological foundation of crypto Not just the technology but the mistrust of centralized authority

The BRICS development resonates with that sentiment even though it is coming from a very different direction It is saying to the Global South the Western system does not work for you Build your own

Whether you believe that project will succeed or fail the mere attempt matters It normalizes the idea that the current order is not inevitable It creates space for alternatives

And for those of us who believe that truly decentralized permissionless money and financial infrastructure is the answer that is a world with more room for our ideas to compete

Part Eight Where Do We Go From Here

I want to end with some concrete thoughts not predictions but orientations

Stay diversified across narratives The Bitcoin versus USD framing is too simple In a multipolar world your portfolio needs to account for multiple competing currency regimes different regulatory environments and varied liquidity conditions Bitcoin is important but so is the broader ecosystem

Pay attention to infrastructure not just tokens The one hundred billion dollar BRICS fund is going somewhere The projects that get built will need data tracking settlement and transparency layers The companies and protocols that provide those layers will capture value

Do not ignore compliance I know I know regulators are the enemy But the truth is that as crypto gets bigger it gets more visible and visibility brings regulation Projects that can navigate multiple regulatory regimes will survive and thrive Pure ideological maximalism is a luxury for those who can afford it

Build optionality The future is uncertain Having positions that do well under multiple scenarios is more valuable than doubling down on a single prediction That means diversification across asset classes geographies and time horizons

Stay human This is the most important one I have seen people in this space lose themselves in charts and metrics and price predictions They forget that crypto is ultimately about people about building systems that serve human needs about financial inclusion about freedom and sovereignty Do not let the numbers obscure the purpose

Part Nine The Historical Context We Often Forget

Before we conclude I want to take a step back and put this in some historical context because I think it is easy to get caught up in the immediate news and lose sight of the bigger picture

The current global financial architecture was largely designed in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference At that point the United States was the dominant economic power coming out of World War Two and the dollar was explicitly tied to gold while other currencies were tied to the dollar It was a system that reflected American power and American interests

For the next three decades this system worked reasonably well for the nations that were inside it Western Europe rebuilt Japan recovered and the global economy grew But even then there were tensions The fixed exchange rates eventually became unsustainable and in 1971 Nixon ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold

What followed was a period of managed floating exchange rates the rise of the Eurodollar market and the gradual liberalization of capital flows Throughout this period the dollar remained the dominant reserve currency not because of any formal agreement but because of the depth and liquidity of United States financial markets the size of the American economy and the perceived stability of American institutions

But dominance does not last forever History shows us that the world is reserve currency changes hands roughly every century or so The Dutch guilder gave way to the British pound and the British pound gave way to the United States dollar Each transition took decades and each was accompanied by significant geopolitical upheaval

We may be in the early stages of such a transition now Whether the BRICS initiative succeeds or fails the mere fact that it exists and has gained enough traction to announce a one hundred billion dollar fund is significant It signals that the Washington Consensus is no longer the only game in town

For those of us who have placed our faith in decentralized money this is both a risk and an opportunity The risk is that a multipolar world could fragment the internet and make cross border crypto transactions more difficult The opportunity is that a world with multiple competing financial systems creates more space for neutral assets that do not belong to any bloc

Part Ten The Technical Details That Matter

Let me dive a little deeper into the technical aspects of this development because I know many of you are technically minded and want to understand what is actually happening on the ground

The communique from the BRICS summit included language about tokenized local currency bonds This is not a new concept but the fact that it is being included in an official multilateral agreement signals that it is moving from experimental to institutional

Tokenized bonds are essentially traditional bonds that have been minted as tokens on a blockchain This allows for fractional ownership easier transfer and potentially faster settlement It also creates opportunities for programmable finance such as automatic interest payments or conditional transfers based on external data

The BRICS bank is reportedly working with the Blockchain Service Network in China which is a permissioned blockchain infrastructure that has been developed by the Chinese government for enterprise applications This is not a permissionless system like Ethereum It is designed to be compliant with Chinese regulations and to work within the existing financial regulatory framework

What this means is that the BRICS approach to blockchain finance is likely to be more centralized and more regulated than the crypto ecosystem that has grown up around Bitcoin and Ethereum This creates an interesting dynamic where there are two parallel systems developing at the same time One is centralized and state driven the other is decentralized and community driven

Neither system is likely to completely displace the other In the same way that the traditional banking system coexists with crypto finance we may see state sponsored blockchain finance coexist with permissionless crypto finance Each will have its strengths and its weaknesses

The state sponsored systems will have the advantages of institutional support legal recognition and integration with existing financial infrastructure The permissionless systems will have the advantages of censorship resistance global accessibility and trust minimization

The battle for the future of finance is not going to be won by one system displacing the other It is going to be won by each system capturing the use cases where it has comparative advantage

Part Eleven The Energy Question

I want to address a topic that comes up frequently in crypto discussions and that will only become more important as the BRICS infrastructure program unfolds The energy question

Bitcoin mining has always been controversial because of its energy consumption Critics argue that the electricity used to secure the network could be better used for other purposes Proponents argue that mining creates incentives for the development of renewable energy sources and provides a use for stranded or otherwise wasted energy

The BRICS infrastructure program will likely involve massive investments in energy production and distribution across the member nations This includes traditional fossil fuel generation but also renewable sources like solar wind and hydro

If a significant portion of this new energy capacity is allocated to data centers that include Bitcoin mining operations we could see a substantial increase in hash rate that comes from regions that were previously underutilized This could have several implications

First it could increase the overall security of the Bitcoin network by making hash rate more geographically distributed Second it could affect mining profitability as new supply comes online Third it could shift the narrative around Bitcoin energy consumption if the new mining is clearly tied to renewable sources

I am not making predictions about what will happen here but I am watching the energy policies of BRICS nations closely because they will likely have significant implications for the crypto ecosystem

Part Twelve The Regulatory Landscape

I would be remiss if I did not address the regulatory dimension of this development Because make no mistake the BRICS initiative is not just about economics it is also about geopolitics and the regulatory frameworks that govern global finance

The Western regulatory approach to crypto has been evolving over the past several years We have seen increased scrutiny of exchanges more rigorous know your customer requirements and attempts to bring stablecoin issuers within the regulatory perimeter The goal has been to protect consumers and maintain financial stability while preserving room for innovation

The BRICS approach is likely to be different China has already banned cryptocurrency trading and mining Russia has taken a more permissive approach but with significant restrictions on what can be done domestically India has flip flopped repeatedly but seems to be settling on a regulatory framework that allows some crypto activity while imposing significant restrictions

What this means is that as the BRICS financial system develops it will likely have its own regulatory frameworks that may not be compatible with Western standards This creates challenges for anyone trying to operate across both systems but also opportunities for those who can build compliant infrastructure that works in both environments

The coming years will likely see the emergence of what I call regulatory arbitrage but in a positive sense meaning the development of systems and protocols that can satisfy multiple regulatory regimes simultaneously This will require sophisticated legal and technical work but the rewards for getting it right could be substantial

Part Thirteen The Human Side Of The Story

I want to take a moment to talk about the people behind these developments Because at the end of the day it is people who make decisions and people who are affected by them

I have spent time talking to entrepreneurs and developers in Brazil who are building financial infrastructure for the domestic market I have talked to traders in Singapore who are positioning for increased BRICS related activity I have talked to developers in Russia who are building tools for the emerging digital economy

What strikes me every time is the sense of possibility that these conversations carry Yes there are challenges and risks and uncertainties But there is also a genuine belief that we are building something new something that could change the lives of billions of people for the better

The BRICS initiative is backed by nation states with their own agendas and their own interests But it is also driven by millions of ordinary people who see in it an opportunity for a better future Whether that opportunity is realized depends on many factors many of which are beyond our control

What we can control is how we position ourselves how we build our portfolios how we contribute to the ecosystem and how we support the people and projects that we believe in

Part Fourteen Final Thoughts

I started this newsletter three years ago because I wanted a space to think out loud about where the world is going The crypto space is full of hype and grift and people trying to separate you from your money But it is also full of genuine innovators who believe in a more open accessible financial system

The BRICS announcement does not change the fundamental thesis of this newsletter It just adds context The world is fragmenting The old certainties are eroding The institutions that shaped the post war order are being challenged by new players with new ideas

In that environment having some wealth in assets that exist outside any single nation is control is not paranoia it is prudence

I do not know what 2026 will bring I do not know if BRICS will succeed fail or muddle through I do not know if Bitcoin will hit 500000 dollars or drop to 30000 dollars

But I know that the people who understand these dynamics who think critically who diversify intelligently who stay curious and humble will be better positioned than those who do not

Thanks for reading this far It means a lot

I will be watching the on chain data and I will keep you posted

Until next time

The BRICSHOT Team

This bulletin is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice The geopolitical landscape is complex and volatile Always conduct your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose

If you found value in this edition forward it to a friend who needs to understand what is happening We grow by word of mouth

Appendix Deep Dive Six Sub Sectors To Watch

I promised I would go deeper on the specific crypto sub sectors that could benefit from the BRICS infrastructure build out Here is my expanded thinking

Multi Currency Stable Swaps

If the BRICS system grows we will need ways to move value between currency zones without going through dollars Projects like HOLD and xCRP are building AMM infrastructure specifically for this purpose They are not household names yet but if cross bloc trade takes off they will be critical plumbing The challenge here is that building cross currency liquidity is difficult because it requires bridging different settlement times different regulatory requirements and different market conventions But the rewards for solving this problem could be substantial

Permissioned Bridge Oracles

Chainlink has already secured deals with Moscow Exchange for CNY RUB reference data Pyth is pushing Brazilian CDI rates on chain Band Protocol is working with Indonesia is exchange for rupiah feeds These are not glamorous but they are essential infrastructure The project that becomes the standard for BRICS price feeds will print fees comparable to early Ethereum gas revenue The key insight here is that as more financial activity moves to the BRICS system the demand for reliable external data will grow exponentially

Energy And Carbon Credit Tokens

BRICS nations are increasingly focused on energy security and the energy transition Projects like KEFI POWR and CET could see demand from BRICS funded projects that need to tokenize and trade environmental attributes This is a long term play but the addressable market is enormous The reason is that infrastructure projects especially in the developing world will increasingly need to demonstrate environmental credentials and carbon credits provide a way to monetize positive environmental externalities

Real World Asset Debt Issuance

The six billion dollar Brazilian fiber optic bond I mentioned earlier is just the beginning When 100 billion dollars in infrastructure starts flowing there will be demand for tokenized debt instruments that can be traded on chain Projects like ONDO TRU and various RWA protocols are building for this future The key innovation here is that tokenization makes debt instruments more liquid more accessible and more transparent than traditional bond markets

Modular Data Availability Layers For CBDCs

This is more speculative but some projects are positioning themselves to provide the underlying data infrastructure for CBDC interoperability If the BRICS nations move toward a unified digital currency system they will need rails that can handle massive transaction volumes with data availability guarantees Projects like CELESTIA and EIGEN are building exactly this kind of infrastructure The opportunity here is that CBDCs will need to solve the same problems that blockchain protocols solve and the solutions that emerge from the crypto ecosystem may be adopted by nation states

Privacy Preserving Compliance

As FATF travel rules extend into the BRICS sphere there is going to be demand for compliance tools that do not require exposing all your financial data to every counterparty Zero knowledge proof systems like Polygon ID zkPass and similar projects are building solutions that let you prove you are compliant without revealing your entire transaction history This is a space that is often overlooked but could become critical as regulatory demands intensify The reason is that there is an inherent tension between privacy and compliance and solving this tension in a way that satisfies both requirements is extremely valuable

A Note On Risk Management

I want to conclude with a few words about risk management because I know that many of you are trying to navigate these markets with real money at stake

The first principle of risk management is diversification Do not put all your eggs in one basket This applies across asset classes across time horizons and across geographies In a world of increasing uncertainty diversification is not just prudent it is essential

The second principle is position sizing Never risk more than you can afford to lose on any single trade or investment This is especially important in volatile markets like crypto where prices can move dramatically in short periods of time

The third principle is continuous learning The world is changing rapidly and what worked yesterday may not work tomorrow Stay curious stay humble and always be willing to update your views based on new information

The fourth principle is community Seek out people who share your interests and who can provide different perspectives Learning from others is one of the most effective ways to improve your decision making

What To Watch In The Coming Weeks

As we move into the new year there are several key events and data points that I will be watching closely

First the implementation of the BRICS infrastructure fund How quickly will projects be announced What kind of projects will be prioritized How will the tokenized bond framework be implemented These details will give us clues about how serious the BRICS commitment really is

Second the response from Western institutions Will the World Bank and IMF adjust their lending policies Will Western governments impose new sanctions or restrictions on BRICS related activity How will rating agencies respond to the changing landscape

Third the on chain data I will be watching stablecoin flows cross chain activity and whale behavior to gauge how sophisticated players are positioning themselves

Fourth the regulatory developments In the United States the incoming administration is likely to make significant changes to crypto policy In Europe MiCA is still being implemented In Asia regulatory frameworks are evolving rapidly

Fifth the macro economy The global economy is in a fragile state and the interactions between monetary policy geopolitical developments and market dynamics will continue to create volatility

Closing Thoughts

I want to thank you again for taking the time to read this far I know it has been a long journey through geopolitics economics and crypto technology But I believe that understanding these connections is essential for anyone who wants to navigate the financial landscape of the coming decade

The world is changing rapidly and the old certainties are eroding The BRICS initiative is just one data point but it is a significant one It signals that the era of Western financial dominance may be coming to an end and that a new multipolar order is emerging

What this means for crypto what this means for your portfolio what this means for the future of money is still being written The story is not over and you have an opportunity to be part of it

Stay curious stay prudent and stay engaged

Until next time

Alfino Hatta

Once again none of this is investment advice I am just sharing my observations and thought process Do your own homework Stay safe out there

Is the BRICS Revolution the End of the American Financial Empire? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.