After suffering one of its worst Q4 performances in years, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to close the year in negative territory.
The crypto asset remains in a bear market that began in September, according to pseudonymous crypto market analyst Doctor Profit, who said that the asset has not yet completed its full bottoming process and will require another 12 to 14 months before a definitive low is formed.
2026 Crash Incoming?
In his latest analysis, Doctor Profit projected that Bitcoin’s eventual bottom could occur near the $60,000 level, and explained that markets require extended periods of sideways movement to build sufficient liquidity rather than moving quickly to final targets. Despite this longer-term bearish outlook, the analyst said Bitcoin could see a short-term upside move toward the $97,000 to $107,000 range in the coming weeks, and added that he does not expect a major downside move before February or March 2026.
The current phase appears to be a prolonged consolidation period, which aims to create liquidity on the downside. According to his assessment, this slow and manipulated price action is designed to exhaust market participants psychologically and make it difficult for most investors to maintain conviction long enough to buy near the eventual bottom.
Doctor Profit said he is currently bullish in the short term and has accumulated Bitcoin, while keeping his existing short position open as a hedge. This is to allow flexibility to capitalize on a potential 20% upside move before the broader downtrend resumes. He also linked BTC’s trajectory to wider macroeconomic conditions, while stating that global markets are experiencing an extreme liquidity crisis, as several indicators show stress levels comparable to or worse than those seen in 2008.
He pointed to changes in the US Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, which now allows individual banks to borrow up to $240 billion per day against high-quality collateral, as evidence of systemic fragility rather than unlimited money printing. Such borrowing is temporary and must be repaid quickly with interest. He further argued that the policy is intended to prevent sudden liquidity freezes rather than stimulate markets.
Doctor Profit said these measures indicate that authorities are losing the fight against inflation and rising debt levels, and he expects a major financial crisis to emerge in 2026. He said that such a crisis could be followed by large-scale monetary expansion similar to 2020, which would ultimately drive prices of assets such as Bitcoin, real estate, precious metals, and other stores of value significantly higher while fiat currencies continue to lose purchasing power.
Temporary Upside for Bitcoin
Another pseudonymous analyst, “Mr Wall Street,” echoed a similar short-term versus mid-term divergence in BTC’s outlook. While maintaining a bearish stance on the crypto asset over the medium term, he said downside liquidity remains insufficient for an immediate continuation of the broader decline.
As a result, he expects a short-term relief rally toward the $98,000-$104,000 range, an area he identified as a key liquidity zone and fair value gap.
Mr Wall Street said he entered long positions near $84,500 after Bitcoin held support around its weekly 100-day moving average. The analyst added that this move higher should be viewed as a bull trap rather than a trend reversal, stressing that he continues to expect BTC’s next major leg lower to target the $64,000-$70,000 region in late Q1 or early Q2 2026, describing the recent sharp swings as deliberate liquidity-driven moves designed to trap traders.
Despite these bearish projections, certain market commentators believe that 2026 could bring in a recovery. Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, for one, said that he expects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs next year.
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