Why a $75K Liquidity Test Still Has the Highest Probability!
Strong trends don’t break on bad news.
They correct when good news stops working.
Right now, good news isn’t working.
The Narrative Everyone Is Celebrating
Multiple Fed rate cutsT-Bill liquidity programs restartingInstitutions publicly accumulatingLong-term Bitcoin thesis still intact
Yet Bitcoin can’t sustain upside.
That disconnect is not bullish confirmation.
It’s a liquidity signal.
What Price Is Actually Saying
BTC is accepted near $87K → post-distribution valueRepeated failure to reclaim prior highsDemand is passive, supply is comfortable selling strengthPrice is not trending, it’s searching
Invalidation:
Only a weekly close above $95,700 negates this structure.
Until then, downside exploration might remains active.
The $75K Zone Is Not Fear — It’s Function
High-probability liquidity band: $72K–$78KVolume-weighted equilibrium: ~$76,150This is not a crash callThis is where real demand must prove itselfLiquidity comes before continuation. Always.
Volume Exposes the Truth
4H execution is consistent:
Sell volume expands on downsideBuy volume contracts on reboundsRallies stall quicklySelling accelerates into optimism
This is not panic selling.
This is controlled distribution.
Big players are using bullish narratives as liquidity.
Multi-Timeframe Alignment (Why This Matters)
Weekly
Macro uptrend intactMomentum rolling over → normal cycle reset
Daily
Lower highs.Failed value reclaim.Momentum shifting negative.
4H
Weak absorption.Fast downside legs.Sellers control rebounds.
This is correction within a bull market, not a bear market.
Fed Cuts & T-Bills: The Timing Trap
Rate cuts ≠ instant risk-on.Early easing phases often bring volatility, not expansion.T-Bills are long-term bullish.Short-term, they absorb liquidity before releasing it.Liquidity is coming.
It just hasn’t reached spot demand yet.
Institutional Buying ≠ Immediate Support
Long-term allocators buy patiently.They don’t defend short-term structure.Price weakness despite known buyers is the signal.
Accumulation without marginal demand usually precedes:
Lower-liquidity price discovery
The Only Question That Matters
Not:
“Is Bitcoin dead?”
But:
“Does real demand step in when liquidity is tested?”
That answer defines the next leg.
Final Probability Map
Volume → distributionStructure → downside explorationLiquidity → patience
Until invalidated by a weekly close above $95,700:
➡️ $75K remains the highest-probability liquidity test before continuation
Markets don’t move on belief.
They move on liquidity.
Closing Thoughts
Bitcoin isn’t bearish.
Liquidity just hasn’t finished its job yet.
$75K isn’t fear — it’s the test
What do you think will happen when Bitcoin tests the $75K liquidity zone? Drop your thoughts in the comments , the smartest conversations often happen before price moves.
Bitcoin Magazine Nic Carter CoinDesk Messari
Bitcoin’s Most Uncomfortable Reality in 2025 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.