The past week has been positive for bitcoin (BTC), with the asset breaking through its August 25 local top of $65,200 after multiple previous rejections. While BTC is currently trading below the $65,000 range and could record more gains, analysts say there are warning signs.
According to a Bitfinex report, there is a lack of spot market aggression, indicating faded interest and the possibility of bitcoin’s price nearing equilibrium or a fair value based on market conditions. BTC needs a catalyst to re-ignite significant momentum towards the upside.
The Most Positive September
As the fourth quarter begins, BTC hovers within an extensive consolidation range between $50,000 and $68,000, a pattern usually seen in halving years.
Last month, the most positive September on record regarding monthly price performance, saw the leading digital asset close with more than 7%. BTC recovered from its September 6 low of $52,756 by 25%. The asset’s surge above $66,500 marked its first significant move above a local top since early August 2024.
Bitcoin is now above key on-chain levels, such as the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) of $62,750. Bitfinex says staying above this line is a crucial indicator for a bull market trend.
Multiple historical patterns suggest BTC may reach a new all-time high (ATH) towards the end of Q4 2024 or the beginning of Q1 2025. Bitfinex noted that this prediction depends on similar market dynamics and investor sentiment from previous post-halving cycles.
Although these historical patterns and trends paint a positive picture, other on-chain data suggest BTC may not see the significant bullish momentum needed to hit a new ATH in the near term.
Warning Signs
There has been a decline in spot market aggression, the kind of activity that signals an urgency to buy BTC at the current price. The flattening spot market aggression coincides with an increase in perpetual and futures markets’ open interest, which indicates that leveraged investor participation has also risen.
In addition, bitcoin’s open interest has surged to $35.35 billion for the sixth time ever, raising concerns about a potential market overheating. Such surges have coincided with past local peaks, triggering eventual slumps.
“This pattern suggests caution, as previous instances have typically preceded adjustments in price trends, indicating that we may be nearing another critical juncture in market dynamics,” Bitfinex explained.
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