Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late on September 25 that Bitcoin\u2019s pullback is tracking a familiar seasonal and structural script\u2014and that the market\u2019s next major impulse hinges on a clearly defined support range. \u201cHold $107k to $98K,\u201d he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the bull cycle\u2019s next leg. \u201cThat\u2019s it. It\u2019s that simple.\u201d<\/p>\n
Opening his stream<\/a> amid a rush of bearish sentiment as BTC price dipped to $108,651, Kevin argued the drawdown should not surprise disciplined traders. He framed the current move in the context of months of caution dating back to early August, when he began highlighting weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total altcoin market (Total2), into what he described as four-plus-year resistance zones.<\/p>\n \u201cEveryone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns,\u201d he said, \u201cbut in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside.\u201d He pointed to a progression of smaller impulse highs since late 2023 and reiterated that despite sharp rallies in select altcoins, the majors failed to clear \u201cany major resistance levels.\u201d<\/p>\n The anchor of Kevin\u2019s case is confluence on higher time frames. On Bitcoin\u2019s weekly chart, he outlined rising price highs against falling momentum\u2014\u201csimple strength and momentum indicators,\u201d not signals by themselves but context that \u201chas been dwindling for a very long time.\u201d<\/p>\n Total2, he added, registered \u201ca triple top on the weekly\u201d beneath roughly $1.71\u2013$1.74 trillion\u2014\u201cthe all-be-all resistance level\u201d\u2014with weekly RSI and MACD rolling over. Stocks of momentum, in his read, are resetting precisely where they should amid historically thin late-summer liquidity. \u201cQ3 is never a good quarter for crypto,\u201d Kevin said. \u201cAugust, September are terrible months. They always are.\u201d<\/p>\n Against that backdrop, he argued that USDT dominance remains the most reliable inter-market compass. \u201cUSDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart,\u201d he said, walking through a macro descending triangle with a flat-bottom support near 3.9\u20133.7% and repeated rallies to a falling trendline that have mapped crypto cycle lows and highs for two years.<\/p>\n Each approach to the flat bottom, he noted, has carved a W- or inverse-head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D while Bitcoin distributed near local tops; each rejection at the downtrend has coincided with crypto inflections. \u201cYou literally don\u2019t need any chart in all of crypto,\u201d he said. \u201cAll you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly.\u201d<\/p>\n From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a three-month BTC liquidity \u201cheat map\u201d shelf near $106.8K and the 21-week EMA\u2014the bull-market support band\u2014near $109.2K as natural magnets, with the lower weekly Bollinger Band sitting around $101K.<\/p>\n He stressed he doesn\u2019t want to see \u201cBitcoin lose 106.8K\u201d if the cycle remains intact, though a wick into that area to \u201cswipe the liquidity\u201d would be consistent with prior resets. He framed $98K as the line that should not break decisively. \u201cThere\u2019s a whole lot of support in that range,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019d be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn\u2019t able to bounce in there somewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n Kevin tied structural signals to an explicit macro checklist, arguing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms align with fundamental catalysts rather than charts alone. He cited 2021\u2019s inflation spike and the onset of the Fed\u2019s hiking cycle as the driver of that cycle\u2019s 55\u201360% drawdown, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse<\/a> as the final capitulation in 2022 amid weekly bullish divergence.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts,\u201d he said. By contrast, he sees no such cycle-ending macro trigger today: inflation gauges have been \u201cvery choppy\u201d but contained; the Fed is widely expected to ease into year-end provided labor softens; and seasonality favors Q4<\/a>.<\/p>\n He underscored the near-term calendar\u2014core PCE, CPI and labor data in the first half of October\u2014as decisive for risk appetite. \u201cSometime in mid-October\u2026 we\u2019ll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go,\u201d he said. \u201cIf we get to mid-October and Bitcoin\u2019s holding key support\u2026 and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut\u2026 the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]\u2014and then you\u2019re in Q4.\u201d<\/p>\n Volatility positioning, he added, argues for a sharp directional move once the reset completes. On the weekly Bollinger Band Width, Kevin said BTC has printed record-low readings three times this cycle\u2014each in Q3\u2014and each episode began with a downside break of 18\u201329% before surging to fresh highs.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet,\u201d he said, noting spot volumes have declined since November while bands have tightened to historic extremes. A test of the lower weekly band near $101K \u201cis possible,\u201d but not required, in his view; the key is that the broader $107K\u2013$98K corridor functions as a springboard.<\/p>\n Kevin was equally explicit about invalidation and upside triggers. He labeled $125K \u201ca major top for now\u201d and said the market needs weekly and monthly closes above that level to confirm trend continuation.<\/p>\nBitcoin Top In Until Proven Otherwise<\/h2>\n
All Eyes On Q4 Seasonality<\/h2>\n