The Federal Reserve\u2019s first rate cut of 2025 has landed\u201425 basis points on September 17\u2014and, in Trader Mayne\u2019s telling, that removes the last macro \u201cX-factor\u201d hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can \u201cjust focus on the charts,\u201d sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg higher into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a classic altseason blow-off. \u201cWe had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally\u2026 It\u2019s 25 basis points,\u201d he said. \u201cNow the market\u2019s going to digest it.\u201d<\/p>\n
The policy backdrop he\u2019s reacting to is straightforward: the FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by a quarter point to 4.00%\u20134.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the move as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to additional easing this year. The decision drew an 11\u20131 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran<\/a> dissenting in favor of a larger, 50 bps cut\u2014an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish direction\u2014while the Board\u2019s implementation note reset key administered rates effective Sept. 18. Markets read the statement and projections as signaling scope for further cuts into year-end.<\/p>\n From here, Mayne\u2019s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin\u2019s most recent upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects price to \u201cpush above the mid-range\u201d toward a range high around $120,000\u2013$121,000, where he will watch for rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence defined by a weekly swing-failure pattern (SFP) and an H12 breaker.<\/p>\n If momentum stalls there, he plans to short into a washout to clear out built-up leverage\u2014\u201cHYPE made another all-time high today. PUMP has tripled in the last two weeks\u2026 there\u2019s some leverage in the system\u201d\u2014and then buy the dip for what he calls the last parabolic leg of the cycle. \u201cAny sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long,\u201d he said, adding that a shallow retest in the $110,000\u2013$111,000 area or a deeper sweep of recent lows would both be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive.<\/p>\n If, instead, price grinds through the $120,000 s with no signs of exhaustion, Mayne says he has \u201cno problem\u201d flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high once strength is confirmed intraday\u2014an approach that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (\u201cOnce this thing broke out aggressively\u2026 you\u2019re looking for longs\u201d). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the short he\u2019s eyeing is counter-trend\u2014\u201ca pullback in an uptrend\u201d\u2014and the prime objective remains to position for the next impulsive advance.<\/p>\n Timing-wise, he situates the prospective cycle top<\/a> in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a pattern in which Bitcoin\u2019s final vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 region is followed by distribution while altcoins reprice higher\u2014the archetypal altseason.<\/p>\n \u201cThis parabolic leg I think would be the last leg of the bull run,\u201d he said, before outlining notional alt targets consistent with a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000\u2013$7,000, Solana $300\u2013$500, Dogecoin<\/a> $0.50\u2013$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a last BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH \u201cvery quickly,\u201d then Q4 \u201cmania\u201d with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes.<\/p>\n The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on concepts familiar to discretionary price-action traders. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the trap line at range edges; H12 breakers and order blocks frame high-probability reaction zones; and fair-value gaps guide where liquidity vacuums might fill during a corrective flush.<\/p>\n On structure, he insists the weekly trend remains up, so any short is tactical and any deeper dip must resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the former highs to keep the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: \u201cIf we spend any significant time back below [the 2024 all-time high], it\u2019s really bad\u2026 I\u2019m probably going to reassess my thoughts.\u201d<\/p>\n Macro, in Mayne\u2019s view, now recedes to the background. The rate cut may have helped pull forward some September strength\u2014\u201cyou could argue\u2026 the up move we\u2019ve seen on Bitcoin\u2026 is in anticipation of this rate cut\u201d\u2014but with the decision made and Powell hinting there \u201ccould be another one\u2026 there could be two,\u201d his emphasis is squarely on execution: wait for price to trade into the $120,000s and signal weakness for the clean counter-trend short; or, absent weakness, wait for the breakout continuation and ride it. Either way, he\u2019s explicit about the north star for the coming weeks: \u201cFocus on Bitcoin\u2026 Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long\u2026 Then altseason<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n At press time, BTC traded at $117,176.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Federal Reserve\u2019s first rate cut of 2025 has landed\u201425 basis points on September 17\u2014and, in Trader Mayne\u2019s telling, that removes the last macro \u201cX-factor\u201d hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":97673,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-97672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97672"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=97672"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97672\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/97673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=97672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=97672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=97672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}When Will The Crypto Market Top?<\/h2>\n