{"id":97328,"date":"2025-09-17T13:00:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T13:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=97328"},"modified":"2025-09-17T13:00:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T13:00:11","slug":"1-million-bitcoin-is-coming-arthur-hayes-says-fed-just-pulled-the-trigger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/?p=97328","title":{"rendered":"$1 Million Bitcoin Is Coming: Arthur Hayes Says Fed Just Pulled The Trigger"},"content":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes believes the macro domino that sends Bitcoin to $1 million has just tipped. In a post on X late Monday, the BitMEX co-founder argued that the US Federal Reserve is preparing markets for \u201cyield curve control\u201d (YCC) under what he called a \u201cthird mandate,\u201d pointing to the confirmation of economist Stephen Miran<\/a> to the Fed\u2019s Board of Governors and a fresh Bloomberg report raising the same specter.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed\u2019s \u2018third mandate\u2019 which is essentially yield curve control. LFG! YCC -> $BTC = $1m,\u201d Hayes wrote<\/a>. His comment came hours after Bloomberg published \u201cFed \u2018Third Mandate\u2019 Forces Bond Traders to Rethink Age-Old Rules,\u201d which frames the possibility that the Fed will more actively shepherd long-term rates as part of its statutory goals.<\/p>\n

Miran\u2019s arrival at the Board is no longer hypothetical. He was narrowly confirmed by the US Senate and sworn in ahead of this week\u2019s policy meeting<\/a> while simultaneously the broader political fight over the central bank\u2019s independence is flaring up.<\/p>\n

The crux of Hayes\u2019s claim is that the Fed\u2019s oft-described \u201cdual mandate\u201d is, in fact, three-part, and that emphasizing \u201cmoderate long-term interest rates\u201d could lead policymakers toward direct control of the yield curve. That wording is not a meme; it is statutory. Under 12 U.S.C. \u00a7 225a, Congress instructs the Fed to promote \u201cmaximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates,\u201d a formulation also reflected on the Fed\u2019s own website.<\/p>\n

What Yield Curve Control Means For Bitcoin<\/h2>\n

On X, several market voices quickly co-signed the framing. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan simply replied, \u201cAgree.\u201d Macro investor Lawrence Lepard reacted, \u201cWow! Miran saying the quiet part out loud!\u201d Others noted they\u2019ve been flagging the \u201cthird mandate\u201d for months.<\/p>\n

Mel Mattison highlighted the statute in June, writing that keeping the long end \u201cmoderate\u201d is \u201cjust as much part of their mandate as are price stability and unemployment,\u201d and argued that in a conflict of goals\u2014as during Covid\u2014policymakers could \u201csacrifice one to get two,\u201d i.e., use balance-sheet tools to stabilize the long end and employment even if it risks higher inflation. His point underscores the operational hinge in Hayes\u2019s thesis.<\/p>\n

What YCC would mean in practice is contested but conceptually clear. Unlike standard QE<\/a>\u2014which sets a purchase size and lets yields float\u2014YCC targets specific yields on medium- or long-dated Treasuries, enforcing caps with unlimited buying if needed. The St. Louis Fed describes YCC as \u201cimposing interest rate caps on particular maturities,\u201d a framework seen in Japan since 2016<\/a> and, briefly, in Australia. Such a regime would aim to arrest disorderly jumps in long rates that complicate debt service and risk transmission; critics view it as a soft form of financial repression with inflationary tail risks.<\/p>\n

Hayes has tied this macro lever to an extreme Bitcoin upside for years. In 2022 he wrote that \u201cYCC = $1mm BTC,\u201d a refrain he revived in 2023 and again today. The logic is straightforward in his telling: if the Fed caps long-term yields while fiscal deficits remain wide, real yields are suppressed and fiat debasement accelerates, directing marginal flows into hard-cap assets like Bitcoin. Whether that causal chain unfolds is an open question, but the call is consistent with his prior essays and public posts.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg\u2019s piece did not declare YCC policy imminent; instead it documented how traders are re-pricing duration risk in light of Miran\u2019s remarks about \u201cmoderate long-term interest rates\u201d and the political context surrounding the Fed.<\/p>\n

Still, the statutory anchor gives the \u201cthird mandate\u201d narrative more than rhetorical weight. As the Fed convenes its September meeting\u2014with a rate cut widely anticipated and the Board\u2019s composition in flux\u2014debate over whether the institution will ultimately be pushed from guidance to control on the long end has moved from fringe threads into mainstream coverage.<\/p>\n

For Bitcoin, Hayes argues that merely acknowledging that path is the \u201ctrigger.\u201d For markets more broadly, the stakes lie in whether managing the curve becomes a policy choice\u2014or a policy necessity.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $116,694.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes believes the macro domino that sends Bitcoin to $1 million has just tipped. In a post on X late Monday, the BitMEX co-founder argued that the US Federal Reserve is preparing markets for \u201cyield curve control\u201d (YCC) under what he called a \u201cthird mandate,\u201d pointing to the confirmation of economist Stephen Miran to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":97329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-97328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-discovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97328"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=97328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97328\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/97329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=97328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=97328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mycryptomania.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=97328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}