Bitcoin\u2019s current rebound off the $107,200 low has sparked renewed debate over whether the market has already set its local bottom and is positioned to rally higher.. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) argues that the probability is \u201c90%+\u201d that the low has been planted, citing both price structure and his recurring \u201cFOMC reversal confluence\u201d framework as confirmation.<\/p>\n
Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000\u2013$111,000 zone, revealed<\/a> that he flipped long as the target was reached in late August. \u201cAlright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren\u2019t strong enough \u2026 there now is another confluence lining up,\u201d he wrote. According to him, the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy meeting cycle<\/a> has historically functioned as a turning point for Bitcoin trends.<\/p>\n He explained: \u201cThe FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn\u2019t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).\u201d In practice, Astronomer argues, markets front-run the event, as insiders and well-capitalized players set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment digests the outcome.<\/p>\n With the next FOMC scheduled for September 18, he contends the downtrend from $123,000 to $110,000 already exhausted itself ahead of schedule. \u201cNow with FOMC coming up \u2026 the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The analyst contrasted his methodology with the broader crypto commentary ecosystem, where many influencers continue to forecast further downside and a \u201cred September.\u201d He called such views \u201cutter nonsense\u201d rooted in surface-level seasonality. \u201cEvery time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation \u2026 insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,\u201d he wrote, stressing that relying on generic \u201cbe careful\u201d warnings ahead of central bank events misses the structural shift.<\/p>\n