Dogecoin is approaching a familiar inflection on the monthly chart that previously preceded its most explosive advances, according to a new high-timeframe analysis from Kevin (Kev Capital TA) published on September 11. The analyst argues that a fresh stochastic RSI (stoch RSI) cross to the upside on the monthly timeframe\u2014now forming but not yet above the 20 threshold\u2014echoes the technical regime that fueled Dogecoin\u2019s prior cycle blow-offs.<\/p>\n
\u201cBack in February 2017, Dogecoin got a V-shaped stock RSI cross above the 20 level and it went on another rally\u2026 1,852%,\u201d he said<\/a>, adding that a subsequent monthly cross \u201cproduced a very nice 1,751% gain\u201d before the market ultimately topped. The setup, he contends, is again coalescing into Q4.<\/p>\n The framework is deliberately simple: pair the monthly stoch RSI with the monthly RSI and an anchored trend structure. In the 2015\u20132017 cycle, sustained stoch RSI crosses above 20 were the dividing line between failed bear-market feints and true bull-cycle advances. By contrast, a 2019 impulse rally faded because \u201cthe stock RSI never really got a durable cross to the upside,\u201d occurring amid a still-dominant bear regime, he noted. In the 2020\u20132021 cycle, a new stoch RSI bull cross above 20 \u201cgoes on its major bull market rally, which was the biggest rally Dogecoin has ever been on.\u201d<\/p>\n Kevin says the present cycle has followed a cleaner sequence than prior ones. After a confirmed monthly stoch RSI bull cross earlier in the cycle, Dogecoin delivered an initial advance \u201croughly 280%,\u201d then, following a corrective phase, another monthly cross powered a \u201cNovember-December rally\u201d of about \u201c497%.\u201d The market then reset again.<\/p>\n Today, he sees that process restarting: \u201cWe are getting a monthly stock RSI cross again. However, we have not yet crossed the 20 level. So this is the very beginning stages of a potential rally for Dogecoin.\u201d He emphasizes that historically, \u201cyou don\u2019t even get your most bullish price action until the stock RSIs are above the 80 level,\u201d calling the current moment the \u201cfirst or second inning.\u201d<\/p>\n Beyond momentum, the analyst highlights a three-part structural confluence he considers critical on the monthly chart. First, the RSI itself has repeatedly crossed back above its moving average at inflection points; second, each of those RSI\/MA recaptures \u201chas coincided with a stock RSI cross to the upside\u201d; third, price has defended a long-running trend line on a series of higher lows.<\/p>\n After a brief deviation below, \u201cwe\u2019re now breaking back above the trend line and the [RSI] MA at the same time after holding the 50 level,\u201d which he describes as a textbook double-bottom reaction. He stresses that monthly closes still matter\u2014\u201cwe still have\u2026 more than half a month to go\u2026 this is not guaranteed\u201d\u2014but the multi-indicator alignment is intact. In his words, \u201cwe\u2019re talking about a combination of indicators and technicals that have never failed before,\u201d provided the macro backdrop doesn\u2019t flip adverse.<\/p>\n Macro is the caveat and, potentially, the accelerator. Kevin frames US monetary policy<\/a> as the decisive driver of the crypto risk cycle: \u201cMonetary policy\u2026 that\u2019s the earnings report for the crypto market.\u201d He argues that inflation has been range-bound on a year-long view while labor data \u201ccontinues to soften,\u201d a mix he believes anchors expectations for rate cuts \u201cthis month\u2026 and\u2026 in November and December.\u201d<\/p>\n If that path holds and the Federal Reserve\u2019s tone is dovish at the upcoming FOMC<\/a>, he expects Bitcoin dominance to drift lower and for \u201calt season\u201d dynamics to reassert, with Dogecoin positioned to \u201coutperform over Bitcoin.\u201d Conversely, a hawkish turn or a renewed inflation drift higher would be a \u201cmajor hiccup\u201d for the setup.<\/p>\nMacro Conditions Need To Align<\/h2>\n