Matthew Me\u017einskis, the analyst behind Porkopolis Economics and co-host of the \u201ccrypto_voices\u201d podcast, told Marty Bent on TFTC that Bitcoin\u2019s late-cycle upside remains larger than most models imply, arguing that price action continues to track a long-standing \u201cpower trend\u201d that has governed every prior boom. Anchoring his view in percentile \u201cbands\u201d around that trend, he contends the market can still deliver a two-to-three-times move into year-end, placing a $250,000 to $375,000 range in play.<\/p>\n
Me\u017einskis frames<\/a> the thesis in stark, testable terms. \u201cBitcoin has traditionally during the booms very easily gotten above the 80th percentile each time,\u201d he said, noting that the strongest phases in earlier cycles climbed \u201cvery easily\u201d above the 90th as well. He defines the 80th percentile as roughly 1.3\u00d7 the trend and the 90th as 2\u00d7. On his model, the end-2025 trend value sits near $125,000, which fixes the 80th-percentile validation line at about $170,000 and the 90th at $250,000. \u201cIf we don\u2019t get above 170k by year end or into like the first couple months of next year then I would\u2026rethink the idea of the four-year cycles<\/a>,\u201d he said, before stressing that \u201cit hasn\u2019t been invalidated yet.\u201d<\/p>\n The centerpiece of his outlook is a simple rule-of-thumb extrapolation from those bands. \u201cThe 90th is 2x\u2026so 2x is $250k,\u201d he explained. He then extends the historical envelope to the mid-90s percentiles to size a more aggressive\u2014but still precedent-based\u2014target. \u201cIn 2021\u2026it was a 96th percentile\u2026the 2.8x\u2014round it here\u20143x,\u201d he said. \u201cTotally base case, totally possible\u2026would be 2 to 3x the trend\u2026$250k to $375k Bitcoin.\u201d Even as he embraces that range, he tempered expectations for a blow-off beyond it. \u201cI would be very surprised if Bitcoin went above $350 or $375k by the end of the year, but I think it\u2019s possible.\u201d<\/p>\n His framework is deliberately non-technical in the chartist sense. \u201cWe\u2019re just looking at the power trend and where the price typically is over or under trend every four years,\u201d he said. The model\u2014represented by a \u201cblack line\u201d he\u2019s tracked since 2016\u2014has, in his telling, proved more durable than the once-fashionable stock-to-flow approach: \u201cIt\u2019s like the best trend line in all of finance\u2026certainly better than the old stock-to-flow ratio.\u201d<\/p>\n The percentile overlays are frequency-based markers: the 90th denotes a level above which only 10 percent of observations sit, the 99th above only 1 percent. Historically, he observed, the most explosive cycles\u20142013 and 2017\u2014briefly reached the 99th percentile, roughly 4.6\u00d7 trend, a zone 2021 never touched. That \u201csofter top\u201d dynamic is consistent, he argues, with maturation: \u201cAs Bitcoin gets more adopted, these peaks do come down.\u201d<\/p>\n Pushing beyond the base case, Me\u017einskis addressed the outlier narratives circulating on social media. He acknowledged hearing projections in the \u201c$444,000 in November\u201d neighborhood and mapped them to his high-percentile bands: \u201c400,000 is the 97th\u2026[between] the 97th and 98th percentile, it\u2019s pretty rare.\u201d Those levels, at about 3\u00bd\u00d7 trend, are\u2014by definition\u2014levels the market spends very little time above.<\/p>\n None of this, he emphasized, is a timer. The framework \u201cdoesn\u2019t tell you the time\u2026we\u2019re just assuming the four-year cycle.\u201d If the cycle extends or compresses, the model won\u2019t predict that path; it only sketches the altitude the market has historically achieved once a boom is underway. \u201cIf the market gets heated\u2026if grandma\u2019s getting excited this Thanksgiving\u2026and giving her grandchildren money to buy Bitcoin, then perhaps it could happen again,\u201d he quipped, before reiterating: \u201cAbsolutely possible that we have lower highs and even possible that we get out of the four-year cycle, but I\u2019m still not seeing it based on the price action.\u201d<\/p>\n Me\u017einskis also flagged the hazards that often follow euphoria, warning that narrative shifts at elevated plateaus can coincide with leverage-driven fragility. Should Bitcoin treasury companies<\/a> lever short-dated convertible debt to chase higher prices, a downturn could expose maturity and liquidity mismatches.<\/p>\n