Bitcoin slid to levels not seen since early July this week, but some analysts say the drop may be only a short pause before a bigger year-end move.<\/p>\n
September has a long record of being the weakest month for BTC<\/a>, and historically it has never closed more than 8% higher. That context is shaping how traders and researchers read the charts now.<\/p>\n According to research from network economist Timothy Peterson, there are four months until Christmas and history favors gains in that window.<\/p>\n Peterson posted on X that Bitcoin has been higher over the same four-month<\/a> span 70% of the time, and the average gain he calculated was +44%.<\/p>\n Based on that average, Bitcoin would trade near $160,000 by the last week of 2025. Peterson also warned that the calculation is more of a guideline than a promise.<\/p>\n Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time?<\/p>\n Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%.<\/p>\n However I think some years do not have market\/economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as uncharacteristic years.\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/0llPeTrilC<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) August 25, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n He suggested excluding certain years\u20142018, 2022, 2020, and 2017\u2014because those years did not match what he calls comparable market conditions, and removing them tilts the result toward steadier, more positive returns.<\/p>\n Markets rarely follow neat averages. Even when a long-term pattern appears, short bursts of volatility still happen.<\/p>\n Peterson\u2019s note about excluding specific years acknowledges that reality. It is a reminder that averages smooth over big swings.<\/p>\n BTC\u2026 <\/p>\n We\u2019re just front-running the \u201cSeptember sell off\u201d.<\/p>\n The scale is different \u2014 but the outcome is the same.<\/p>\n Much higher. pic.twitter.com\/3oZqRlrtgv<\/a><\/p>\nExpert\u2019s Timing And Historic Averages<\/h2>\n