Bitcoin (BTC) has once again slipped under the $120,000 price mark, retracing after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. As of the latest market data, BTC is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% below its peak.<\/p>\n
This price movement suggests that the asset is currently consolidating after its recent rally, leaving market participants watching closely for the next directional move.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, analysts are turning to on-chain data for signals on Bitcoin\u2019s potential trajectory. One such perspective comes from PelinayPA, a contributor to CryptoQuant\u2019s QuickTake platform, who examined<\/a> long-term holder (LTH) behavior using a set of profit and loss metrics.<\/p>\n The findings highlight that while profit-taking has begun, current selling levels<\/a> remain below historical extremes seen in past bull market peaks.<\/p>\n According to PelinayPA, the LTH analysis uses several indicators to measure the relationship between Bitcoin\u2019s price and the cost basis of long-term holders.<\/p>\n Profit and loss bands, ranging from 150% to 1,000% above cost basis, help determine when Bitcoin enters zones historically associated with a higher risk of market tops. When BTC approaches the +500% band, it has often coincided with heightened selling activity<\/a> and eventual cycle peaks.<\/p>\n The analysis also incorporates a Spending Binary Indicator, which reflects the intensity of LTH selling, alongside \u201cHigh Spending\u201d signals that typically emerge near market tops and \u201cBottom Alerts\u201d that occur during deep corrections.<\/p>\n Reviewing past cycles, PelinayPA pointed to 2017 and 2021, where bear market downturns followed heavy long-term holder selling, while the 2022\u20132023 bottom was marked by multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000\u2013$20,000 range.<\/p>\n Currently, Bitcoin sits within the 150%\u2013350% profit band, leaving potential room for further growth<\/a>, though the risk of a market top rises as the asset approaches the higher bands. The analyst noted that while green profit-taking bars are visible today, they remain well below the levels observed in earlier cycle peaks.<\/p>\n In outlining the potential scenarios, PelinayPA suggested that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the short term, as controlled profit-taking by long-term holders limits upside momentum.<\/p>\nTracking Long-Term Holder Signals<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Short, Mid, and Long Term<\/h2>\n