Bitcoin\u2019s next major leg higher may depend less on halving lore and more on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market note on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Kr\u00fcger argued that the cycle\u2019s duration will be set by the Federal Reserve\u2019s leadership change\u2014specifically, who President Trump nominates to replace Jerome Powell\u2014rather than by any fixed four-year pattern. \u201cI have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell,\u201d Kr\u00fcger wrote.<\/p>\n
Kr\u00fcger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it \u201cremarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.\u201d He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: \u201cThe concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.\u201d In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned \u201cultra-hawkish in January 2022,\u201d not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic.<\/p>\n
The nomination clock is visible. Powell\u2019s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the White House has narrowed a shortlist to \u201cthree or four\u201d names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market\u2019s focus on how dovish\u2014or not\u2014the next chair might be.<\/p>\n
In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell\u2019s final Jackson Hole appearance<\/a>, scheduled during the Aug. 21\u201323 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Kr\u00fcger leans \u201cslightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.\u201d<\/p>\n Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000\u2013$124,000 zone<\/a> of recent peaks. Kr\u00fcger also highlights that \u201cBTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,\u201d a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite.<\/p>\n Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the \u201clow-vol, slow ascent\u201d regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL\/BVIV) has sat near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Kr\u00fcger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback\u2014a classic sign of froth leaking out\u2014while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips.<\/p>\n