Ethereum has run straight into its four-year ceiling, with price action pressing the $4,700 band that Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) repeatedly calls \u201cthe level that decides everything.\u201d His latest broadcast frames ETH\u2019s setup as binary: either a decisive break through this resistance \u2014 confirmed by a clean weekly close and a break of the down-trending weekly RSI line \u2014 or another rejection that extends a months-long pattern of weakening rallies.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe catch-up is over,\u201d Kevin said<\/a>, noting ETH has \u201cfinally caught up to basically where Bitcoin is at\u2026 it\u2019s at its major resistance.\u201d In his read, the $4,700 area is not a single tick but a supply zone defined by the prior cycle\u2019s peak and reinforced by a \u201cweekly downtrend on the RSI\u201d that has capped every advance since early 2024. \u201cBreak resistance and the real bull will begin,\u201d he added. Until that happens, he characterizes this band as the \u201cline in the sand.\u201d<\/p>\n Momentum into the test was real. Kevin described money flow improving and \u201cnice patterns forming on some altcoins\u201d \u2014 including \u201ctextbook inverse head and shoulders\u201d \u2014 before the follow-through failed and ETH stalled right at resistance<\/a>. He pointed to the Asia session\u2019s lack of continuation and, more forcefully, to a macro surprise that hit as the market was leaning long.<\/p>\n That shock was the US Producer Price Index. \u201cThe PPI came in significantly hotter than expected,\u201d Kevin said, emphasizing both the magnitude and where the pressure showed up: month-over-month +0.9% versus +0.2% expected, year-over-year 3.3% versus 2.5%, with core PPI +0.9% m\/m versus +0.2% and 3.7% y\/y versus 3.0%.<\/p>\n In his view, this reflects tariff-driven costs being \u201cbrunted by the producer,\u201d which is why the spike surfaced in PPI rather than CPI. The open question \u2014 and the risk to ETH at resistance \u2014 is whether those costs \u201ctrickle into the CPI\u201d and, by extension, PCE. He underscored how quickly rate-cut probabilities whipsawed on the FedWatch tool intraday: September still heavily favored, October largely intact, and December \u201cpricing out a third rate cut\u201d before flipping back toward it as the day progressed. \u201cThis has been volatile this morning\u2026 let it settle out,\u201d he cautioned, adding that next week\u2019s Jackson Hole<\/a> remarks from Chair Powell are the next major macro catalyst.<\/p>\n Technically, Kevin\u2019s checklist for Ethereum does not change with one data print. He stresses two confirmations: take out the horizontal supply around $4,700 with authority and \u201cbreak the weekly downtrend on the RSI\u201d to nullify the bearish divergence that has persisted since Q1 2024. \u201cResistance is resistance until it\u2019s not,\u201d he said. Fail there, and ETH risks another corrective leg as late longs are forced out at the worst possible spot. Succeed, and \u201cthe entire conversation changes,\u201d opening a path to what he calls a \u201creal bull\u201d in ETH and, by knock-on effect, in the broader alt market.<\/p>\n