According to Matt\u202fHougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, what used to be a near\u2011perfect four\u2011year Bitcoin pattern now looks less reliable. Supply cuts, rate moves and crash risks once drove big swings. Now, fresh forces are taking over.<\/p>\n
Hougan points out that each Bitcoin<\/a> halving still cuts new coins by 50% but matters less over time. In early cycles, that shock fueled parabolic runs.<\/p>\n Today, with a market cap in the hundreds of billions, the same supply cut is half as important every four years. Back in 2016 and 2020, prices jumped more than 150% around halving events. Now, moves hover under 50% in similar windows.<\/p>\n Based on analysis from the Bitwise CIO, interest rates have been friendlier this time around. In 2018 and 2022, tightening by the US Federal Reserve coincided with brutal crypto drops that sent Bitcoin down 72% and 69% from peak to trough. Now, rates are easing or on pause, so crypto often trades up rather than down.<\/p>\n Why is the four-year cycle dead?<\/p>\n 1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker:<\/p>\n i) The halving is half as important every four years;<\/p>\n ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022);<\/p>\n iii) Blow-up risk is\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/F9ybjHEeB5<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Institutional Trends Outrun Old Rhythms<\/p>\n Hougan highlights that ETFs are the new growth engine\u2014and they run on a 5\u201310 year timeline. Spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/a> launched in January\u202f2024 and have since taken in over $10 billion in net inflows. That steady stream can\u2019t be pinned to a single four\u2011year blip.<\/p>\n Pensions and endowments are getting ready too. Many big investors only started talking crypto last year, and it takes quarters or years for them to clear internal hurdles. When they finally jump in, their billions could reshape markets far beyond retail waves.<\/p>\n DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???<\/p>\n The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan<\/a> says we\u2019re going higher in 2026.<\/p>\n Early profit takers will be left behind!!!<\/p>\n Full break down with @JSeyff<\/a> and @Matt_Hougan<\/a> in comments pic.twitter.com\/Ffn9penapN<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Kyle Chass\u00e9 \/ DD (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Regulation Gains Traction This Year<\/p>\n According to Hougan, regulatory clarity began in January\u202f2025 with new custody rules, tax guidelines and licensing regimes. Those steps cut systemic risk and pave the way for banks and asset managers to roll out crypto services on their platforms.<\/p>\n