As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to set new all-time highs (ATH) \u2013 reaching $123,218 on Binance on July 13 \u2013 on-chain data reveals a shift in holder behavior that could threaten the cryptocurrency\u2019s bullish momentum.<\/p>\n
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor IT Tech, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) \u2013 those holding BTC for over 155 days \u2013 have transitioned into net distribution, suggesting seasoned investors are engaging in profit-taking.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, short-term holders (STH) \u2013 those who have held BTC for less than 155 days \u2014 have recently turned net positive, indicating they are buying into BTC\u2019s current rally in anticipation of further gains.<\/p>\n
Historical data shows that similar trends among LTH and STH were observed back in April 2021 and November 2023. During both these instances, BTC witnessed a cooling phase or a local top when spot demand faded.<\/p>\n
In their analysis, IT Tech suggested keeping an eye on exchange inflows and funding rates for confirmation. If spot BTC inflows to crypto exchanges surge, it could hint that sell-pressure is likely to increase, which may derail the digital asset\u2019s bullish trajectory.<\/p>\n
Supporting this view, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain noted that the Spent Output Value Ranges (SOVR) indicator shows a spike in BTC transfers to exchanges from wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC \u2013 typically associated with whales.<\/p>\n
For the uninitiated, the SOVR indicator tracks on-chain BTC transfers by value buckets to identify which investor segments are active. It helps reveal whether retail, mid-sized, or institutional players are driving market activity.<\/p>\n
This aligns with IT Tech\u2019s observations on long-term holders. If selling pressure intensifies, BTC could correct down to a support level near $111,800.<\/p>\n
Although Bitcoin LTH entering distribution phase, and whales increasing their deposits to crypto exchanges may point toward a potential end for the current rally, not all analysts share the same sentiment.<\/p>\n
For instance, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggests<\/a> BTC may still be undervalued, indicating potential for further upside. If that holds, Bitcoin could climb as high as $150,000 before any major pullback.<\/p>\n Additionally, a fresh injection of $2 billion in liquidity to major crypto derivatives platforms could<\/a> help reignite bullish momentum. However, caution remains warranted.<\/p>\n