As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates just below the $120,000 mark, concerns are mounting over whether the top cryptocurrency\u2019s bullish momentum is fading. However, some analysts believe BTC still has room to grow, citing key on-chain indicators.<\/p>\n
According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin\u2019s rally is not yet over. The analyst points to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator as evidence.<\/p>\n
For context, STH MVRV measures the profitability of Bitcoin held by short-term investors \u2013 typically those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days \u2013 by comparing the current market price to their average purchase price.<\/p>\n
When the STH MVRV is high, it suggests short-term holders are in profit and may sell. On the contrary, a low or negative MVRV indicates undervaluation and potential for further upside.<\/p>\n
Darkfost noted that during the current market cycle, unrealized profits among STH have yet to surpass the 42% threshold. Historically, every time the STH MVRV reaches around 1.35 \u2013 implying a 35% unrealized profit \u2013 it has triggered a wave of profit-taking, followed by short-term price pullbacks.<\/p>\n
As of now, the STH MVRV stands at approximately 1.15, well below the profit-taking zone. The analyst attributes this to the STH realized price exceeding $100,000 for the first time in Bitcoin\u2019s history on July 11. At the time of writing, this realized price has risen above $102,000, providing BTC with a robust support base.<\/p>\n
To clarify, STH realized price refers to the average price at which all Bitcoin held by short-term holders was acquired. When Bitcoin\u2019s current market price remains above this level, it reflects growing market confidence among newer investors.<\/p>\n
Darkfost added that BTC could rise another 20\u201325% before the STH MVRV reaches its critical level again. If this projection holds, Bitcoin could potentially hit<\/a> $150,000 before the next wave of widespread profit-taking.<\/p>\n Bitcoin may also benefit from fresh liquidity entering the market. Fellow CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha recently highlighted<\/a> a $2 billion USDT deposit into major derivatives trading platforms, signaling potential leverage buildup.<\/p>\n Similarly, favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to support risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The recent weakness in the USD has fuelled<\/a> optimism around capital rotating into cryptocurrencies and other high risk-reward assets.<\/p>\nFresh Liquidity May Help, But Exercise Caution<\/h2>\n